Forecast of pig price trend in 23 years

The trend of pig price in 23 years is unpredictable.

In 2022, the average price of live pigs decreased by 8% year-on-year, and the national price of live pigs showed the characteristics of rapid rise and fall in stages. The main reasons for the decline in pig prices are the phased increase in supply and the sluggish consumption.

Before and after the National Day holiday in 2022, the ratio of stall pressing and secondary fattening exceeded 10%. These stall-holding and secondary fattening pigs are concentrated in mid-February 2022 and mid-October 2023/kloc-0, which also has an impact on the national pig price.

At the beginning of 65438+February in 2022 and 65438+1October in 2023, the pig price did not rise as expected by farmers, and the panic slaughter amplified the price stampede effect. After the release of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control on the consumer side, the consumption of catering groups declined instead of rising, the indoor consumption dropped sharply, and the southern bacon shrank by nearly 30%.

Summarize the historical law of pig price

The seasonal price of live pigs in China usually falls to the bottom in March and April, and even reaches the peak in July and August. In some years, due to the influence of events in the industry, the price deviated from the seasonal law.

It is easy to understand that the price bottomed out in March and April. After the Spring Festival, the supply is normal, the demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand, which is caused by a holiday effect. The weather is hot in July and August, and the demand for pork is weak. High temperature in summer reduces the feed intake and net energy production of pigs, thus reducing the slaughter weight in July and August.