What kind of signal did Vanke release to refresh the industry record with a fixed increase of 65.438+0.5 billion?

The "grain storage plan" proposed by Vanke at the end of last year is accelerati

What kind of signal did Vanke release to refresh the industry record with a fixed increase of 65.438+0.5 billion?

The "grain storage plan" proposed by Vanke at the end of last year is accelerating. On the evening of February 1 2, Vanke officially issued a plan to issue no more than 1 1 billion shares to no more than 35 specific targets. This equity financing, which will reach a maximum of 65.438+0.5 billion yuan, has directly set a new record for the real estate industry in the past eight years. As a recognized "wind vane" in the real estate industry, what kind of signal did Vanke release?

The cold wind has been raging for more than two years, and the expectation of recovery in the real estate industry is even stronger.

At the extraordinary shareholders' meeting in May 438+February last year, Vanke Yu Liang sent a positive signal to the outside world, saying, "In the past few months, I feel that the twilight is gradually turning into dawn." Now, two months later, Yu Liang's "Dawn" is being fulfilled one by one. ...

1On the evening of February 2, Vanke released the plan for the non-public offering of A shares in 2023, and planned to issue no more than 1 1 billion shares to no more than 35 specific targets, accounting for 9.46% of Vanke's total share capital before the issuance, and the total planned fundraising amount was no more than1500 million yuan.

Looking at the financing scale alone, Vanke's fixed increase has surpassed the 654.38+025 billion fixed increase plan proposed by Poly a few days ago, which is the largest "blood-enriching" plan since the reopening of real estate equity financing.

At the same time, the fixed increase has also set a new record for the financing scale of the real estate industry in the past eight years, which is equivalent to the financing amount of China Merchants Shekou's share swap to absorb the merger of China Merchants Real Estate.

For Vanke, which has always been cautious, such a big move is "really rare". As a recognized "wind vane" in the real estate industry, what kind of signal did Vanke release?

Grain storage

It is understood that among the 654.38+05 billion funds raised by Vanke this time, in addition to supplementing the working capital of 4.5 billion yuan, the remaining funds will be invested in 6543.8+0654.38+0 real estate projects under construction in Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Xi 'an and Chengdu. This is consistent with the news disclosed by Vanke at the extraordinary shareholders' meeting two months ago.

In June+February, 5438 last year, at the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2022, Vanke deliberated and passed the Proposal on Submitting the General Meeting of Shareholders to Give the Board of Directors General Authorization to Issue Company Shares, which authorized the board of directors of the company to decide not to issue more than 20% of the issued A shares of the company. The fixed increase plan announced this time is a specific A-share issuance plan formulated by Vanke under this authorization.

However, Shenzhen Metro did not appear in the pre-determined list of additional targets. Some Vanke people analyzed the reporter, which may be limited by the refinancing rules.

"From the past, Shenzhen Metro Group has always been very supportive of Vanke, but according to the" Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Non-public Issuance of Shares by Listed Companies "implemented since 2020, the largest shareholder of non-controlling shareholders does not belong to the issue target that the board of directors can determine in advance. Therefore, Shenzhen Metro Group, as the largest shareholder of Vanke but not the controlling shareholder, even if it intends to participate in this fixed increase, it cannot be determined as the issue target in advance at this stage. "

In the eyes of many people in the industry, there is a high probability that Shenzhen Railway will participate in the fixed increase. Zhu Xu, the secretary-general of Vanke, once revealed that it was actually put forward by Vanke's internal discussion, and then negotiated with Shenzhen Railway, and Shenzhen Railway also agreed to put forward this proposal as a major shareholder.

At the shareholders' meeting in June 5438+February last year, Huang Liping, general manager of Shenzhen Railway and non-executive director of Vanke, also said that at the current time, carrying out equity financing will help Vanke seize the future-oriented development opportunities and bring better development. Shenzhen Railway also hopes that the speed of Vanke's share capital expansion should match the quality and speed of the company's development, and constantly improve the gold content of shareholders' investment.

Back to Vanke itself, since the financing of housing enterprises opened last year, although Vanke missed the "first arrow", in the subsequent grain storage plan, Vanke's every move almost touched the ceiling of the industry.

165438+1October 2 1 day, Vanke announced that it plans to issue direct debt financing of no more than 50 billion yuan. Among them, Vanke has expressed its intention to register and issue 28 billion yuan of shelves to the dealer association. As of Vanke's announcement, its issuance scale was the largest among the housing enterprises that registered and issued on the shelf at that time.

In the following three days, Vanke successively signed comprehensive agreements with Agricultural Bank, Bank of Communications, Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank, and obtained an intentional comprehensive credit line of 300 billion yuan. From the perspective of the whole industry, Vanke's credit line support is also the ceiling of the industry.

From "returning to the pillar position of real estate" to "three arrows", and then upgrading the ratings of many real estate enterprises, the external environment has repeatedly sent financing easing signals to the industry. As a "informer" in the silver age of real estate, Vanke seems to smell new opportunities this time.

repair

Before the arrival of new opportunities, Vanke's primary task is to ensure cash flow.

First, let's look at the flow of billions of dollars. Vanke listed 1 1 real estate projects in the announcement, most of which are located in first-and second-tier cities. According to Vanke's internal calculation, among the 1 1 projects, there are three projects with a return on investment below 5%. Industry analysis, generally speaking, because of some unpredictable costs in project construction, projects with a return on investment of less than 5% will basically lose money.

These three low-profit projects, or Vanke's profile in the past two years. In 20021year, Vanke was hotly debated in the industry because of its low profit from land acquisition. However, judging from the delivery cycle of the 1 1 project in the list, as time goes by, the expected profit of the project is also rising slowly.

However, it is undeniable that high land prices and the downward trend of the industry have brought considerable pressure on Vanke's cash level. According to the report of Vanke in the third quarter of 2022, from June to September, 2022, Vanke achieved a total contracted sales area of 19369 square meters, and the contracted sales amount was 3146.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%.

Less is sold, but the debt to be repaid will not shrink year-on-year. During this period, Vanke's cash flow in 2022 has shown a net outflow trend. In the words of Vanke's senior management team, there is no good match between project expansion, development rhythm and sales return.

Due to the existence cycle of real estate development, the mismatch influence of each time node in the continuous operation of real estate companies is not fleeting. If Vanke wants to rebuild its competitiveness, it must find financing to expand its cash flow. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that it chose to stand grain in a big way.

However, in terms of fixed pricing, the market still has dissatisfied voices.

According to Vanke's fixed-income announcement, its fixed-income price is "not less than 80% of the average price of the previous 20 trading days". Some investors bluntly said that the fixed increase will dilute shareholders' rights and interests, and the fixed discount can be said that the company "does not care about the stock price".

In addition, from the perspective of dividends, the accumulated undistributed profits before the issuance are enjoyed by the new and old shareholders after the completion of the issuance in proportion to the shares after the issuance. In view of Vanke's undistributed profit of 65.438+054 billion yuan, it is also an obvious loss for the original shareholders.

There are few laws in the world that have both. To some extent, Vanke's demand for funds may conflict with the interests of shareholders in the secondary market under the current situation. It is pointed out that this kind of conflict is hardly negative. If it is beneficial to Vanke's operation, it may be good to occupy a high ground in the next stage of industry reshaping.

strike

Looking through the past operating records, we can find that Vanke's last equity financing was in 2007, the year before the opening of the real estate golden decade.

For the equity financing again after 16, Vanke said that the purpose of this non-public offering is to respond to the call of national policies, solidly promote the high-quality construction of the project, and help the company make a smooth transition to a new development model. On the other hand, the company intends to optimize the capital structure through this non-public offering, further enhance its financial strength and risk resistance, and lay the foundation for long-term and stable development in the future.

In short, there are two purposes: one is to continue the high-quality delivery mentioned by management; The second is to continue to collect grain and prepare for the next step.

Since the end of last year, Vanke has made great moves in succession. Whether it is external financing or internal management, Vanke is obviously more "active" than before.

The most obvious change is the transfer of internal managers. On February 2, Vanke announced the personnel adjustment again, and the heads of several cities in the southern region were rotated, mainly involving core areas such as Xiamen Company, Foshan Company, Huizhou Company and Dongguan Company.

Prior to this, Vanke also changed the Shanghai regional executives from June 65438 to February 65438. Zhang Hai, CEO of Vanke Development and Operation Headquarters, no longer serves as the regional head of Shanghai, and Wu Yong, former deputy general manager of Shanghai and general manager of Hangzhou Company, took over. 65438+1October 6, Zhou Rong, the former general manager of Dongguan Vanke, became the general manager of Shenzhen Vanke, and Dong Li, deputy general manager of Southern Region, took over the post of general manager of Dongguan Vanke; 65438+1On October 30th, Ceng Wei, former deputy general manager of Vanke Beijing, became the chief partner of Northeast China, and Fang Lin, former chief partner of Northeast China, became the general manager of Beijing Company.

Vanke gave reasons in response to media interviews, saying that Vanke has always paid attention to "matching people" in personnel arrangements, and personnel transfer is mainly based on the business characteristics and operational difficulties of each region.

For the large-scale personnel turnover of enterprises, real estate analyst Yan Yuejin believes that once enterprises have such actions, it shows their expectations of laying a solid foundation for development and boosting business in the new year. Therefore, the enterprises that make adjustments are highly flexible, which is bound to inject new impetus into business development in the new year.

Editor in Charge | Chen Bin