Why did the Morgan family ascend to the throne of finance?

Why did the Morgan family ascend to the throne of finance? "Take a gamble!"

At the beginning of the 20th century, when China was still fighting with warlords in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China, the Morgan family had been the "royal family" of Wall Street for decades. This kind of nobility is very different from the royal family. Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Cohen Loeb may all be called "nobles", but only the Morgan family dares to call them "royalty". Three generations of Morgan family: J.S. Morgan (Old Morgan), J.P. Morgan (Old Morgan) and Jack Morgan (Little Morgan) are uncompromising on Wall Street. If they want to put their ass on the market, they have to shake it three times.

However, in the middle of19th century, the European financial royal family was not Morgan, and Morgan was not ranked at that time. The royal families at that time were Rothschild family and Bahrain family. At that time, Morgan did not fart. The reason why old Morgan can become a big shot from a medium role is to put all your eggs in one basket-"Show your cards, I bet my life!" "People have no windfall, no wealth, and horses have no night grass and no fat. Old Morgan has been preparing his horse in the financial circle for many years, waiting for it, and waiting for it is such a big gamble that "if you win the bet, you win everything".

This gamble is the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. Prussian troops defeated France in Sedan, captured the French emperor Charles Louis Napolé on Bonaparte alive, and arrived at the gates of Paris. In the history of China people, when we talk about war, we always talk only about strategy, morale and popular support, and seldom talk about money. However, fighting costs money. Even if you lose the peace talks and cede land for compensation, you have to pay money. To put it mildly, fighting is money, and negotiation is also for money. For example, more than half of the demise of the Qing Dynasty was exhausted by several huge reparations.

The French government had no choice but to borrow money everywhere, but it ran into a wall everywhere and there was no way to ask for help. Bismarck, the "bloody prime minister" of Prussia, sent someone to warn these bankers that France might default on its debts at that time. Among the major financial families at that time, the Bahrain family was Prussia's behind-the-scenes financial resources, and it was certainly impossible to lend money to Prussia's enemies; As for the Rothschild family, they think France is dead and dare not borrow money. Many other big bankers in the British financial circle are trapped in the debt defaults of Mexico and Venezuela, and they have no time to take care of themselves. The loan cycle in Latin America: loan-default-more loans, not only in recent decades, but also has a long tradition.

At this time, old Morgan made a move, and he decided to help France to raise a large sum of money, amounting to 65.438 million pounds, equivalent to 50 million dollars. This 50 million dollars is completely different from today's 50 million dollars, which is enough to pay for an international war. The Rothschild family helped old Morgan deliver the message by sending their "treasure of the town"-homing pigeons. Don't underestimate this homing pigeon. In those days, without telephones, MSN and satellites, people could only get ahead by homing pigeons. At that time, Rothschild learned about Napoleon's failure in Waterloo through homing pigeons and made a fortune in the bond market. Rothschild, Morgan Sr and China's martial arts novels all know that information is productivity.

Old Morgan led a group of banks to help France sell these bonds. These bonds are sold at a discount of 15 points. In other words, the bonds with a face value of 65.438 million yuan were sold to others at the price of 85 yuan, and the French government still paid back the money at the price of 65.438 million yuan at maturity. The French government is very dissatisfied with this discount, but there is nothing it can do. Even at this discount, bonds are not easy to sell.

The greater risk of these bonds-in hindsight, a greater chance of "grabbing money"-appeared. 187 1 year Paris fell, and soon the Paris commune uprising broke out. The uprising frightened the holders of French bonds, and the bond price plummeted from 85 points to 55 points-its face value was 100 points. In other words, if you spend 55 yuan to buy French bonds, you can get back 100 yuan in a few years, but many people still don't-judging from the war situation at that time, it is likely that 55 yuan's capital will not be recovered and all its money will be lost.

This is a gamble to establish Morgan's position on Wall Street. Old Morgan changed his usual cautious character, and frantically bought bonds, putting all his net worth and all the reputation and hopes of the Morgan family in the financial circle on the line. We must pay attention to the fact that old Morgan was by no means a gambler who was "barefoot and not afraid of wearing shoes". By today's standards, the Morgan family is already a prominent aristocrat. Even if they don't take the risk, they can live a "brilliant" life.

Old Morgan is not a fairy. He can't predict the future with 100%, but in fact, the future is unpredictable, because the forecaster himself-including old Morgan, Bismarck and Rothschild family-is also a chess player, not a pure bystander. By the way, the so-called "uncertainty theory" and "reflexivity principle" that Soros talked about during the Southeast Asian financial crisis in those years refer to this phenomenon of "chess game and players".

Old Morgan won the bet, won a lot of money and won a mess. Unfortunately, the Paris Commune uprising was quickly suppressed. Only two years later, that is, 1873, the French government repaid the bonds in advance according to the face value of the bonds-100. Think about it, just two years ago, at a price of 55 points, these bonds were still junk bonds that no one dared to ask for. This once-in-a-century opportunity is a gift from heaven and a test of courage.

If we only used weak rationality and pale "investment theory", old Morgan would not make such a "crazy" genius bet. At that moment, old Morgan, the gambler, put all his possessions on a gambling game that might disappear overnight in the rain of bullets and corpses, and said with a calm smile, "I bet my life." Ask yourself, if the gambling of that year reappears, do you have the courage to "gamble"? Don't say "I have" in such a hurry, it takes hundreds of years to train a Morgan! (Fan Weifeng)

Source: Global Brand Network