Will there be a gap between those who buy a house and those who don't?

There will definitely be a big gap between those who buy a house now and those who don't!

From the point of view of self-occupation, there is no need to worry about paying rent and the landlord taking back the house at any time after buying a house. If you buy a house with a loan, the mortgage is similar to the rent, but after a few decades, the house will be your own! This is also a lot of wealth.

From the perspective of investment, real estate is still the most valuable investment product. As long as the location and location are chosen properly, the risk of loss is very small. In the long run, as long as the national regulatory policies are appropriate and administrative means are combined with market means, the possibility of real estate collapse is very small.

The country's real estate market should still have a dividend period of twenty or thirty years. There should be no problem getting on the bus at this stage, but the best time should not be now. Friends who didn't buy a house before 20 16 will find that the house price is getting higher and higher, and now they can't even afford a house. This trend will not change for some time to come!

However, any asset and investment are risky, so we should pay attention to learning to put eggs in several baskets. If you blindly put all your assets in real estate, there are still some risks. After all, the real estate market has many circulation links, slow flow, large capital occupation and long time, which is not conducive to currency realization in an emergency.

The gap between those who buy a house and those who don't will probably get bigger and bigger in the future! Not only will the gap in the future become larger and larger, but the gap now is actually very large. Relevant views are shared as follows for your reference.

0 1, 300,000 yuan to buy a house now, 10 years later, how many assets will there be?

Suppose you buy a house with 1000000, with a down payment of 300000 and a loan of 700000, with a loan of10 year and an interest rate of 5.39%. The monthly payment is 7559 yuan.

10 years later, the house slaves will have their own houses. According to the current control target, the average annual increase of urban housing prices will not exceed 5%. 10 years later, the asset price of this house is1630,000.

That is to say, if we spend 300,000 yuan now and pay 10 years later, the market price of this house will be about 1.63 million.

02,300,000 yuan will be deposited in the bank and then rented./kloc-how many assets will there be in 0/0 years?

Now, if you don't buy a house with 300,000 yuan, but deposit the money in the bank to pay interest, and use self-discipline to save all the monthly loans, how much will it be in 10 years?

(1) principal: 300,000 yuan;

⑵ Interest: According to 3.25% of the five-year deposits in Bank of Ningbo, the annual interest of 10 is 97,500 yuan;

⑶ Monthly payment: 7559 *12 *10 = 907080 yuan;

(4) Rent expenditure: 2000 *12 *10 = 240,000;

Accumulated assets in 10 year: 300,000+97500+907080-240,000 yuan = 1064580 yuan, or about1060,000 yuan.

Taking 10 as the cycle, the gap between those who have money to buy a house and those who don't is 1.63 million VS 106 million!

This is actually a very intuitive comparison. /kloc-How many assets are there after 0/0 years can explain the gap between buying a house and not buying a house. It should be conservative to calculate the price increase according to the annual increase of 5%. This is actually not a rise in prices, but a natural rise in asset prices caused by inflation caused by economic development. The rationality of an annual increase of 5% will be explained later.

This is only a comparative calculation of 10 years. If it is extended to 20 years, the gap between those who buy a house and those who don't will be even greater.

0 1, the basic understanding of inflation

From the reform and opening up to now, is the economy inflation or deflation? We don't need to look at statistics. According to our intuition, over 95% of the past 40 years have been inflation.

With the continuous growth of China's economic volume, its economic toughness will be stronger, and the trend of stable economic development is still hard to stop. Then the economic situation in the next 10 year will still be dominated by inflation.

At present, it is an indisputable fact that the currencies of various countries are oversold. Under this trend, the price increase caused by currency devaluation caused by currency oversold is irreversible.

That is to say, in the jungle of the world, under the circumstances that it is difficult to fundamentally change the world monetary system at present and in the foreseeable future, the price increase is irreversible, and the rising trend of house prices as a kind of price will also be irreversible.

02, the past inflation rate analysis.

From the past 10 year, that is, from 20 10 year to 20 19 year, the average inflation rate was 4.92% (the previous answer was 4.59%, because I didn't look at the table data, so I will correct it here), which is basically 5% per year, which is a relatively balanced inflation rate.

Why does the property market control target set the price increase at no more than 5% per year?

It is clear after reading the data in the above table! In fact, this range is not the rise in house prices, but the rise in prices caused by inflation. This is a natural reaction, and it is also the result of the irreversible rise in prices caused by the increase in monetary input after the economic volume increases year by year.

03. Analysis of future inflation rate

Although 4.92% is the past data, this 4.92% is still a relatively balanced inflation rate, avoiding the high inflation rate in 2008 and 2009.

After the epidemic this year, the inflation rate will come out at the end of the year, and the average inflation rate may exceed 5% in 201-2020, but it may come down again next year with the gradual recovery of the economy.

Generally speaking, the average annual inflation rate of 10 in the past was 4.92%, which is of great reference value to the average annual inflation rate of 10 in the future. Given the economic characteristics and structure of China, the future inflation rate of 10 should be inseparable from this data.

It should be said that assets are the most intuitive gap, but in addition to the asset gap, there are many personal feelings gaps.

The quality of life in 0 1 and 10 years is often different.

The quality of life is often different between renting a house and living in your own house. The living quality and living experience of renting houses are often worse. Most landlords are still unwilling to spend more money on comfortable facilities and equipment. Facilities and equipment may be "cheap goods", which are not easy to use and have a high failure rate. Tenants often have to "make do" with living, so the quality of living can not reach the quality of self-housing.

02. Renting a house feels drifting, and owning a house has a more sense of belonging.

Renting is very unstable. If the landlord wants to take back his own residence or sell his house, he must cancel the contract in advance and find another new house, so it is difficult to feel a sense of belonging.

If you live in your own house, no one can drive you away; In a city, there is more sense of belonging and identity, it is easier to establish your own circle, and it is more psychologically integrated into a city.

03. Additional attributes vary greatly.

A typical example is the bank credit loan. People with the same income, one has a house and the other rents a house. The former may be able to apply for a credit loan of about 300,000 yuan, while the latter may find it difficult to apply for a credit loan of 50,000 yuan when renting a house.

04, the soft power difference is big.

For example, the success rate of signing a bill in front of business partners is very different between those who have a house and those who don't. In the eyes of secular businessmen, owning a house not only means stronger economic ability, but also means that the risk of the other party running away is lower. As the saying goes, "A monk can run away but not a temple."

Generally speaking, there is a big gap between assets and other aspects. It is suggested that those who just need it can buy it as soon as possible, and those who can't buy it temporarily should also think about these gaps, plan their finances rationally, and buy a house as soon as possible.

0 1, the correct concept of home ownership

Ma Yun said on 20 17 that after 8 years, the house price will be like an onion!

This sentence may have influenced some people. If these young people were going to buy a house at that time, but didn't buy it in the end, they would probably say hello to him before going to bed at night.

Similarly, many people now don't know what to do in the face of the property market after the epidemic. Some people, including some big bosses, are saying that there is a surplus of houses, which may be difficult in the future.

They may mean well, but the question is, what are your real needs? You are afraid of being knocked down, but the question is, do you have hair now? No hair. What's wrong with worrying about being cut? What if the "house sister" and "landlord" are really cut down on a large scale? How much will a house built on 9.6 million square kilometers lose? Aren't they worried?

So you can listen and watch more, but you should also think and analyze more according to your own situation.

02. Suggestions on buying a house

Just one sentence: do what you need!

If you want to buy a house, try to buy a matching house. Comfortable living is happiness; If you want to send your children to school, buy a school district to solve the problem of children going to school without delay; Improve family living, buy a bigger house, change a new house as soon as possible, and so on.

In short, buying a house according to your own needs and priorities is often not wrong.

Therefore, the gap between people who buy a house and those who don't buy a house will become bigger and bigger in the future, and this gap may become bigger and bigger with the passage of time. Under the background of sustainable development of national economy, house price, as a kind of price, is likely to rise with inflation, but the real estate industry has been adjusted from a high-speed development state to a stable development state, and the future price increase will slow down, but the real estate industry and house price are still stable, so it is reasonable to buy a house if there is demand.

Buy a house! Buy a house! Buy a house! The first problem that modern people solve after integrating into society is to buy a house. But now that house prices are soaring, it really costs a lot of money to buy a house. Many people don't buy, don't buy, and are scared. So I chose to rent a house.

For renting a house, the most intuitive benefit is that you don't have to pay a down payment, which can be said to be the reason why many people rent a house. However, although renting a house for a lifetime is a helpless choice, it is actually a self-deceiving choice. The trick is that there is nothing left in the end of renting a house, and all the money is spent on rent. Because the rent will rise in the future, the income ratio is expected to remain, and there is also a lot of money to support for a lifetime in this state.

For those of us who have already bought a house, the current development of the property market is still very good. Although various regulatory policies are still deepening, house prices are still rising against the trend. It can be said that for people who have already bought a house, their assets are constantly growing. The continuous growth of assets is the most direct benefit of buying a house.

Since people who have already bought a house should get benefits, those who choose to rent a house should continue to pay. In this way, there will be a big gap between those who have a house and those who don't.

For example, the current 6.5438+0 million house has been loaned for 20 years, and finally the value of the house has risen to 8 million. If we throw away the cost assets, we can increase by more than 6 million yuan.

But for people who don't buy a house, the monthly rent is almost catching up with the monthly payment. Twenty years later, everyone spent the same amount of money, but saved 300 thousand down payment. If you save it for 20 years, you can finally withdraw 600 thousand with interest. However, a down payment of 600,000 yuan and 20 years to buy a house are far from enough. In this way, the gap comes out. Although the people who bought the house lived in it, they still left something behind. If you do small business, you can earn some money by mortgage.

Here, old J doesn't want to preach how good it is to buy a house, but this is the trend. If you don't buy it now, it will cost more to buy a house in the future. It is expected that you will buy a house sooner or later, so let's do it early.

The gap will be magnified n times!

For example:

A and B are also in second-tier cities. A man has 6.5438+0 million cash, and B man also has 6.5438+0 million cash.

A choose down payment 1 10,000 and mortgage 500,000 to buy a flat of 89 square meters. Unit price 17000 yuan/flat. B man chooses to deposit his money in the bank for 5 years, assuming that the interest is 5% per year (now it is generally around 3.8).

Five years later, the gap between the two may be twice or even five times.

1, the development of second-tier cities is relatively fast, so the construction of a city needs a lot of money, so the best and fastest source of funds comes from land auction. With the rising floor price of land, it will drive up the price of new dishes (flour is expensive, will bread be cheap? )

The population of a second-tier city flows in every year. These people are the so-called takers. After all, people go higher, and many third-and fourth-tier cities or rural youths will go to first-and second-tier cities. With such an influx of people, the property market will be more stable. (only a catcher will rise. )

3, lever! A uses leverage to buy a house, and the principal is only 1 10,000 +5 years interest. When the total house price rises to 300, in fact, the actual profit of A is at least 50%. When the property is sold, A will probably estimate 2.7 million yuan (including principal). Then B is only 6.5438+0.25 million (including principal).

The above is only the calculation of second-tier cities. If you are in a first-tier city, the gap may be even greater. Of course, don't worry about the correctness of the figures I expressed above, just grasp the meaning. If you have to get to the bottom of it, you can also calculate the ratio of house price increase and bank financing in your city.

People who buy houses live and have a stable home. People who haven't bought a house rent someone else's house, and others want to take it back, so you have to go outside and look for a house. It's disgusting. If a friend asks your address, he must give you a short notice. Where else would I find you? Children also have trouble learning. The school transferred from this school has affected the performance and is under great pressure. They certainly can't keep up with their studies. What should the child do?

The gap between buying a house and not buying a house will get bigger and bigger in the future! Because you can't make money as fast as the increase in house prices, just like a marathon, the first runner and the second, third, fourth and fifth runner behind will lengthen with time, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger.

Nowadays, young people pay a down payment when buying a house, and they have been house slaves for decades before they have their own houses. This traditional method is clumsy and inefficient, which is equivalent to an old cow pulling a cart. It is thankless and takes a long time. Sleeping deeply may lead to unemployment at any time, resulting in the risk of default. Then the house will be repossessed by the bank, and the life will be in vain.

According to news media reports, the manager of a bank in Shenzhen said: In March 2020, about 3,000 people in a bank outlet had their mortgages cut off, and in May, about 1.6 million people, one outlet! The number of Arifa auction houses in China reached 820,000 sets, up 100 times year-on-year, mainly due to the poor supply of houses.

To buy a house, you should take shortcuts, take detours, use your brains and be flexible, and you can easily get a house! Through the way of "down payment becomes full payment", you can own your own house within three to five years. Now I have 5 houses, 4 in first-tier cities, 1 in third-tier cities. I don't have to pay, but I bought them all out!

How can I turn the down payment into full payment? For example, if you want to buy a 3 million house, the first 30% of the taxes and fees need 6.5438+0 million. If there is a shortage of investment, it may become 3 million in three years and 65.438+million in ten years, which is much larger than bank interest, wealth management and fund return! This is not bragging, it is determined by the profiteering industry factors of antiques, and this is the principle of "first payment becomes full payment": first payment-shortage-full payment.

After three years, you can buy this house for 3 million yuan, and you can own this house without going to the bank for 30 years. The speed is faster than before 10 times, and you can earn this house while lying down! If you hand over the house in the traditional way, from the age of 30 to 60, you will own this dilapidated house that is about to become a dangerous house until you are old, hunchbacked and white-haired.

And with my "down payment to full payment" method, 27 years in advance, you will have a brand-new house at the age of 33, and you will actually own it. You don't have to put the real estate license in the bank, live in peace of mind and sleep comfortably!

I have been engaged in Tianhuang business for more than 20 years. I have sold more than ten pieces of Tianhuang stone, and the price range is several hundred thousand to several million, so I can afford five suites. According to the current house price, the total price is more than 20 million, and the houses bought are basically paid in one lump sum, without having to pay the house or be a house slave. Therefore, to buy a house, buy Tian Huang first and then buy a house! Tian Huang is the nemesis of confession!

Because Tianhuang is the fastest appreciated collection and a popular antique collection, it has never fallen in price. Tianhuang rose from 5,000 yuan a gram in 1995 to 200,000 yuan a gram in 20 19, and may rise to 100,000 yuan a gram in10.

The price of gold is basically in the same place, there is no change, and the distance from Tian Huang is getting farther and farther, and it is impossible to catch up. Gold is a pauper in front of Tian Huang, a pauper. Even 500 yuan can't reach a gram. I've been poor all my life, and I'm still poor like this!

20 17, 1 month, at an auction in Xiamen, Fujian, a Tian Huangshi weighing 1725 grams sold for 392 million yuan at a unit price of 220,000 yuan per gram. The fiery degree of the field is seen!

In addition, investing in Tianhuang is a safe, reliable and low-risk project. It will not be like other industries such as stocks, futures and physical stores. Nothing, debt becomes "Lao Lai"! Because Tian Huang is in your hands, there is always a chance to make a comeback, and you will never lose. As the saying goes, don't panic if you have food in your hand, and you will be free if you have treasure in your hand! The following are photos of my four houses in first-tier cities:

Yes, it's actually the same as stocks. If it goes up, it will go up by one square. If it goes down, it will go down by one square. The market is still relatively stable this year. If you want to live by yourself, you can buy it with this money. After all, houses are fixed assets, and China's economy will definitely develop in a good direction in the future. If you don't have a house in your name and are still renting a house, then you have to think about a problem. Did your landlord take it?

Of course it will get bigger and bigger. You can buy a house without a loan. Loans to buy a house, rather than less, not only unhappy, but also under pressure to open the gap between the rich and the poor with people who have not bought a house. As long as you struggle and work hard, you will find that you have no worries about buying a house with the same income, and those who buy a house are very poor. ...

Whether the gap between buying a house and not buying a house will become bigger and bigger depends on the trend of our real estate market, and more importantly, whether our decision on resources is the key point of buying a house.

Don't choose the highest or lowest city. Choose a second-tier city, with an average price of 20,000 square meters, 100 square meters, the cost of buying a house is 2 million, the loan is 600,000 yuan down payment10.4 million, the loan interest rate is 5.63%, and the monthly payment for 20 years is 9,700 yuan. After 20 years of supply, the house already belongs to us. Most second-tier cities in China are still in an upward trend, but the upward trend is basically controlled between 5% regions. Therefore, after 20 years, the total real estate in China will reach 4.2 million, and we can leverage 2.2 million with 600,000 funds.

Instead of buying a house, I took 600,000 yuan as a bank wealth management product, and now the highest yield of bank wealth management products is 4%. After 20 years, our total amount is1180,000 yuan. We calculate that the monthly payment of 9700 yuan is also helpful for deposit management. Our monthly deposit amount reaches 10032 yuan, and the total deposit for 20 years = 10032×240 = 2407680. The sum of the two funds is about 3.59 million. In addition, we have to consider renting a house every month, without a house. The usual rent is 3,500 yuan, and the total rent for 20 years is 840,000 yuan, so the total value of not buying a house after 20 years is 2.75 million yuan.

Compared with 2.75 million, 4.2 million is obviously more cost-effective, but we only consider the appreciation of the house, not the price reduction. In the future, the real estate market in China will gradually become saturated. If the house price drops by 5% every year, it is obviously not so cost-effective. The gap between buying a house depends on the appreciation of the house for 20 years. Our wealth will soar a lot, but after the house price falls, our wealth will actually increase.

Whether the house is going up or down, the real estate market will gradually find it difficult to sell in the next 20 years. In 2020, the transaction time of a house and a second-hand house is usually half a year. Twenty years later, more and more people own houses, and the state is constantly regulating the vacancy rate of houses. After 20 years, the house is difficult to realize. If special circumstances occur, the deposits we hold will change our special circumstances very well. In the era when cash was king, cash was better than real estate, now and in the future.

Two: buying a house gives us resource advantages, which is beyond the reach of buying a house.

Buying a house can give us a great resource advantage. As I said just now, in the process of buying a house, it has become one of the important indicators to measure a person's success.

For people who buy a house, they have the top resources to match in marriage. In today's society, they want to get married, have a house, a car and a deposit, among which the house occupies the most important part of us. For people who don't have a house, they can only get married by working very hard. In addition to marriage, there is also the education of children in the future. Nowadays, many houses are bought for children's education. Without houses, it is difficult to stand out in cities. Unless we go to a private school, it is also very necessary for us to meet the medical needs. After buying a house, our household registration fell in the local city to buy the corresponding social security, and the reimbursement rate was relatively large. We can usually reimburse for colds or serious illnesses, and the expenses can be greatly reduced.

With the passage of time, the resource advantages brought by housing will become more and more obvious. After all, getting married, having children, going to school and medical care are all necessary stages in life. Children are not in public schools, and they need to pay sky-high tuition fees every year. In addition, if there is no reimbursement in the hospital, you have to pay a lot of fees here every month, so the gap between buying a house and renting a house is getting bigger and bigger, mainly reflected in the proportion of resource advantages.

Three: the way to make money. Buying a house in the property market is temporarily incomparable.

In 2020, the era that cash is king has been emphasized. From our traditional concept, the house can really increase by 5% every year, and the annual return rate of 2.2 million is around 600,000 yuan 18%, which sounds very eye-catching. However, we can't guarantee that the house has been rising. Even in second-tier cities, housing prices in some second-tier cities in China are declining. In some second-tier cities such as Foshan, Qingdao and Zhengzhou, the rising house prices have indeed brought us wealth appreciation, while the wealth brought by the falling house prices has not increased, but has shrunk.

With 600,000 cash in hand, under such a wide range of investment channels, our return on investment can beat inflation as long as it exceeds 5. 18% every year. Nowadays, people will not rashly choose to invest if the concept of return on investment does not reach 10%. The return of 10% is higher than 18% just calculated for real estate every year. However, considering that this is the rate of return of the original investment channel, we choose more channels. The higher the investment risk, the greater the rate of return, just like investing in real estate, there are ups and downs. Therefore, the cash resources in hand are things that cannot be mentioned to us for the time being when buying a house. The advantage of fairness is that the movement and flow of funds are casual, unlike house prices, which will not bring us the most direct income at all. Many years later, it is normal to hold this huge sum of 600 thousand in your hand, which may be more than 10 times, and your hand has become more mobile.

Four: After many years, whether our real estate market is worth buying and whether the house will definitely rise.

● China's real estate market will not have a considerable situation in the future. After all, in the past three years, the real estate market has been under pressure and its rising potential has gradually decreased. In the future, the number of people born in China will continue to decrease. In 2029, the birth population and the death population will remain at the same level. More importantly, there will be negative growth in 2030. In 2030, China's 60-year-old aging rate has reached 24%. In the future, the value-added space left by China for real estate will only be in the last decade, and the houses that cannot be demanded will become bigger.

● The urbanization rate will also reach the national goal of 70% in the next decade. 10 years later, there was a negative growth in the birth population in China, and the urban population basically reached the peak of inflow. In the future, everyone has a house, and it is not necessary to buy a house. It is very difficult to think about the rise of house prices, and there will be sideways or slow decline.

In the future, the development potential of China real estate market will be further reduced. After 2030, even if there is no price drop, there will be a situation of price without market and sideways consolidation. After all, the population is getting smaller and smaller, and fewer and fewer people need housing. If you have already bought a house, buy it early. If you can't afford it, you really can't afford it, so the future appreciation potential of the house is not as impressive as we thought.

V: Summary

The gap in the future real estate market is getting bigger and bigger, which is mainly reflected in our perspective. If we look at the future appreciation of the house from the perspective of money, it can reach 4.2 million in an ideal state, but it does not rule out that there is a price imbalance or price decline in the real estate market just mentioned, so the difference in value will not be great.

Holding 600 thousand in his hand, he can make financial investment in other businesses. If we seize an opportunity, it may increase our wealth by 65,438+00 times and 8 times. In the end, we can all realize our own freedom of funds, which is also a considerable degree that houses and real estate can't bring us.

The most obvious gap is

In the city, people who don't have houses have been renting houses, constantly looking for rents and constantly changing houses. Make money just to pay the rent.

People who buy houses don't have to worry about rising rents. Tired of running around, there is a warm harbor.