Is the ancient divination prediction really so accurate?

It is difficult for people to accurately evaluate ancient things, and even with the help of archaeologists, it is difficult to completely restore them. So we can only simulate reasoning from the current situation.

Predicting tricks is actually a model, which is neither feudal superstition nor immortal law. In layman's terms, it is a theory. We all have many questions, especially about our own life, good luck and bad luck in life, so we are eager to have a method to predict. Under such demand, divination prediction came into being. But no one can really say that this is completely predictable. If you can, it will be a god. )

At this time of our ancestors, we can think that our brains are open, and we have created many methods, and then we can use these methods to guide our lives. As we can imagine, these methods must be verified by a lot of practice. The ancients attached great importance to divination. On the one hand, the ancient people's understanding of nature or the level of science and technology is far less than now. On the other hand, divination inevitably brought benefits to the ancients. Otherwise, by now, thousands of years have passed, and it has long been eliminated.

According to this reasoning, divination is accurate. But this is a theory, and since it is a theory, it needs to be studied before it can be used. If research is needed, there are bound to be people with high understanding and people with low understanding. Therefore, there are masters who are proficient in divination and ordinary charlatans in history. These masters are gradually deified because of their accurate inference, while ordinary liars are reviled by people. Over time, it has become what we are today.

So back to now, we think so. The model that has been passed down so far is reasonable and accurate, but it is not necessarily perfect and completely accurate. In addition, when we study, we specialize in the technical field and may not be proficient, so the accuracy will be greatly reduced. A proficient master can have magical and accurate effects. Therefore, the forecasting method is indeed accurate, but it is hard to say that the forecasters are uneven.

As for the situation of the ancients, according to our current reasoning, the same is true. Another point that needs special attention is that we often have the habit of looking for a master to predict. If the master's prediction is accurate, we will easily be surprised and amazed, and then we will tell people around us how I did last time and how the master worked. This reputation will soon spread. But if it is not accurate, we usually say, no, don't come next time. But we generally don't publicize how a master is not allowed. Therefore, divination is often good and easy to spread, while bad is often partial. Inferred from this situation, what the ancients said would be greatly discounted if God helped them. This is like saying that the ancients said who slept 100% is accurate, but the actual result is far from this.