Is it better to invest in a house in Hangzhou or a house in the surrounding counties and cities of Hangzhou?

Analyzing the real estate market in Hangzhou and its surrounding areas from the perspective of investment;

If you consider investing, I suggest you consider Hangzhou. Housing markets around Hangzhou (such as Fuyang, Lin 'an, Shaoxing and Huzhou). ) instability, poor resilience, no market value and high investment risk. Give you a few reasons.

1. resilience: first of all, housing prices in Lin' an and Shaoxing seem to rise. With the promotion of G20 and Asian Games, the whole city of Hangzhou is on the rise, and the planning of light rail leads to the price increase of counties and cities around Hangzhou. The housing prices in Lin 'an, Fuyang, Haining and Shaoxing are all influenced by Hangzhou, including Jiaxing, just because it is close to Shanghai. But in contrast, houses in Hangzhou are more flexible and will not be greatly reduced in price because of one or two policy changes or market adjustments. For example, last year's Beijing 930 policy was to adjust the down payment of Beijing residential buildings. The unexpected result turned out to be that all the houses along Beijing collapsed, especially in the three northern counties of Hebei Province. At the same time, the average residential price in 10 Beijing increased by 4% month-on-month. So the resilience must be new first-tier cities > second-tier cities > districts and counties. If it is to be sold at that time, there is basically no trading market in the districts and counties.

2.？ Supply and demand: Fuyang or neighboring Hangzhou has a huge housing stock, with hundreds of thousands of households in one building, and most locals own their own houses, and most of the purchases come from foreign investors. This kind of "investment" can only be regarded as speculation. The real investment is to buy the product before it reaches the value and sell it after it reaches the value. However, because of the mismatch between supply and demand, the price of houses in the surrounding Hangzhou has exceeded the value of their own houses, which is risky and will also affect the market. Then, when the local people have houses and the supply of new houses is sufficient, the sale of second-hand houses can only be sold at a discount, or it may not be sold. If so, to whom? Locals have houses, and the influx of foreign talents, including college students, young couples and young people, will not consider going to Fuyang and Lin 'an, but will only seek better development opportunities in Hangzhou. The rental market is not optimistic. In this case, the rent level and rate of return are definitely not high.

At present, there are 2,000 startup companies in Hangzhou, with a large number of Fortune 500 companies and a large number of young customers who need to buy houses and rent houses. At the same time, 49.5% of college graduates choose to stay in Hangzhou and rarely return to the surrounding second-and third-tier cities. At present, the resident population of Hangzhou is more than 9 million, increasing at the rate of17-200,000 every year, as early as 16 years. With an annual population growth rate of 4. 10%, Hangzhou has become the eighth largest city with the fastest population growth rate in the world. In the long run, the land supply in Hangzhou is far from meeting the population's demand for houses, so many cities adjacent to Hangzhou will have no price and no one will take over, but Hangzhou will not. And the rent in Hangzhou is very high. Take a 50-square-meter serviced apartment on the riverside as an example, the rent can reach 6000-7000 yuan per month.

3. Supporting resources: Hangzhou is the capital city of Zhejiang Province and has the best supporting resources such as education, medical care and transportation in Zhejiang Province. On the one hand, Hangzhou's inclusion in Fuyang and Lin 'an is actually to increase the urban population and become a new front line. On the other hand, it does not rule out that it is to transport people to the surrounding areas in the future and ease the pressure on the urban areas. However, this kind of example is not without before. Before Tokyo, Japan, when the population was 6.5438+million, I felt great pressure in the urban area, so I began to build subways. In this way, after the completion, the population rose from 6.5438+million to 30 million, but there was a large-scale population influx. In fact, this is the result of the people in the surrounding counties and cities pursuing the best resources after the traffic was opened.

Buying a house is not a house, but a scarce resource around the house. The scarcer the resource, the higher the value of the house. This is why Hangcheng was old and small in the 1990s, with no elevator and no basic property. Only relying on Anji Road Community, the school district of Xuejun Middle School can sell for 60,000 or even higher, while the unit price of the best European garden house in Fuyang is less than 20,000. Not all depressions will rise. As the depreciation of the house is getting higher and higher, the property right is getting shorter and shorter, and the value of the house itself is getting lower and lower. If the area where the house is located does not even have government planning and resources, a stable industrial population and high-paying tenants, it is easy to become a pick-up man.