Bali vs Phuket: Which Asian holiday island will win the competition to restart international tourism?

The economy of these popular destinations has collapsed because novel coronavirus has prevented foreign tourists from entering the country, but reopening too much and too soon will "probably" lead to a serious epidemic and a sustained economic recession.

Although dozens of countries are reimposing border closures and travel restrictions to alleviate a new round of COVID-19 epidemic, Bali and Phuket, the two most popular holiday islands in Southeast Asia, are competing to open up to international tourism.

As far as potential benefits and risks are concerned, it is difficult to balance benefits. Since COVID-19 was declared an epidemic more than a year ago, the economies of the two countries have been struggling to support. Bali attracted 6.3 million foreign tourists in 20 19. In 2020, the gross domestic product decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate was 5.6%, almost four times that of the previous year. Phuket received 9.9 million foreign tourists in 20 19. Last year, the national economy shrank by 6. 1%, and 80% of tourism-related enterprises went bankrupt.

Although these official data look ugly, the actual situation may be worse than this.

March 17, Pedestrian Street, Phuket, Thailand

According to the data of the International Labour Organization, the informal employment labor force in Thailand accounts for about 63% of the total labor force. In Indonesia, informal jobs-from freelance drivers and tour guides to laundry workers or roadside vendors selling sand tea sticks-account for 70% of the workforce. Considering that everyone who is unemployed needs to support-a wife and children, a sister who is in college, or a weak grandmother who needs expensive-you can imagine how bad the situation is. According to estimates by non-governmental organizations, in Bali alone, there are 654.38 million+00,000 people-nearly a quarter of the population of Bali-facing an almost impossible task-making ends meet.

Most of the promises made by politicians of the two countries to provide social security for the unemployed and their families have not been fulfilled, or the assistance provided is too limited and short-lived to help the "poor people in COVID-19". According to psychologists' statistics and news reports, domestic violence, depression, suicide, usury, drug abuse, gambling and other unemployment symptoms all exceed the long-term average level, and the crime rates in these two places are also rising.

In February this year, Phuket police arrested 175 people in five days. In Bali, foreigners report bag snatching and burglary almost every hour, which prompted Canggu to launch an application called "Event" to record and draw crime maps.

Reopening international tourism seems to be the only feasible solution, but it should not be at the expense of the COVID-19 case, which made the once prosperous tourist attractions restart the final dilemma.

After the surge of domestic travel, Bali has learned a painful lesson-in the past year, 6.5438+0.2 million people arrived here every day-but at the same time, as of the middle of this year 10, the daily average number of confirmed cases in COVID-19, Bali has increased from less than 654.38+0.000 last year to more than 500 per day. As the numbers began to climb, the government banned countdown and celebrations on New Year's Eve and imposed a curfew on non-essential enterprises at 8 pm.

1After the cumulative infection rate in Thailand doubled to 65438+200,000 in mid-October, the economic recovery of Phuket was also put on hold. The government blamed the surge on illegal migrant workers from neighboring Myanmar, not domestic tourism. However, the results are roughly the same: restaurants, retail stores and hotels have just begun to recover from last year's blockade and have received instructions to limit business hours and the number of tourists. For many business owners in Thailand, this is the last straw to crush the camel.

During the epidemic, all attempts to reopen the island for international tourism failed. Phuket's plan to attract retirees to escape from the cold winter in Europe is a typical example. According to Thailand's Longstay Company, this initiative only attracted about 1000 foreign tourists within three months, which was less than the number of foreign tourists who arrived in Phuket every hour before the outbreak. Facts have proved that few retirees are willing to be isolated in expensive hotels 14 days when they arrive in Phuket, and then isolated in Europe for 5 to 10 days after returning home.

It is said that the Bali government has repeatedly called for the creation of a "tourism bubble" (or a tourism corridor), and even failed to get responses from target countries such as Japan, Australia and South Korea, and finally Singapore politely refused. Why are they responding? These countries have made great sacrifices to alleviate or eliminate the COVID-19 epidemic. Indonesia is the country with the worst epidemic in this region, with 6,543,800 confirmed cases and more than 40,800 deaths.

However, with the global promotion of vaccination programs, the rules of the game have changed, and a more realistic plan to gradually open Phuket and Bali to tourism is gaining momentum. The designers of these reopening plans are keenly aware of their responsibilities, and there is no doubt that they are watching every move of the other camp like eagles.

The first step of these subtle plans is to immunize local residents. So far, Phuket has only distributed 6,000 doses of China Kexing vaccine to frontline medical staff. In Phuket, local authorities and the private sector said they could not wait for the vaccine promotion in Bangkok to be completed. They plan to buy enough vaccines themselves to vaccinate 70% of the residents, so that the island can be reopened to international tourists in July 1, while the traditional holiday start time is 10, and the rest of Thailand plans to open in June 10.

On March 22nd, a local resident was vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine in Denpasar, Bali.

In Indonesia, the government has taken a different and more controversial approach, combining vaccination strategy with economic recovery. Tourism workers in Bali have been included in the second phase of vaccine promotion, with a target of 663,000 people on the island. Another more controversial private vaccination strategy is to allow companies to buy vaccines from overseas vaccine manufacturers and vaccinate their employees. This is also part of an ambitious pilot project that will open Bali to foreign tourists as early as June. However, tourists' activities will be restricted to "green areas": Sanur, a seaside town on the east coast, Nusa Dua, a gathering place of luxury hotels, and Ubud, the spiritual capital of Bali.

During his recent visit to Bali, Indonesian President Joko joko widodo said: "After observing the current situation, I plan to reopen the international border before June or July 2002/KLOC-0." "This is not easy, but if everyone supports this project, it is not impossible for tourism to recover in the middle of the year."

Indonesian President Joko Vidodo arrived in Ubud, Bali on March 16.

The second and more subtle step to restart the economy is to find ways to let foreigners enter the country without making them endure unbearable isolation. A survey conducted by Tourism Thailand in Stockholm found that 62% of the tourists interviewed would consider going to Thailand for a holiday this year if the isolation measures were lifted.

Vaccine passport, negative proof of PCR test and domestic tracking system are the keys to achieve this goal. However, since it is not clear whether vaccinated people will spread COVID-19, these plans have aroused the anger of infectious disease experts.

Dr. Thira Woratanarat, a professor of preventive and social medicine in Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, said, "If the government insists on opening Phuket without taking any isolation measures, I think Thailand is likely to experience a serious epidemic and sustained economic recession within 7- 10 weeks." "Considering the current epidemic situation and the limited vaccination coverage in Thailand, I think it is impossible for Thailand to open in June+10 in 5438."

Dr. Dicky Budiman, an epidemiologist who has helped formulate Indonesian epidemic management strategies for 20 years, said that there is no evidence that Bali's green zone plan will protect local people or tourists from COVID-19 infection.

"The number of people who died of this virus in Bali has exceeded 1000, and the mortality rate is very high, up to 2.4%. This tells us that Bali still lacks early detection of this disease and is ineffective in implementing the detection-tracking-isolation protocol. " "As we are still not sure how these new agreements will be implemented, I think the target date set by the government in June is unrealistic," Boediman said. "They simply don't have enough knowledge or data to understand the real situation in COVID-19. Bali still has a long way to go, and they still have a long way to go, to vaccinate at least 60% of the population. It must be completed in a month or two before it can have the opportunity to consider reopening in June. "

Most shops in Bali are closed.

So far, Jakarta and Bangkok have adopted the opinions of these experts, which reflect the suggestions of the wider medical community and WHO. But the wind is changing. Empty beaches, closed shops, empty hotels and restaurants, chairs piled up on tables. These pictures provide endless voyeuristic materials for overseas media, which Bali and Phuket can't afford. People are starving, losing their homes, stealing for a living and begging on the roadside. Neither Thailand nor Indonesia can afford the consequences of a long border closure.

Sandiaga Uno, Indonesian Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, said during Widodo's visit to Bali: "Hope is on the way."

For the sake of the elderly and other groups who are more likely to be killed by COVID-19, I hope that the recovery of these tourism industries will not backfire in a shocking way.