Take this 3 minutes to avoid travel congestion! Spring Festival travel rush Passenger Flow Forecast in 2020

A few days ago, Gaode Map, Baidu Map and Tencent Map successively published their respective "Travel Peak Forecast Report of Spring Festival travel rush in 2020" by using their own background big data and combining the statistics of Spring Festival travel rush travel peaks by transportation departments and other institutions. (The following will use the Baidu version of Spring Festival travel rush's trip prediction report as data reference. The report released by Baidu Map is divided into five parts: population migration forecast, traffic travel forecast, domestic travel forecast, overseas travel forecast and travel weather forecast. Here, the master chooses two points: population migration and traffic travel for everyone's analysis.

I. Population migration forecast

Although their respective statistical and forecast data sources are different, the final data all reflect a problem. There will be a small peak in Spring Festival travel rush on the 27th of the twelfth lunar month, and it will gradually fall back after the peak in Spring Festival travel rush on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, and will gradually return to normal after the 16th of the first month.

Before the Spring Festival holiday, the national population migration gradually climbed. It is expected that there will be a small peak of population migration on the 27th of the twelfth lunar month, and then the population migration will gradually decline. New Year's Eve is the day with the lowest migration level in the peak of Spring Festival travel rush.

(Baidu map "Spring Festival travel rush Rob People Travel Forecast Report in 2020")

In the second half of the Spring Festival holiday, due to the concentrated demand for returning home, it is expected that the population migration in Spring Festival travel rush will reach its peak on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the national population migration gradually declined again. However, since people began to return after the 15th day of the first month, it is expected that there will be another small peak of population migration on the 16th day of the first month.

Master's suggestion: plan the travel time reasonably, stagger the peak period, return one or two days in advance or ask for leave for one or two days, and then return after the peak period.

Before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the national population will mainly move out of the economically developed "iron triangle" cities such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Among them, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing rank in the top three, among which TOP 10 is the city where people move out, and Guangdong has 4 seats. It is estimated that the TOP 10 cities in China are Zhoukou, Fuyang, Shangrao, Ganzhou, Maoming, Shangqiu, Huanggang, Xinyang, Hengyang and Zhanjiang.

In recent years, the "reverse Spring Festival travel rush craze" will become more and more obvious in the Spring Festival travel rush craze in 2020, and it will become a feature of China. In the past, young people who worked outside the home would go back to their hometown for the Spring Festival, but in recent years, more and more old people and children choose "reverse Spring Festival travel rush craze (or reverse migration)" during the Spring Festival to reunite with their families in big cities and spend the Spring Festival.

It is predicted that before the Spring Festival in 2020, Chongqing, Beijing and Guangzhou will become the top three destination cities of Spring Festival travel rush boom (or reverse migration).

The master suggested that "reverse Spring Festival travel rush tide" can reduce travel congestion to a certain extent, and suggested that families with weak traditional customs can try this different way of celebrating the New Year and experience the "flavor of the year" of other cities.

Second, the traffic forecast

During the Spring Festival, the expressway will usher in a small peak of congestion on the morning of New Year's Day. After all, there is a custom of going back to my parents' home on the second day of the New Year's Eve, and the demand for travel is growing. It is estimated that on the second day of the New Year 1 1 or so, the expressway will start to be congested.

It is expected that the peak of high-speed congestion will appear on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, that is, the second half of the Spring Festival holiday, which is the same as the time of population migration. Compatriots returning home for the New Year set off for home on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, and high-speed travel gradually increased. The national high-speed congestion peak will appear on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year (65438+1October 30th) 16:00 or so.

In terms of high-speed traffic, it is expected that the national high-speed traffic will start to increase significantly on the second day of the Lunar New Year and continue until the sixth day of the Lunar New Year. It is expected that the national high-speed traffic will fall back to the normal level on the seventh day of the Lunar New Year.

Master's suggestion: you can travel when the traffic volume is at a low level, such as between 12 and 16 from the second day of the New Year to the sixth day of the New Year, and between 22: 00 and 4: 00 the next day, the traffic volume is the lowest.

Finally, the master once again stressed: long-distance driving or night driving, please pay attention to reasonable arrangements for rest time, do not drive tired, happy New Year and come back safely!

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.