What's the weather like during the Spring Festival in 2023?

Lead: The New Year has arrived. After New Year's Day, the Spring Festival is not far away. Recently, the relevant departments have released the holiday arrangements for 2023, including the Spring Festival holiday for 7 days, and everyone can go home for the New Year.

Is the Spring Festival in 2023 cold?

After the spring of 2022, the air and sea state in the equatorial Middle East Pacific once again reached the standard for judging La Nina events. The latest forecast of Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences also shows that La Nina event will be maintained and developed in the next few months from 2022 to 2023, and will reach its peak in February of 65438+2022, and will return to normal in spring of 2023.

Under the climate background of La Ni? a event, considering the direct influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in middle and high latitudes, whether China will experience a cold winter is worthy of further study.

At present, many institutions at home and abroad have predicted the temperature in Eurasia this winter, and the main conclusions are relatively consistent. The United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts that the temperature in Eurasia is warmer in winter, and the main warmer center in China is located in the eastern region. European centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that the temperature in Eurasia is warmer in winter, and the main warmer center in China is located in the central region. The British Meteorological Office predicts that the temperature in Eurasia is warmer in winter, and the main warmer centers in China are located in Central China and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The National Climate Center of China predicts that the intensity of cold air affecting China this winter is generally weak. Except the eastern and western Inner Mongolia, the northeast, most of southern China, the southeastern part of southwest China and the central and eastern part of northwest China, the temperature in other parts of the country is close to normal or high.

The forecast opinion of climate trend in China this winter given by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences is that the winter monsoon affecting China this winter is weak as a whole. Except for northern Xinjiang, northern North China, most of Northeast China and southeast coastal areas, the temperature in other parts of the country is close to normal or high. At the same time, due to the seasonal fluctuation of atmospheric circulation, the possibility of severe cooling caused by staged strong cold air activities cannot be ruled out. In terms of precipitation, the precipitation in the north of Xinjiang and the north-central part of Northeast China is slightly higher than normal. The normal precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its south area is slightly less, which is not conducive to drought resistance in this area.

It is unscientific to judge whether it will be cold in winter in China from the perspective of La Nina incident. We should pay more attention to the seasonal changes of winter temperature in China. At the same time, "triple" La Nina refers to three consecutive winters affected by La Nina events. Not overlapping year after year does not mean that the climate impact will double.

The first "triple" La Nina incident in this century

La Nina

La Nina, transliterated from Spanish, means "little girl" or "saint". It was first used by climatologist George Philander to name the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the equator, the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean is unusually cold in a large range, also known as anti-El Ni? o (in Spanish, El Ni? o means "little boy" or "El Ni? o", which refers to a climatic phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean is abnormally warm). "Triple" La Ni? a event refers to the outbreak of La Ni? a event for three consecutive years, that is, since the equatorial Middle East Pacific turned cold rapidly in the spring of 2020, the La Ni? a event developed three times from the summer of 2020 to the spring of 20021year and from the autumn of 20021year to the early summer of 2022 and the autumn of 2022, so it is called "triple" La Ni? a event.

La Nina and El Nino, as the warm and cold stages of abnormal SST changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean, appear alternately every two or three years. Compared with El Ni? o, the duration of La Ni? a has its particularity, and it is easy to last for more than 1 year, forming a La Ni? a event of about two years, also known as the "secondary cooling" La Ni? a event. However, controlled by the physical laws of alternating La Nina and El Ni? o, La Nina events that have occurred for three consecutive years are relatively rare. From 1970, it only appeared in 1973 to 1976 and 1998 to 200 1 year. Therefore, the La Nina event that broke out in 2022 will be the first "triple" La Nina event in this century.

Global warming does not necessarily lead to winter.

La Ni?a

According to historical data, the winter temperature in central and eastern China is often low during La Nina. From the aspects of temperature and precipitation, it can be seen that in the winter when most La Nina events peak, the cold air activities affecting China are more frequent and stronger than normal, and the probability that the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China is lower than normal is greater; However, the influence of La Nina event in tropical and subtropical areas will lead to obvious deviation of water vapor conditions in South China compared with the same period of normal years, which is not conducive to the formation of precipitation. At the same time, the northerly airflow prevails in the northern part of China in spring, while the warm and humid airflow in the southeast is relatively weak. Strong cold waves and strong winds in the north are prone to occur frequently, and dust may occur frequently, while rainfall in the south continues to be less. For our country, the long-term drought and lack of rain in the south of the Yangtze River may continue this year, and it will last until next spring, with far-reaching influence.

Before the mid-1980 s, La Nina event had a high probability of causing cold winter in Eurasia. However, in the context of global warming, the situation has changed: the same La Ni? a event, the frequency of warm winters is increasing. In La Nina events since 1986, the proportion of cold and warm in winter is basically half. Scientifically speaking, La Nina event is just one of the forcing factors that affect the winter climate in China. The winter climate in China is also influenced by forcing factors such as Arctic sea ice, and internal variability of atmospheric circulation such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and Ural Blockage.