Why did the pig price "rise every festival" fail? Will the Spring Festival rise on New Year's Day? Here comes the answer.

The price of live pigs has changed a lot this year. At the beginning of the year, the pig price reached a new high, and it began to drop rapidly after the year, flying down to thousands of feet, bottoming out many times, and once fell to the "5 prefix". It was not until 10 that it rebounded with the increase of market consumption.

According to the law of previous years, the price of pigs "will rise every festival", because festivals are often consumption days, and rising consumption is naturally beneficial to the price of pigs, but this year is an exception.

First, why "every festival will fall" this year?

This year's pig price perfectly explains that "every festival will fall", and it has been falling all the way since the Spring Festival, which is the kind that several cows can't pull back. Farmers are looking forward to bringing the pig price back to the holiday, but from the Qingming small holiday to the May Day holiday, to the Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival and even the National Day, the pig price has not stopped falling.

Why did the pig price "rise every festival" fail?

In fact, this is not a "strange circle", and the reason is still inseparable from the relationship between supply and demand.

On the one hand, the production capacity of live pigs is high, and the epidemic situation has led to a decline in the income of many families, and the consumption power has naturally declined. The market can't consume such a huge capacity, and the price naturally falls; On the other hand, the rate of decline of meat price is much slower than that of pig price. In the first half of the year, the price of pigs dropped sharply, but the price of meat was still at a high level, which restrained consumption to some extent. It was not until 10 that the price of pork fell to single digits, which stimulated the purchasing desire of the consumer army.

2. Will the Spring Festival on New Year's Day go up or not?

Next, the two most important festivals of the year, New Year's Day and Spring Festival, are coming soon. Especially the Spring Festival is an important traditional festival in China, with a long holiday and a tradition of going home for the New Year. Every year before the Spring Festival, every household will buy new year's goods. Will the price of pigs go up with such good consumption?

Let's look at it separately.

Let's talk about New Year's Day first. Judging from the current trend, it is unlikely that the pig price will rise on New Year's Day. As I said before, this round of pig price rebound is likely to be a flash in the pan. Sure enough, this epiphyllum only appeared for three days and now it has become a downward model.

First, the current round of rise is due to the cold wave, which has cooled down in most parts of the country, especially the first snow in the south, which has blocked the transportation of pigs and made the supply more difficult; Second, after the pig price fell below the cost line, the price sentiment of farmers was strong; Third, some consumption was stimulated before New Year's Day. Therefore, it is also doomed that the support for this round of rise is very limited. After the traffic resumed, the weather turned warmer and the market supply increased. On the other hand, New Year's Day is approaching the Spring Festival, and most people will choose the Spring Festival to go home. Therefore, there are not many people going home on New Year's Day, and the purchasing power of families is not strong, and the support for pig prices is limited.

Will the Spring Festival go up? Our judgment is that the probability of a big rise is small and the probability of a shock is large.

Because the Spring Festival will be supported by consumption, but the same amount of slaughter will also increase, because everyone knows that the year after the year is the off-season, in order to avoid the off-season, they will choose to slaughter before the year, so consumption and slaughter are likely to hedge.

3. What was the price of live pigs years ago?

For the trend of pig price years ago, we still continue our previous judgment: when the pig price falls below the 8 yuan cost line, there will be strong support.

The 8 yuan cost line we are talking about here is the national average price, which means that some places may be higher than this price, and some places may be lower than this price. From the current point of view, the price trend in Central China, South China and East China is strong, and the northern region is generally weak. If you have to say an interval, the pig price fluctuated around 14~ 17 yuan/kg about years ago.

It is not easy to raise pigs this year. Since last year's Spring Festival, we have been doing this year's Spring Festival, but we may not be able to wait for a good market. But this is how the market changes, and we can only calm down. In this year's policy, stability is mentioned again. Farmers may wish to refer to this principle, but don't pursue profits and sell them in batches to minimize risks.