Warning! Pig prices deteriorated, wheat fell sharply, soybean meal rebounded and fertilizer prices soared. What happened?

On the second day of February, the dragon looked up Domestic agricultural products market, the recent grain market is generally weak. In particular, the risk of selling tide corn has increased sharply, and the spot corn market has been declining.

However, the wheat market has also deviated, and the market has fallen miserably. Some milling enterprises fell to 1.57 yuan/kg and below.

However, in the pig market, the price of pigs has been blocked and the market has been deteriorating. However, personally, the reduction in pig prices may be limited. After all, the support at the bottom of the market has been gradually strengthened.

In the soybean meal market, the price of soybean meal fluctuated at the bottom. Due to the delay in the import of soybeans to Hong Kong in March, there was a certain bullish sentiment in the market.

In the fertilizer market, on the second day of February, the dragon looked up. After the rain and solar terms, the process of spring ploughing continued to accelerate and the price of fertilizer soared. So, what happened in the market? The key analysis is coming!

First, the price of pigs has deteriorated, and the market has fluctuated greatly!

On February 2 1 day, the national average price of live pigs 15.49 yuan/kg, the price of pigs stopped rising, and the average price fell by 0.05 yuan/kg in a narrow range! At present, the average price of live pigs in China fluctuates weakly, and the center of gravity moves down slowly. In the domestic market, the downward trend of pig prices has increased, covering northeast, north, northwest, east and central China. The price of mainstream slaughter enterprises was lowered by 0. 1~0.4 yuan/kg, and the rising areas retreated to the first line in South China, with the price increase rate of only 0. 1~0.2 yuan/kg!

Domestic pig prices deteriorated, and the performance of soaring market came to an abrupt end. The fluctuation of pig price is weak, and the deadlock of market supply and marketing is outstanding! Judging from the market feedback, at present, the fundamental reason for the downward trend of pig prices is that, on the one hand, due to the recent upward shift of the center of gravity of pig prices, the slaughter prices of many farmers in the north and south have risen to more than 8 yuan/kg, and the cost of collecting pigs in slaughterhouses has increased. However, the consumer market is in the off-season of the whole year, the demand for replenishment in the downstream is poor, the shipment of white pigs is not smooth, and the market has a high resistance to high-priced white pigs. Therefore, it is difficult for the transaction price of IOUs to keep up with the increase, and the slaughterhouse is under great pressure.

However, due to the rising cost of pigs entering the market, the enthusiasm of enterprises for warehousing has become worse. Therefore, the mood of reducing pigs is heating up, and the mood of reducing prices is stronger!

On the other hand, the slaughter of group pig enterprises increased slightly, and the market acceptance of high-priced pigs deteriorated. It is more difficult for large pig enterprises to slaughter, and the performance of secondary fattening and interception is weakened. It is not difficult to collect pigs in slaughterhouses. Many slaughterhouses have reduced pig prices and stopped planning ahead of schedule. Therefore, the behavior below the pig price is the main one!

However, due to the flexibility of staged retail pig farms, the mood of price reduction is not high, the supply of live pigs in the market is limited, the price reduction in slaughterhouses is weak, and the domestic pig prices are mainly adjusted weakly! In the short term, due to poor demand follow-up, the market sentiment of bargain-hunting has weakened, and the pig price will still be dominated by weak adjustment. However, due to the persistent sentiment of raising prices at the breeding end, the recovery at the consumer end is slow, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall sharply. The market is dominated by bottom shock adjustment!

Second, the price of wheat has fallen miserably!

After the Lantern Festival, the domestic spot wheat price dropped continuously, and the listing price of milling enterprises was about 1.59 ~ 1.64 yuan/kg. At present, the prices of mainstream milling enterprises have dropped to 1.565 ~ 1.6 yuan/kg, and the prices of most factories are hovering around 1.585 ~ 65438+. Wheat prices have fallen sharply, and the market has fallen sharply!

On the one hand, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level is still 1 ~ 20%, higher than last year. However, due to the flexibility of farmers selling grain, the impact on wheat prices is weak.

Traders' inventory is loose, but the storage cost is high. At present, the profit from selling grain is extremely low. However, pressing grain is bound to further increase costs, overlap, lack of obvious benefits in the market outlook, tangled channels, and some traders leave in tears!

On the other hand, policy wheat is continuously put on the market, temporary storage wheat and minimum purchase price wheat are continuously put on the market, which has obvious guiding effect on market sentiment. Due to the superposition of imported wheat factors, the surplus grain in the domestic wheat market is relatively loose!

On the demand side, because the price difference between wheat and corn is still close to 200 yuan/ton, and wheat lacks the basis of centralized feeding, milling enterprises are still the mainstream of wheat consumption. Previously, the market had high expectations for students to return to school and start business. However, from the market feedback, the flour in the terminal market is not performing well, and the demand lacks obvious boosting performance.

In particular, the aging of the population has accelerated and the consumption of flour has not increased effectively.

Therefore, under the background of strong supply and weak demand, the price of wheat still tends to continue to grind to the bottom. At present, the growth of new wheat is limited, the wheat planting area will increase, and the yield will not change much. Therefore, personally, in the short term, the wheat market will gradually sideways around 1.57~ 1.58 yuan/kg!

Third, the soybean meal market is higher!

Recently, the domestic soybean meal market price has shown a weak fluctuation trend. Due to the flat performance of the demand side, the inventory of the supply-side oil plant increased, and the market was bearish. At present, the price of 43% protein soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil plants generally falls below 4500 yuan/ton. However, according to market feedback, on February 20th, the prices of domestic mainstream oil plants were stable and strong, and the prices of oil plants rose by 65,438+.

According to industry analysis, according to the agency's forecast, domestic soybean imports will be around 6.7-7 million tons in February, while the scale of imported soybeans will remain around 6.5 million tons in March, and the focus of domestic soybean imports will also shift to Brazil, and the scale of imported soybeans may be reduced in March!

Recently, the domestic pig and egg poultry market is weak, feed enterprises are not enthusiastic about picking up goods, and the backlog pressure of some oil plants is increasing. Affected by soybean import cycle and enterprise soybean meal inventory, the operating rate of sample oil plants is facing downward pressure. This week, the operating rate of the sample oil plant will drop to 48%, and the soybean crushing scale will drop to about 654.38+0.676 million tons!

Personally, although the current soybean meal price fluctuates strongly, the fundamentals of strong market supply and weak demand will continue in the short term, and the spot soybean meal price will continue to fluctuate weakly. In March, some oil plants stopped production, and the supply of soybean meal may decrease. However, due to the difficulty in fully releasing the inventory pressure of oil plants, the price will still be "easy to fall but difficult to rise"!

Fourth, the price of fertilizer has soared!

Spring ploughing is just around the corner. Recently, domestic fertilizer prices have stopped falling, and the market has skyrocketed! In the urea market, domestic mainstream urea enterprises continued to raise prices 10 ~ 30 yuan/ton this week. The mainstream price of spot urea is about 2700 ~ 2800 yuan/ton, and the price of small and medium-sized urea in Shandong is 2720 ~ 2750 yuan/ton, up 10 ~ 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream urea enterprises in Henan, Hebei and Anhui raised their prices 10 yuan/ton, of which the price of small and medium-sized particles in Anhui was 2730 ~ 2800 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Henan was 2700 ~ 2720 yuan/ton!

Phosphate fertilizer market, after the Lantern Festival, the price of phosphate fertilizer is generally weak. Due to the drop in the upstream raw material price, the sulfur price dropped from 1325 yuan/ton around the Spring Festival to 1 125 yuan/ton, and then the price gradually increased. At present, it is maintained at around 1290 yuan/ton, and the price is gradually stabilizing! Since the Spring Festival, the market price of monoammonium has dropped to 3250~3350 yuan/ton due to the downward trend of raw material prices, which is about 150 yuan/ton!

However, with the approach of spring ploughing in Northeast China, the market demand for stocking is gradually heating up. Recently, the prices of urea and phosphate fertilizer have also tended to be strong. In the short term, the price will still fluctuate upward, and the market will also enter the stage of booming purchase and sale. However, due to the relatively sufficient market supply and the official measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply, I personally think that the space for further increase in fertilizer prices may be limited!

Warning! Pig prices deteriorated, wheat fell sharply, soybean meal rebounded and fertilizer prices soared. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!