Time window theory

Gann's window of time: Gann believes that the movement of the market, like everything in nature, has a special time period. In this magical time position, the market can easily change from the accumulation of quantitative changes to the outbreak of qualitative changes. It is reflected in the magical sequence represented by Fibonacci Fibonacci sequence, that is, in 1, 1, 2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55. . . . . That is to say, when the market trend runs to the above days, weeks and months, the market will easily change. This is Gann's time window theory. It is most often reflected in the stock market as the numbers 5, 8, 13, 2 1, 34 and 55. Of course, these figures do not have objective and definite significance, and they all have some floating drift in actual combat.

Gann's eighth trading rule theory is the time factor, which is considered to be the most important factor among all the factors that determine the market trend. Gann believes that time is the most important factor for two reasons:

First, time can go beyond the price balance;

Second, the transaction volume will increase at that time, pushing the price up and down.

The first point above is the proper term of Gann's theory. The so-called "market beyond equilibrium" refers to:

When the market is in an upward trend, its adjustment time is longer than the previous adjustment time, indicating that this market decline is a turning point. In addition, if the price drop is greater than the previous high-speed price, it means that the market has entered a turning point.

When the market is in a downward trend, if the rebound time of the market exceeds the previous rebound time for the first time, it means that the market situation has reversed. Similarly, if the price range of the market rebound exceeds the price range of the previous rebound, it also means that the price or space has exceeded the balance and the trend has emerged.

Figure 12 The time and price of the market are unbalanced, indicating that the market is turning down.

When the market is about to reach the turning point, the market trend is usually traceable. When there are three or four waves of ups and downs in the market, the price and time of the last wave of ups and downs are usually shorter than those of the previous wave, which indicates that the time period of the market is coming to an end and the trend is changing at any time.

The imbalance between time and price in the market indicates that the market has bottomed out.

Gann also believes that financial markets are affected by seasonal special rings. Therefore, as long as we pay attention to some important time points and cooperate with other trading rules, investors can quickly detect changes in market trends.

Gann specially listed the important turning points in each month of the year, which is of great reference value. Details are as follows:

(1) 65438+1October 7 to 10 and 65438+1October 19 to 24-

These days are the most important days at the beginning of the year, and the trend can last for weeks or even months.

(2) February 3rd to 10 and February 20th to 25th-

The above date is second only to January in importance.

20-27 March

Short-term turnaround often occurs, sometimes even the main top or bottom.

(4) April 7th to 12 and April 20th to 25th-

The above dates are not as important as 1 and February, but the latter often leads to a market turn.

(5) May 3rd to 10 and May 2nd to128-

May is a very important turning month, and at the same time, February is equally important.

(6) June 10 to June 15 and June 2/kloc-0 to June 27-

There will be a short-term turnaround this month.

(7) July 7th to 10 and July 2nd to127-

July is second only to June 5438+ 10. During this period, the climate change in the middle of the year affected the grain harvest, and most listed companies paid dividends once every six months during this period, which affected market activities and capital flow.

(8) August 5-8 and August 14-20-

The possibility of a turnaround in August is the same as that in February.

(9) From September 3rd to 10 and from September 20th to 28th-

September is the most important time of the year when the market turns.

(10) 10 7 to 14 bright 10 2 1 to 30-

65438+ 10 is also a very important time for the market to turn around.

(11)165438+10 from October 5th to165438+/kloc-0 from October 20th to 30th-

In election years in the United States, the market often turns around at the beginning of 1 1, while in other years, the market often turns around at the end of 1 1.

(12) 65438+February 3rd to 10 and 65438+February 16 to 24-

Around Christmas, the market often turns around.

On the days listed above, there are two * * * issues every month. If you look carefully, you can understand the market turning point time proposed by Gann, compared with the 24 solar terms in the China calendar. From an astronomical point of view, but with the earth as the center, the time interval for the sun to walk is 15 degrees. Therefore, Gann's understanding of the market cycle is closely related to climate change.

According to Gann's theory, it is extremely important to grasp the time of market turning point. In addition to paying attention to the multiple turning points that may occur in a year, we should also pay attention to the number of days when a market trend runs.

Based on the understanding of "numerology", Gann believes that the market trend runs according to the stages of numbers. When the market trend runs to a certain stage, the market may turn around.

Starting from the important bottom or top of the market, the following are the days when Gann thinks there is a chance to reverse:

(1)7 to 12 days (2) 18 to 2 1 day (3)28 to 3 1 day.

(4)42 to 49 days (5)57 to 65 days (6)85 to 92 days

(7) 1 12 to 120 days (8) 150 to 157 days (9) 175 to 185 days.

In the foreign exchange market, the most important periods are the following three periods:

(1) Short-term trend-42 to 49 days;

(2) Medium-term and short-term trends-85 to 92 days;

(3) Medium and long-term trend-175 to 185 days.

Taking the trend of the US dollar mark and the Swiss franc as an example, here are some quotations:

(1) Mid-term trend-USD/CHF rose from 10/99210.05 on October 5th to 1993 15 * * for 94 days.

(2) Short-term trend-USD/CHF dropped from 1.55 on March 5th, 993 to May 7th, ***44 days.

(3) Long-term trend-the difference between the two bottoms * *1991.65438+February 27th to 65438+September 2nd 0992.

The attraction of Gann's theoretical analysis is that Gann's prediction of the important top or bottom of the market is very accurate.

For predicting the top and bottom times, Gann certainly made great efforts in chart analysis. He introduced three important methods in his works, which are worthy of investors' reference.

First of all, Gann believes that by counting the trend of the market for decades and studying the months when the important top and bottom of the market appear, investors can know which month the top and bottom of the market often appear. In particular, he pointed out that it is easy to grasp the time at the top and bottom of the market by comparing the running time of the trend with the statistical month.

Second, Gann believes that we must pay close attention to the anniversaries of important top and bottom markets. In his research, the market reversed, usually in the months of historical highs and lows. The significance of anniversary is that one year, two years or even ten years after the market passes an important top or bottom is an important time period, which deserves investors' attention.

Third, on the day of important news, some market news came into play, and the market fluctuated greatly. For example: war, financial crisis, devaluation, etc. We should pay special attention to the anniversaries of these dates. In addition, analysts should pay special attention to the price level when news enters the market, which is often an important support or resistance level of the market.