Soaring up! Corn has ushered in a key "watershed"! What happened?

Introduction to 165438+ 10 month. With the approach of the solar term in beginning of winter, the weather in the northern region turns cold. At present, most of the new corn in China, including North China and Huanghuai, is returned to the warehouse by granules, and the corn harvest in Northeast China has also entered the final stage. At this stage, domestic new corn should have entered the stage of centralized production, but the market performance is relatively deserted. However, with the long and short game in the market, the specific analysis is coming!

Northeast market:

In Northeast China, the harvest of new corn has basically ended, but the problem of masks in many places has limited the level of purchasing and selling at the grassroots level. Because many traders suffered losses in hoarding corn in different degrees last year, at this stage, traders are in a high wait-and-see mood, drying towers and deep processing enterprises are generally enthusiastic about replenishing goods, and grain depots and grain depots around the country are also purchased in small quantities. The purchase and sale of corn is relatively deserted, and some tidal grains are supplied to feed enterprises. Traders and deep processing enterprises lack the enthusiasm to open positions!

However, due to the expansion of soybean planting in Northeast China this year, the corn planting area has been reduced and superimposed. Since this year, the prices of international bulk agricultural products have been higher, the level of domestic agricultural materials and fertilizers has continued to rise, and the planting cost has increased, which has also aggravated the reluctance and bullish sentiment of grassroots farmers, and the market price is quite high! Corn prices in Northeast China are mainly sideways, and some factories are affected by corn stocks and high-volume emotions, and the price adjustment range is narrow!

In the short term, in Northeast China, the price of new corn tide grain will remain at around 1~ 1.05 yuan/kg, while the listed price of dry grain is around 1.3~ 1.4 yuan/kg! The market is relatively cautious in buying and selling, and the price may be sideways!

Shandong market:

In Shandong market, the harvest of autumn corn has already ended, and the sowing of winter wheat has also come to an end. At present, the market is relatively cautious, and the phenomenon of warehouses such as traders and deep processing enterprises is more prominent! However, since the autumn harvest this year, grass-roots corn has not performed well, and growers are reluctant to sell it. As the weather turns cold, corn moisture is constantly losing, farmers are more reluctant to sell, and it is difficult for traders to collect grain at low prices. The market is about to usher in a critical watershed, and multiple acquirers will open their positions one after another!

According to institutional analysis, at present, the problem of masks in Shandong and North China is more serious, and many places have entered a silent cycle. The difficulty of regional logistics transportation has increased sharply. The rhythm of grain sales by grassroots farmers is stagnant, and the number of deep processing enterprises continues to decrease. Due to the uncertainty of mask problem, corn stocks of deep processing enterprises continue to be consumed. In order to maintain normal construction, enterprises have a certain mood of raising prices and opening positions!

At present, in Shandong, the quotation of mainstream deep-processed corn is maintained at 1.4 ~ 1.5 yuan/kg, while in the northeast market, the listing price of dry corn is 1.3 ~ 1.4 yuan/kg. Due to the sharp rise in gasoline and diesel prices, it is difficult to transfer grain sources in Northeast China, so it is more cost-effective for deep processing enterprises to buy and sell corn locally. But local enterprises are more cost-effective.

The quotation of deep processing enterprises shows that at present, the grain delivered by Shandong deep processing enterprises is only 146 wagons, among which the number of many enterprises continues to decrease, and the quotation of mainstream deep processing enterprises in Shandong has rebounded, among which Changle Shengtai, Shouguang Golden Corn, Changle Xuan Ying, Shandong Tian Li, Zouping Wang Xi, Boxing Xiangchi, Binzhou Jin Hui and Pingyuan Fuyang have reached 65,438+. The quotations of some enterprises rose to 1.5 1~ 1.53 yuan/kg!

It can be seen that with the passage of time, domestic multi-party buyers will enter the stage of centralized warehouse opening in June 5438+065438+ 10. Due to the distribution of masks at the grassroots level, the rhythm of farmers' grain sales has been blocked, the logistics volume at the grassroots level has decreased, and the logistics difficulty in many places has increased sharply. Deep processing enterprises have a certain inventory "gap", and the enthusiasm of enterprises to raise prices will rebound!

In the short term, due to the shortage of corn supply, the domestic spot corn price may fluctuate and strengthen. With grain storage, feed mills and traders entering the stage of centralized warehouse opening, Russia suspended the transportation of Ukrainian grain in Black Harbor due to the rising international food prices and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which further aggravated the bullish sentiment in the domestic market. Under the multi-party game, it is expected that the domestic corn price may continue to be bullish!

Soaring up! Corn has ushered in a key "watershed"! What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!