Do you think Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo are sure to win the gold medal in Vancouver Winter Olympics during the Spring Festival? Comment on it.

At present, the double skiing/Zhao Hongbo is in a stable state. If the performance on the spot is normal, the key is two and a half weeks of continuous jump and three weeks of single jump, and the probability of winning gold is close to 70%. Germany's Savishenko/Sauerkovi are very strong, but their stability is slightly poor (short programs are their strengths, free skating is often mediocre, and the continuous jump is unstable for two and a half weeks this season), and the probability of winning gold is 30%. Because it is a scoring project, the referee factor can not be ignored. Pang Qing/Tong Jian (the key is to squeeze the short program scores to the top 4-5, and the free skating can play the last group) has great hope of winning the medal if the technical movements are normal. Kawaguchi and smirnoff in Russia are backed by the powerful Russian Ice Association, so there is a great possibility of delisting.