Warning! The pig price is "stable and falling more", and the market sentiment is still weak. what do you think?

The air is warm in the spring breeze, and flowers are blooming everywhere.

Recently, there has been a wave of warming in most parts of China. Many cities in the north entered the "early summer" ahead of schedule, and the weather will continue to escalate in the next four days. The highest temperature in Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other places will exceed 30℃, which is extremely warm! Many places in the north may break the record of the same period, and some areas in the south of the Yangtze River may experience mango fever or even summer solstice solar terms in advance.

The weather is getting hotter and hotter, which once again restricts pork consumption and has a certain negative effect on the pig market.

However, in terms of feed, with the recent sharp drop in the domestic soybean meal market, some feed enterprises have successively reduced their prices, and some feed enterprises have experienced a drop of 50 ~ 200 yuan/ton, which has certain benefits for farmers, leading to the decline of this round of soybean meal market. On the one hand, soybean imports continued to increase from April to June, and the supply of soybean meal in the market gradually eased; On the other hand, after entering April, the auction of imported soybeans continued to increase. In April 1 day, 500,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned, with a turnover of only 49.5%, and the average transaction price also decreased. On April 7, 500,000 tons of imported soybean meal was auctioned, and the market was more bearish. However, at present, the feed cost pressure at the breeding end is still relatively high, which only slightly relieves the pressure on farmers.

From the point of view of pig supply, according to the birth situation and seasonal law of piglets in the early stage, it is expected that the pig slaughter in the second quarter will decrease compared with that in the first quarter, but as the fertile sows pushed before 10 are at a high level, it is expected that the overall slaughter will remain at a high level.

From the demand point of view, the second quarter is the traditional off-season, and the epidemic situation in many places in China is severe recently. It is expected that its negative impact on consumption will continue into the second quarter.

Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase at low prices, and the demand for high-priced procurement is slightly weakened, which is obviously affected by the epidemic. The procurement and transportation of pigs in slaughter enterprises are obviously constrained, and it is more difficult to sell white pigs after the holiday. In some areas, local sales performance is relatively strong, and market sentiment is more obvious. The decline in pig prices of group enterprises was mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and Heilongjiang, and the sales volume of pigs in leading group pig farms was adjusted.

Therefore, under the background that the overall supply of live pigs is still high and the demand is weak, it is expected that the price of live pigs will remain under pressure in the second quarter.

However, at present, the price is already at an "absolute low level", the profit loss of the industry is serious, and the national frozen pork is frequently purchased and stored. No matter from the point of view of farmers' price protection or slaughtering enterprises' reserve of frozen products on dips, the resistance to the continued downward price is also increasing, and the pig market does not have the fundamentals of a sharp decline.

According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0 and fell by 9 to 17, and the stable areas accounted for 66% of all the monitoring. The pig market as a whole is in a situation of "stable and falling more".

The price of white pigs in the wholesale market shows an adjustment trend. Some markets are affected by the epidemic, and the transaction uncertainty is obvious. The enthusiasm of downstream traders for receiving goods is weak, and the ex-factory price of white pigs in Northeast China dropped by 200 yuan/ton.

According to industry analysts, in the short term, it has entered April, and there are still 20 days before the May Day holiday. There is basically no downward space for the price of live pigs, and there is no possibility of a sharp rise.

After all, the current off-season consumption has a great impact on the overall catering consumption, so that the support for the current pork consumption is limited, so the live pig market may maintain a "weak shock" in the short term.

Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a trend of "big stability and weak decline" on April 8 tomorrow.

The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics. I believe that after all kinds of hardships, you will be thoroughly remoulded.