Typhoon 202 1:202 1 What's the weather forecast for Zhejiang in flood season?

Spring is coming, summer may not be far away, and the weather is getting warmer, but there will be problems that coastal areas are affected by typhoons. This year is also predicted as a typhoon year, so there is more news about your recent trip.

How many typhoons are there?

Judging from the published trend, 202 1 may be a "typhoon year" with a large number. According to the data, it is estimated that the number of typhoons landing in China in 20021year is on the high side. The number of typhoons generated in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea is 27 to 29.

However, this data is more than normal (26). There are 8 to 10 typhoons landing in China, which is more than normal (7), so the data is on the high side. However, it should be pointed out that the overall intensity of typhoons is moderate and weak. It is expected that there will be more typhoons, but fewer typhoons with higher intensity. The general path is mainly in the northwest, and there may be a typhoon going northward that affects China, which has a greater impact on the eastern coast of China and the eastern coast of South China. Therefore, South China and East China need to pay attention to this year's typhoon activities.

Speaking of this year, we also see that last year's typhoon was a little different. Typhoons mostly appear in the second half of the year, and last year, under the climate change, there was another "typhoon-free" month, that is, July. This is a rare scene. As we all know, July is already the active period of typhoons, and no typhoon is completely unexpected. So it's really hard to explain whether there will be some special circumstances this year. The current climate can only be said to be more and more extreme, so it has become so unimaginable.

Turning over the typhoon track map of last year, we can find several obvious characteristics: First, there are few typhoons. There were only 23 typhoons in the whole year, and there was an unprecedented typhoon in July. Secondly, the generating point moved westward, and many typhoons gathered around China. Most of these 23 typhoons have entered the 48-hour warning line in China. The third is characteristic mutation. Before late autumn, typhoons mostly went north; After the late autumn, the typhoon moved further westward.

In addition, what can't be seen on the road map is that last year's typhoon was generally weak, but the super typhoon Goni was extremely strong and stood out; Landing in China is generally weak, but there are also three typhoons or strong typhoons. The general weakness, short path and proximity to China are typical features of typhoon La Nina, but La Nina has another feature. There are many typhoons, which didn't appear last year. Of course, this has something to do with the development of La Nina in the second half of the year. This is the problem. 202 1, under the background of La Nina, will the typhoon retaliate more?

At present, meteorological bureaus in many provinces have given this year's climate outlook. For example, according to the forecast of Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, the weather and climate in Shenzhen in 20021year will be characterized by "extreme weather, strong convection, dragon boat water and heavy rain concentration, and typhoon influence in the early stage". Typhoon has an early influence and is easily affected by strong typhoon. There may be strong winds of 9- 1 1 in coastal areas and highlands, and the local wind force is above 12, which may be superimposed with astronomical tides. Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau and Guangzhou Sanfang General Command Office, both in Guangdong, previously revealed that in 20021year, there were roughly 3-5 typhoons that seriously affected Guangzhou.

On April 20 10-20 10 4 15, the products for forecasting climate trends in flood season were released for the first time. It is reported that there will be 8 ~ 10 tropical cyclones affecting Hainan in the flood season of 202 1 0 (May ~10).

According to Wu Hui, deputy director of Hainan Climate Center, it is estimated that there will be 8- 10 tropical cyclones (including tropical depression, tropical storm, strong tropical storm, typhoon and tropical cyclones with typhoon intensity above) affecting Hainan Island in the 20021flood season (May-June), among which 5-7 will be affected. Moreover, the intensity of tropical cyclones landing in Hainan Province is generally close to normal, but there may be some strong typhoons during this period. Tropical cyclone disasters are generally slightly heavier than normal.

It is predicted that there will be many tropical cyclones affecting Hainan in the flood season of 20021,and the first tropical cyclone affecting Hainan Island will appear in mid-June, earlier than normal 10 day (

It is predicted that tropical cyclones, rainstorms and floods will be heavier in 20021flood season than in 20 19 and 2020, while meteorological drought and high temperature disasters will be younger than in 20 19 and 2020. Climate conditions will be worse than 20 19 and 2020.

Wu Hui said that at present, the important ocean and atmospheric circulation systems that affect Hainan's climate are changing and adjusting, and there is still great uncertainty about the future evolution and influence of ocean and land landforms, which increases the difficulty and uncertainty of climate trend prediction in flood season this year. Because the factors affecting the climate in flood season are very complicated, Hainan Meteorological Bureau will continue to closely monitor the changes of the ocean and atmosphere and the abnormal changes of weather and climate, and make rolling revised forecasts in time.

On the same day, Hainan Meteorological Bureau joined 24 functional departments to carry out the 20021typhoon emergency drill.

According to the news from the meteorological department of Hainan Province, during the annual meeting of Boao Forum for Asia 2002 1 (April18-April 21), there were light showers in Boao area from June1August-June 19, and from 20th to 2nd June. Suitable temperature, the highest temperature is 28~30, and the lowest temperature is 23~24.

Climate forecast of Hainan 202 1 flood season.

According to the forecast of Zhejiang Climate Center, it is predicted that extreme weather and climate events in our province will be more frequent this year, with poor meteorological years and serious meteorological disasters.

rain

From April to September, the precipitation in the north-central and southeast coastal areas of northern Zhejiang is slightly more than normal, and the precipitation in other areas is slightly less or less; There is a little more precipitation in the rainy season in northern Zhejiang, and there will be a stage of concentrated precipitation, which is more likely to cause heavy rain, flood or waterlogging.

high-temperature

The average temperature in most parts of the province is on the high side, and there are obvious staged high-temperature heat waves in midsummer. The number of high temperature days is slightly more than normal, and the meteorological drought is moderate.

typhoon

There are 3~5 typhoons affecting our province, of which 1~2 have been seriously affected or landed;

Strong convection

Strong convective weather and local heavy precipitation are frequent, and the meteorological risk of flash floods and geological disasters caused by heavy rain and short-term heavy precipitation is high.