Will China's gdp growth rate and ASEAN's gdp growth rate affect China-ASEAN trade?

First of all, among the factors that affect the trade of agricultural products between China and ASEAN, the total GDP has the greatest influence. In the regression results, the estimated value of GDP elasticity is 1.02, which exceeds 1, indicating that the export growth ratio of agricultural products will be greater than GDP. However, per capita GDP has little influence on the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN. The research shows that if the scale of trade between the two countries depends more on their GDP, it shows that the trade structure of the country is still in the primary stage, and resources and labor-intensive commodities are still the main trade commodities of the two countries. Judging from the current export structure of agricultural products between China and ASEAN, the low technical content of export products and the small proportion of processed and deep-processed products really conform to this conclusion.

Second, the early harvest plan has a great impact on the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN, but the sign of the coefficient is not in line with expectations. The reason may be that ASEAN countries are traditional tropical fruit growers and have comparative advantages over China in climate and planting experience. At the same time, in the "early harvest" plan, China's agricultural products have a large tax reduction and there is no protection period. In order to protect the new ASEAN member countries with relatively backward economies, China has given these countries extended protection periods and special tariffs, which has had a certain impact on China's agricultural trade and may reduce China's agricultural trade in the short term.

Third, the distance factor has the least influence. For every increase of 1%, the trading volume only decreases by 0. 14%. It can be seen that after the establishment of the Free Trade Zone, the implementation of various trade liberalization measures has reduced transportation costs, reduced transaction costs, and weakened the negative impact of spatial distance on agricultural trade.