How does the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economics interpret the economic situation in the first half of the year?

How do you see the economic situation in the first half of the year? "The general judgment is that the economic situation in the first half of the year was stable and improving, and structural adjustment deepened." Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Leading Group for Finance and Economics, said at a conference organized by the State Council Information Office on the 27th. Why do you say the economy is stable and improving? How to do the economic work in the second half of the year? At the conference, heads of relevant departments answered reporters' questions.

Major indicators in the first half of the year are in a reasonable range

Yang Weimin said that the major indicators of economic operation in the first half of the year are in a reasonable range, or even better than expected, and that the economy is running relatively stable. GDP grew by 6.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2015; the quality and efficiency of economic development improved, with fiscal revenues growing by 9.8 percent, and profits from regulated industries increasing by 22 percent. People's lives continued to improve, with 7.35 million people newly employed in urban and rural areas, an increase of 180,000 people year-on-year. Disposable income per capita increased by 7.3 percent in real terms after deducting price factors, continuing to outpace economic growth.

Why is structural adjustment deepening? From the perspective of demand structure, consumption, investment and export have achieved a relatively balanced growth; From the perspective of industrial structure, the service industry has continued to maintain a relatively fast growth, the supply-side reform of agriculture has continued to promote, the industrial structure has been optimized, especially the excess capacity continues to be dissolved, the effect of innovation-driven began to appear, and the growth of the industry is adapted to the consumption and technological progress. from the regional structure, regional synergies are beginning to emerge, the eastern region is more consolidated in the positive trend, the central and western development space is expanding, the northeast signs of bottoming out.

There have been many positive changes in the economic field, with the employment situation continuing to improve as a highlight. According to Xing Zhihong, director of the National Bureau of Statistics Comprehensive National Economy Statistics Department, under the four effects of "double creativity", economic growth, structural adjustment and policy, employment has maintained a stable and improving development trend.

More rely on accelerating structural adjustment and kinetic energy conversion to promote development

China's economic half-yearly report, the results are bright. "Instead of engaging in strong stimulus like the Western countries, we have vigorously promoted 'double creation' and revitalized the real economy, relying more on accelerating structural adjustment and transformation of old and new kinetic energy to promote development and achieve stable economic growth." Cong Liang, director of the National Development and Reform Commission Comprehensive Department, said.

On the one hand, the industrial structure continues to be optimized, and the service industry continues to develop at a faster pace. From 2013-2016, the value added of the service sector grew at an average annual rate of 8%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate. The contribution of the service industry to economic growth was 44.9% in 2012, reaching 58.2% in 2016 and 59.1% in the first half of this year. The share of value added of the service sector was 46.7 percent in 2013 and increased to 54.1 percent in the first half of this year.

On the other hand, the second sector has improved its quality in a stable manner. With the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, including the "Made in China 2025" and "Internet Plus" initiatives and other construction in-depth, the pace of transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has accelerated, and new technologies, new industries, new business forms and new modes continue to emerge. The economy as a whole, especially the industrial economy, has been maintained at a high level. The entire economy, especially the industrial economy, has maintained steady growth.

Along with structural optimization, the demand structure has also changed, with consumption becoming the main force. At present, the contribution of consumption to economic growth, in the first half of the year, is 63.4%, and the role of consumption as the main force and the basic role has been effectively played. Investments in ecological and environmental protection, education, water conservancy, innovation and technological transformation have all seen double-digit growth. The entire economic structure, both industrial structure and demand structure, has undergone many positive changes with trend.

"Looking at the economic situation requires dialectical thinking and a long-term perspective. It is important to look at both the current and the long-term; to look at both indicators and expectations; and to see both achievements and problems at the same time." According to Yang Weimin, from the perspective of the medium and long term and expectations, the fundamentals of China's economic development are good, the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, the supply and demand relationship is undergoing substantial changes, and business expectations and market confidence are gradually improving.

Yang Weimin said, more importantly, the new development concept and supply-side reform are y rooted in people's hearts, especially the behavior of some local governments and enterprises is changing. This change in philosophy is a more profound change and a more powerful force that will lead China's economic development toward a higher form of transformation of development mode, optimization of economic structure and transformation of growth momentum. The future of China's economic development is bright, and will not fall into the so-called "middle-income trap".

We need to seize the moment while making a difference

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about "black swans" and "gray rhinos" in the market, and Wang Zhijun, director of the Economic and Financial Affairs Office of the Central Leading Group, explained. Wang Zhijun, director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economics, explained that "black swan" mainly refers to unforeseen emergencies or problems. "Gray rhinoceros" generally refers to problems or events that are very big and have been foretold, but are ignored and not given enough attention, resulting in serious consequences. Both types of events have the potential to impact the bottom line of financial risk. However, these are two different types of events of different nature, in response to and prevention of these two types of events should be different in the approach and thinking.

The "black swan" event, because it is not expected, so we must maintain a clear mind and a high degree of sensitivity, especially in the current economic operation is not yet a solid foundation, we must enhance the sense of worry and risk awareness. To strengthen the tracking and monitoring analysis, strengthen the early warning prediction, timely detection of some economic operation of the trend of the incipient problems, save for a rainy day, make a good plan, prevention is better than cure, do not fight unprepared for the battle.

The "gray rhinoceros" event, because the problem already exists, there are signs, so we must increase the sense of crisis, to adhere to the problem-oriented. The existence of "gray rhinoceros" risk potential, such as shadow banking, real estate bubble, high leverage of state-owned enterprises, local debt, illegal fund-raising and other issues, we need to understand the situation, differentiate between the degree of urgency and impact, focus on the key points, and take effective measures to properly address.

To do a good job of economic work in the second half of the year, the main thing is to adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability. According to Yang Weimin, stability is the main keynote, to seek progress under the premise of maintaining the overall stability. But seeking progress while maintaining stability is not to do nothing, not strong stability, mechanical stability, but to grasp the degree of the premise of doing something, to do something. In doing something at the same time to grasp the balance, grasp the timing, grasp the degree, not only to prevent blind leaps, dry and fast, but also to prevent fearful, inaction, not only to prevent "too much", but also to avoid "not as good as". Seeking progress while maintaining stability is the tone set by last year's central economic work conference, and this year we need to make progress in the two areas of supply-side reform and preventing and resolving financial risks to achieve new results.

The country is moving forward steadily, what else do we have to worry about.