The latest data: Wuling, BYD and Tesla become the top three new energy vehicles?

On the first day of the National Day holiday, "outsiders" sounded the horn of price reduction again. What is the model? 3. The terminal price is lowered to less than 250,000 yuan. For a time, there were many critics, and the voice of "cutting leeks" was endless. Some insiders bluntly said that the real wolf is coming, not only the new forces of building cars are under pressure, but also the traditional joint venture B-class cars will face unprecedented challenges.

In this regard, the market reaction takes time to accumulate, but judging from the September sales data released by the Federation yesterday, we don't seem to feel the smell of "wolf coming" at all, because from the data, the domestic auto market seems to be "hello, I am good, everyone is good", both new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles are on the rise. ?

In particular, new energy vehicles doubled in September compared with the same period of last year, taking another big step on the basis of an increase of nearly 50% in the previous month.

Has the second spring of new energy come?

According to the data of the Federation, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger cars exceeded1250,000 in September, up 99.6% year-on-year (up 62.4 million vehicles) and up 24 1% from August. Among them, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger cars was 22,000, up 55% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales volume of pure electric passenger cars reached102,000, up 105% year-on-year!

Moreover, pure electric passenger cars showed two strong growth trends in September, among which A00 sold 32,500 vehicles (Wuling Hong Guang MINI? EV accounts for nearly half), and its share has increased to 32% of pure electric passenger cars.

At the same time, the new energy vehicle market really blossomed in September, with 24,386 SGMW, BYD 19048 and Tesla China 1 1329, ranking among the top three new energy sources. New car-making forces such as Weilai, Tucki, Weimar, He Zhong and Zero Run have also performed well, even born out of traditional car companies such as Guangzhou Automobile New Energy.

It seems that the second spring of the new energy vehicle market is about to break out.

Looking at the performance of the entire passenger car market in the same period is also based on the wholesale volume. In September, the total sales volume of manufacturers was 206 1 10,000 vehicles, up 8.5% year-on-year and 18.7% quarter-on-quarter. In other words, in September, more passenger cars were sold than in the same period last year 16 10000. Excluding the increase of 62,400 new energy vehicles, the number of fuel vehicles increased by 98,600, a year-on-year increase of about 5.4%. ?

Compared with the year-on-year doubling and 5.4%, it is obvious that the new energy market is recovering rapidly.

Will Tesla take the cake from the gas truck?

Next, let's turn our attention back to Tesla.

Models? The latest round of price reduction took place this month, so it is too early to talk about whether it will affect peers or traditional B-class car manufacturers. However, judging from the overall trend of the auto market, Tesla does have the possibility of further exploring the price in the future, which may trigger the price reduction valve of traditional B-class cars, but it is also alarmist to say that it will erode its sales.

There is a simple reason. When the price of fuel vehicles is forced to be lowered, consumers' choices will still move forward. It is conceivable that being a model? When the price of 3 really comes to about 200,000 yuan, it will inevitably push the price of domestic mainstream joint venture B-class cars to the international level (about 20,000 US dollars), which is obviously what consumers are happy to see.

So in terms of price, Tesla does play the role of catfish, but it is limited to this, because the life of traditional fuel vehicles will be longer than expected.

Not long ago, the second Global New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference sent a clear signal to the outside world, that is, the three-step plan proposed by the industry (electric vehicle sales accounted for 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030 and 60% in 2035) will usher in a relatively big adjustment. According to the Technical Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles (Version 2.0), the overall goal is that 50% of energy-saving vehicles and 50% of new energy vehicles will be used in 2035. The "energy-saving vehicle" mentioned here is actually a new name for traditional fuel vehicles after hybrid technology is added.

The domestic momentum of traditional hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) has been growing rapidly in the past two years-the growth rate last year exceeded 33%, and this year is the most dazzling and stable market segment in the passenger car field. The year-on-year trend of the first three quarters is as follows:

▲ The year-on-year trend of domestic passenger cars and HEV hybrid vehicles from June 5438 to September. Source: Passenger Association.

It can be seen that except for February and March, which were most affected by the epidemic, the whole oil-electricity mixed market maintained a double-digit year-on-year growth rate, and the growth rate in two months even reached more than 50%. From the perspective of policy orientation and market trends, neither Tesla nor new car-making forces such as Weilai, Tucki and Weimar, nor even BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling, which have made outstanding achievements in the field of new energy in recent months, can shake the position of traditional fuel vehicles.

Let's talk about it finally.

Whether it is Tesla or any other car company, consumers will definitely welcome the price reduction. After all, who doesn't want to buy their favorite goods at a lower cost without lowering the quality and configuration? What's more, this time Model 3, the configuration is optimized and the performance is improved.

At the same time, in the expected medium and long term, we seem to be expecting Tesla's next round of price reduction. As mentioned above, when it really threatens the survival of traditional joint venture brands, we can usher in the day when the price of domestic cars is in line with international standards.

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