Impact of three years of the epidemic on international trade

Looking at the overall picture, the global health, economic and social crisis brought about by the new Crown pneumonia outbreak will affect global trade in a number of ways, some of which are clearly negative, and some of which may be very negative, and of course there are others. This can be seen if we look at the main factors affecting global trade, be it the global economy, technology, geopolitics, or domestic policy responses. The global economy is in a severe recession, and China is a special case in this regard because it has significantly outperformed the world average, at least in 2020. But in the period ahead, Chinese exporters should expect foreign demand to shrink for some time, meaning the economy will need to rely more on domestic consumption than it has in the past, rather than being driven by exports.

One thing is very clear: while many countries are still unfortunately y plagued by the epidemic, the crisis will indeed greatly accelerate the digitization of economic, social, cultural and other systems. This will of course affect trade in different ways, such as 3D printing, and will obviously promote the return of businesses, especially to set up manufacturing not far from home.

On the other hand this will also accelerate the digitization of trade in services, such as financial services, healthcare, leisure and entertainment, and so on. Overall, the digitization of the economy will increase the total amount of global trade in the medium to long term, although some of these factors will lead to a decrease in international trade.

Additionally, the C.N.C.P. outbreak is bound to have geopolitical implications as well, and I fear they will be negative. The U.S.-China rivalry that existed before the outbreak has been exacerbated by the epidemic and will be with us for many years. Though the Biden administration will likely utilize trade less as a means of attack than the Trump administration, especially against China. As a result, it can be expected that competition between the U.S. and China will continue and will result in a degree of decoupling, especially in the tech sector. The crisis of the epidemic has not only caused tensions between East and West, but the North-South tensions will be exacerbated by the crisis, especially because of the asymmetrical impact of the epidemic on the North and South economies. The Northern economies clearly have the capacity to put in place huge recovery plans to facilitate economic recovery. These are financed either by fiscal borrowing or by central banks constantly printing money. Of course, many poorer countries will not be able to do this, and they will suffer even more, which is one effect of the current epidemic