What is the future development direction of China's construction industry?

The construction industry is mainly driven by macroeconomic growth and investment in fixed assets. Under the influence of domestic macro-control, the growth rate of construction industry has slowed down in the short term, but in the long run, with the acceleration of domestic urbanization and the gradual maturity of international contracting business, China's construction industry has broad prospects for development.

Recently, the profitability of the industry has declined. The construction industry is a fully competitive industry. Affected by macro-control, rising building materials prices, rising labor costs and other factors, the cost of the construction industry will rise in the short term, and its profitability will decline.

Pay attention to the subdivided railway construction industry. China's economic aggregate is huge, and the development of various industries is uneven.

Although the state implements economic regulation and control from the macro aggregate level, it will increase policy support for those bottleneck industries whose overall development lags behind the national economic development level. At present, the shortage of railway transportation and railway infrastructure in China has become the main obstacle to economic development, and increasing railway infrastructure construction is the key content of the national "Eleventh Five-Year Plan".

Main risk factors of the industry. Rising raw material prices, slowing economic growth, inflation, the international financial crisis, the state's regulation of real estate and the appreciation of RMB will all have a negative impact on the company's profit growth.

(1) Macroeconomy and investment in fixed assets are the primary driving factors for the development of the industry, and the rapid growth of the national economy has greatly promoted the development of the construction industry. Since 2002, the contribution rate of China's construction industry to the national economy has remained above 5%. The gross output value of the construction industry increased from 1.985 to 501.900 million yuan in 2006; The added value increased from19.55 billion yuan in 1980 to1401400 million yuan in 2007.

(1) Every increase in GDP of1billion can boost the total output value of the construction industry by 239.9 million yuan.

We made a regression analysis between GDP 1995-2007 and the total output value of the construction industry. The results show that the correlation between construction industry and GDP is very high, and the correlation coefficient is 0.9985. Regression analysis shows that every increase of 654.38+0 billion yuan in GDP can boost the total output value of construction industry by 239.9 million yuan.

(2) The scale of investment in fixed assets basically determines the market scale of domestic construction industry. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2007, the fixed assets investment of the whole society was117413438+0 billion yuan, an increase of 25% over the previous year. Driven by the growth of investment in fixed assets, the total output value of the construction industry has also increased substantially.

We also use the data of 1995-2007, with fixed assets investment as the explanatory variable and the gross output value of the construction industry as the explained quantity. The scatter plot of the two variables shows that there is an obvious linear relationship between the two variables, and its determining coefficient is 0.989. Regression analysis shows that every increase in fixed assets investment of 1 100 million yuan can drive the total output value of construction industry to increase by 430 million yuan.

According to China's future investment in fixed assets, it is predicted that the total demand of the future construction industry will be: by 20 10, the total output value (turnover) of the construction industry is expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 7%, and the added value of the construction industry will reach more than150 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 8%, accounting for about 7% of the GDP.

(2) Infrastructure construction and urbanization are the specific driving forces of industrial development.

(1) traffic infrastructure

From the international experience, large-scale infrastructure construction and urbanization are the necessary stages for developing countries to enter developed countries. Generally speaking, most developed countries have to go through nearly 30 years of construction before they can basically form a relatively perfect transportation infrastructure. The large-scale infrastructure construction in China really started in the middle and late period of 1990. According to the average construction period of 30 or even 40 years, the infrastructure construction in China is only in the initial stage. In the field of transportation infrastructure construction, the gap between China and developed countries is even greater. According to the data analysis of the World Bank, even compared with other developing countries in Asia, the mileage of roads and railways in China is still far below the average level of developed countries. China's infrastructure construction, especially transportation infrastructure construction, will be one of the main markets of civil engineering and construction industry. In the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-20 10), the central government will plan to invest 3.8 trillion RMB in transportation infrastructure, an increase of 73% over the period of the 10th Five-Year Plan.

(2) Real estate construction

With the gradual advancement of urbanization in China, the process of "housing industrialization" has also been greatly accelerated. According to the research, every one percentage point increase of urbanization rate in China will boost GDP growth by more than two percentage points, and at the same time increase urban population160,000. If calculated by 20 square meters per capita, the housing demand will increase by 320 million square meters.

It is predicted that the accelerated growth period of urbanization rate in China will last until 2020, when the urban population in China will account for 65% of the total population.

Compared with the existing urban population, it means that there will be about 10.6 billion new urban population in the next10 year, and the demand for housing, transportation, public buildings and other infrastructure is huge.

In the past two years, the real estate market in China has experienced explosive growth. In order to promote the healthy development of the real estate market, the state has issued a series of macro-control policies, and the excessive growth of real estate investment has been initially curbed. However, from the perspective of total investment, the construction demand of real estate market is still the main market of civil construction industry.

Second, the profitability of the construction industry has declined recently (1) The economic growth rate has slowed down this year. The global economic growth rate is slowing down, the prices of primary products such as energy and grain are rising, and there is great uncertainty in the external economic environment.

National statistics in the first quarter showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) was 61491100 million yuan, up by 10.6% year-on-year, and down by 1. 1 percentage point compared with the same period last year. Investment in fixed assets grew steadily, with a growth rate of 25.9%, 0.6 percentage points faster than the same period last year. However, the current macro-control policies will not change for a long time, the overheated investment in fixed assets will be further improved, and the growth rate of fixed investment will gradually slow down. From June 5438 to April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China reached 3,369.7 billion yuan, up 2 1.0% year-on-year, and the contribution of consumption to economic growth continued to be maintained. China's exports reached $305.9 billion, up by 2 1.4%, down by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, achieving a trade surplus of $41400 million, down by $4.9 billion year-on-year. The pulling effect of net exports on economic growth is weakened. The data shows that the role of "Troika" in stimulating the economy has decreased, and the trend of slowing down the macro-economic growth in China has begun to appear. At the present stage, the focus of China's economic work is still to limit investment overheating and inflation through double-tightening macro-control policies.

(B) rising costs bring variables to the profitability of construction enterprises.

(1) The price of building materials keeps rising.

Since June 5438+ 10, 2007, steel prices have been rising continuously. Since February 2008, the price of iron ore has increased by 65%, and the price of construction steel has risen sharply compared with 2007. Affected by the snowstorm, the cumulative cement output in China in the first two months of this year was 6543.8+0.4 billion tons, down 2.80% year-on-year. The decrease of supply leads to the increase of cement price. In 2008, the rising trend of building materials prices in China intensified. Since the Spring Festival, the increase of domestic building materials is generally around 20%- 40%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the PPI of industrial products nationwide increased by 8.2% year-on-year in May, and the growth rate was 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year, which was the fifth consecutive month to hit a monthly high in three years. Among them, the ex-factory price of means of production increased by 9.2% year-on-year, the prices of gasoline, diesel and raw coal increased by 1 1.0%,1.8% and 24. 1% respectively, and the energy price increased greatly. Coal cost accounts for about 40%-50% of cement production cost. Iron ore and coal constitute the main cost of building steel production, while the rising prices of raw materials and energy make the prices of building materials keep rising.

(2) Labor costs are increasing.

With the continuous improvement of the position of the construction industry in the national economy and the continuous expansion of the scale of the construction industry, China has strengthened the supervision of the safety of construction projects, further improved the construction of safety production regulations, technical standards and other related systems, and increased the labor cost of the construction industry. The implementation of the new labor law in 2008 increased the hidden cost of employment in construction enterprises.

In 2007, China's economy entered the rising channel of inflation, and the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.8%, 3.3 percentage points higher than the previous year. Rising prices and inflation will inevitably lead to increasing labor costs.

(3) The bargaining power of construction enterprises is low, and the rising cost will definitely reduce the profits of the industry.

In the total construction cost of construction enterprises, raw materials account for about 50%-60% and labor costs account for about 5%- 10%. Raw material prices continue to rise, labor costs continue to rise, and the cost of construction enterprises has risen sharply, which has a great impact on the profits of the construction industry. Although the current construction industry is dominated by open-ended contracts and construction enterprises have certain bargaining power, the building materials industry in the upstream of the construction industry has strong cost transfer ability, while the infrastructure, real estate and other industries in the downstream of the construction industry have strong bargaining power, so it will be an indisputable fact that the profits of construction enterprises living between the two will be reduced.

Third, the railway construction industry has outstanding opportunities.

(A) The development of transportation infrastructure in China is unbalanced.

With the rapid development of China's economy and the accelerating pace of industrialization and urbanization, the investment and construction of infrastructure has become an important foundation for China's economic development. In the mid-1990s, China entered the era of large-scale infrastructure construction, and transportation infrastructure construction became the focus of development.

In 1980s and 1990s, China used the transportation development model of the United States for reference, and took highway infrastructure construction as the development focus. However, the investment in railway construction was relatively insufficient, and the per capita railway mileage was far from that of developed countries.

In recent years, with the development of China's economy, the railway transportation capacity is obviously insufficient. In order to solve the problem of lagging railway construction in China, the state has increased railway investment, which has enabled China's railway construction to enter a new golden development stage.

(2) During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, investment in transportation infrastructure was increased.

During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the state invested 3.8 trillion yuan in transportation infrastructure, an increase of 73% over the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.

During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the investment budget of the Ministry of Railways was 1.25 trillion, more than four times that of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. According to the 11th Five-Year Plan, the railway line10.7 million kilometers will be built, including 7000 kilometers of railway passenger dedicated line; Accelerate the transformation of 8,000 kilometers of existing railways; Upgrade 15000 km railway line to electrified railway; Extend the total mileage of domestic high-speed railway lines to more than 20 thousand kilometers; By the end of 20 10, the total mileage of domestic railway network will be extended to 90,000 kilometers.

(3) Increase the scale of investment in railway construction.

The investment scale of railway construction in China is unprecedented. In 2006, China's railway capital construction investment was1552.75 billion yuan, an increase of 76.4% over 2005. In 2007, the investment in railway capital construction was as high as 1, 77,265.438 billion yuan, an increase of 1 over the previous year.50080.000000000605

After the rapid growth of railway investment in China in 2005-2006, the investment growth rate slowed down.

According to the railway "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" target, from 2006 to 20 10, China's railway investment will be125 billion, with an average annual investment of 250 billion. At present, there is still a certain gap between the scale of railway investment in China and the requirements of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. At the beginning of 2008, the Ministry of Railways revealed that this year, China Railway plans to complete the capital construction investment of 300 billion yuan, newly build 44 15 kilometers of track laying and 3,405 kilometers of double track. Although relevant data show that the growth rate of railway investment in China slowed down in 2007, the scale of railway investment will continue to grow steadily in the next few years. With the development of China's railway investment and financing system reform, the shortage of railway investment funds will be gradually improved, and the rapid development of railway construction will continue.