How big is the space for infrastructure investment in China?

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, infrastructure investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the 3.8% in 20 18, and the cumulative growth rate rebounded for the first time in the year. As a counter-cyclical regulator of the economy, infrastructure has finally shown its true colors in the economic growth from 1 to 10.

Judging from the "three golden flowers" of steel, cement and construction machinery in the infrastructure industry chain, the characteristics of steel boom, cement production and sales boom and continuous high boom of construction machinery are obvious: from 1 to 10 this year, China's apparent steel consumption (output plus net imports) reached 782 million tons, up about 7% year-on-year; Affected by market demand, the national cement output in June was 5438+0 to 5438+907 million tons, up 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.2% year-on-year. Before 10, the cumulative total sales volume of domestic excavators was196,200 sets, up by 14.4% year-on-year.

With the current policy gradually increasing the inclination of special debt funds to help infrastructure investment, coupled with the combination boxing of reducing the minimum capital ratio of infrastructure projects, infrastructure is expected to usher in a new round of efforts.

1, special bonds are issued in advance to help infrastructure investment.

Looking at the infrastructure investment in the first ten months of this year, the overall structure shows the characteristics of differentiation: railway investment is relatively strong, and public facilities management investment, especially municipal engineering investment, is weak. In view of this, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) has made it clear that the special bonds issued in advance will be used not only for transportation infrastructure such as railways, rail transit and urban parking lots, but also for energy projects such as urban and rural power grids and natural gas pipe networks, eco-environmental protection projects such as agriculture, forestry, water conservancy and urban sewage and garbage disposal, people's livelihood services such as vocational education and child care, medical care and old-age care, as well as municipal and industrial park infrastructure such as cold chain logistics facilities and water, electricity and heat, and the scope of application will be expanded.

Issuing 1 trillion local government special bonds in advance is also the requirement of implementing the "accelerating the issuance and use of local government special bonds" at the the State Council executive meeting on September 4th. According to the requirements of the meeting, the amount of special bonds issued in advance will not be used in land reserve and real estate-related fields, nor will it be used in bond swap or fully commercialized industrial projects. Therefore, special bonds will focus more on infrastructure investment, and it can be expected that their actual pulling effect on infrastructure will be significantly enhanced.

It should be noted that it will take some time from the issuance of special debt line to the final procedure of formal issuance, so the positive effect of policy hedging on infrastructure investment may not be clearly reflected until early next year. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, some industrial raw materials may start to be produced vigorously, which is manifested in the recent continuous decline in steel inventories and the continuous increase in cement prices.

2. The capital ratio will be reduced to help the recovery of infrastructure.

In mid-June, the General Offices of the General Office of the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Local Government Issuing Special Bonds and Supporting Project Financing, allowing special bonds to be used as qualified capital for major projects. Later, the Notice of the State Council on Strengthening the Capital Management of Fixed Assets Investment Projects lowered the minimum capital ratio of infrastructure projects, and the policy tilted towards infrastructure again.

Adjusting the minimum capital ratio of the project is of great benefit to the adjustment of infrastructure investment structure: at present, there are still many shortcomings in infrastructure fields such as transportation, water conservancy, energy, ecological environment protection and people's livelihood. The decline in the minimum capital ratio of these infrastructure projects will reduce the capital demand in project investment and attract special debts and private capital to participate in infrastructure projects.

Adjusting the minimum capital ratio of projects can significantly promote the high-quality development of infrastructure investment: on the one hand, the decline of the minimum capital ratio of infrastructure projects will fully mobilize the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in infrastructure investment in related fields, improve the investment ability of social capital, and support the shortcomings and expand domestic demand; On the other hand, if the capital ratio of inland rivers, coastal areas, highways, railways and eco-environmental protection projects can be reduced by 5%, it is estimated that the incremental capital 1. 1.9 trillion yuan can be mobilized.

3. Policy and market are linked, and infrastructure is growing steadily.

At present, there are signs that infrastructure projects have begun to pick up. Taking transportation infrastructure construction as an example, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other provinces have recently entered an intensive construction stage, and projects such as "railways, highways, airports" and urban rail have begun to surge. With the gradual arrival of funds, the follow-up infrastructure projects are expected to focus on releasing demand.

At the same time, "new infrastructure construction" projects such as 5G, big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, industrial Internet and Internet of Things have gradually entered the scope of policy encouragement and become investment highlights. Since the beginning of this year, Beijing, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Fujian and other provinces have deployed new infrastructure construction. The investment model of "new infrastructure" is more flexible and there are many opportunities for market players.

With the implementation of the two fiscal countercyclical policies of special debt and capital management, the financing capacity of infrastructure projects will be significantly improved, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly in 2020. Under the macro environment of taking measures to break the bottleneck of infrastructure investment, the market enthusiasm will continue to rise, and the current market's high attention to cyclical sectors is the best example.

Looking forward to 2020, infrastructure will be an important support for economic growth. Traditional infrastructure, such as "TieGong Ji", and medium and long-term projects, such as "short-term infrastructure" and "new infrastructure construction", are expected to boost the economy. Of course, in addition to substantial "efforts", continuing to "improve efficiency" is still the focus of infrastructure development. Complementing investment shortcomings and improving investment efficiency should be the focus of countercyclical adjustment in the next stage.

Under the downward pressure of the economy, the current infrastructure investment is greatly restricted by the lack of local financial resources and the strict control of hidden debts. Issuing special bonds in advance and reducing the proportion of project capital are conducive to expanding the investment scale of infrastructure projects and strengthening countercyclical adjustment. Of course, whether the infrastructure investment with high hopes can win back the market expectation still needs the timely implementation of policies and the precise implementation of supporting measures.