The real status of 183 car companies: 4S stores only resume work at 8%, caught in five major dilemmas

Car stuff

Wen? |?Bear

Car stuff February 13 news, today, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Association of Automobile Manufacturers") released the development of the national automobile industry in January 2020.2020, China's automobile industry production of automobiles 1,783,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 24.6%; sales of 1,941,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 18%. automobiles of 1.941 million units, down 18% year-on-year.

New-energy vehicles, which maintained a counter-trend growth in January 2019, suffered a relatively large drop in sales in January 2020 this year due to the triple impact of subsidy rollback, the Chinese New Year holiday and the new Crown Pneumonia outbreak.In January 2020, China's new-energy vehicle production stood at 40,000 vehicles, down 55.4 percent year-on-year, while sales stood at 44,000 vehicles, down 54.4 percent year-on-year.

▲Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles in January 2020

But the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said that the decline in production and sales in the national auto market in January this year was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday spread over the month of January, and there were only 17 effective working days in January, which is a decrease of 5 days compared with that of last year, and thus production and sales have both declined.

And the new Crown Pneumonia epidemic only gradually began to have an impact after the start of the Spring Festival holiday on January 20, which had little effect on the key indicators of the automobile industry in January, but will make the number of automobile production and sales in February and the following months to see a considerable decline.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) pointed out, "In the past 2019, China's auto market declined continuously, the economic effect declined, and the automobile industry entered a period of deep adjustment. 2020, the original adjustment period is coming to an end, and the overall market stabilized. But the "black swan" new crown pneumonia epidemic hit the automotive industry, the whole car, parts and components industry are greatly affected, the butterfly effect of the epidemic will appear, or will affect the future pattern of the global automotive market."

According to the CACA's monitoring of 183 production bases out of more than 300 automobile industry production bases nationwide, 59 of them have resumed production, with a resumption rate of about 32.2 percent. The China Automobile Dealers Association also recently announced that the combined resumption rate of 4S stores under 60 dealer groups was only 8.4 percent.

This article on today's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released key data on China's auto industry in January 2020, the impact of the new Crown pneumonia outbreak on the industry, as well as the industry's recovery at the moment line of combing, the following is the dry content:

One, China's auto sales in January, down 18% year-on-year? Annual sales situation is more difficult to judge

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) today, in January 2020, China's automobile production was 1.783 million units, down 24.6% year-on-year, down 33.5% from a year earlier; sales of 1.941 million units, down 18% year-on-year, down 27% from a year earlier.

Among them, passenger car production and sales amounted to 1.444 million and 1.614 million, down 27.6% and 20.2% year-on-year, and 33.9% and 27.1% sequentially, respectively.

Commercial vehicle production and sales amounted to 341,000 units and 326,000 units, down 7.8% and 5.7% year-on-year, and down 31.4% and 26.7% sequentially.

New-energy vehicle production and sales in January totaled 40,000 and 44,000 units, down 55.4% and 54.4% year-on-year, respectively.

The production and sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to complete 35,000 and 39,000 units, down 56.3% and 54.5% year-on-year, while the production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles are expected to complete 0.5 million units, down 37.4% and 51.7% year-on-year, respectively.

The CCA said the new crown pneumonia epidemic is not the main reason for the year-on-year decline in auto production and sales in January this year. The real impact is that this year's Spring Festival holiday is concentrated in January, the entire January effective working days only 17 days, shortened by 5 days compared with the usual. Reduced working period, declining production capacity and weakened market demand caused by the early arrival of the Spring Festival is the reason for the overall decline in auto production and sales in January this year.

However, the CCA emphasized that the impact of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic on China's auto market this year cannot be ignored. Originally, the downward trend of China's auto production and sales had narrowed by the end of 2019, and the period of adjustment in the auto industry was about to come to an end, and 2020 would enter the recovery phase of China's auto industry.

But the new Crown Pneumonia epidemic in the short term, on China's whole car, parts and components industry have caused a greater impact, although the epidemic is short-term, but the epidemic for the whole year the negative impact on the automobile market may be huge. In particular, the subsequent February, March and even April automobile production and sales, are likely to be affected by the epidemic, and production and sales decline.

Car Stuff asked questions in the interview session after the meeting about the forecast of auto production and sales for the whole year of 2020 as well as the recovery of the auto industry.

▲Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM)

Xu Haidong said that, for the recovery of China's automobile industry, among 183 vehicle production bases that have already provided feedback to CAAM on their plans for resumption of work, 59 bases have already started resumption of work as of Feb. 12, accounting for 32.2 percent of the total number of bases.

But the China Automobile Dealers Association recently released data, as of February 12, the association researched 60 dealer groups, *** counting 3,997 automobile 4S stores, the comprehensive resumption rate of only 8.4%.

For this year's annual auto production and sales forecast and when the auto industry can be restored to the level before the epidemic, Xu Haidong said: "The epidemic has not ushered in a clear inflection point, for the automotive industry production situation to return to the pre-epidemic point in time, now it is not good to judge, corresponding to the full-year sales volume can not be given an accurate figure now. "

Two, Azure sold 1,600 electric SUVs in January? take pure electric SUV sales?

In the monthly auto industry data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the sales ranking of the electric vehicle market is usually not included. A few days ago, the China Automotive Technology Research Center announced the domestic electric SUV on the insurance volume in January this year, through this data, you can also see the new energy vehicle sales decline in the context of the performance of the various players.

It should be noted that although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined by more than 50 percent year-on-year, the head enterprises of new energy vehicles are still maintaining good results.

▲Data on the number of domestic electric SUVs insured in January released by the China Automotive Technology Research Center (CATRC)

According to the data released by CATRC, the overall insured volume of Azera vehicles reached 1,600 units in January. Among them, 1,483 units of Azera ES6 were insured, taking the single-month sales title in the pure electric SUV segment.

And Xiaopeng Auto's frequent live webcasts of car purchases from the end of last year have also achieved some success, with the Xiaopeng G3 selling 1,073 units in January this year, second only to the Azure ES6 in the purely electric SUV segment.

The Nezha N01 and the BYD Yuan EV sold 1,025 and 912 units, respectively, in January this year, ranking between third and Fourth place, sales are lukewarm. Especially the Yuan EV, compared to last year's single-month sales of several thousand units of level, this year's January sales is not enough to see, BYD in the field of electric SUV advantage almost completely lost.

Weimar, which was previously known as one of the "top three new car makers" along with Azure and Xiaopeng, didn't do well in January this year, selling only 808 units, ranking fifth in the segment.

Another point worth mentioning is that Tesla Model?X and Audi e-tron, two pure-electric SUVs priced at more than 500,000 yuan, also made the list, which also shows that domestic consumers' acceptance of electric SUVs from luxury brands is on the rise.

It should be noted, however, that in February, when the epidemic raged, and in March and April, when the epidemic is likely to remain, the new-energy vehicle sector faced no less sales pressure than the traditional auto industry. Especially new energy vehicle enterprises in the new car-making forces, in its own volume is small, poor risk-resistant ability, the general environment of the capital winter, coupled with the epidemic brought about by the production and marketing problems, how to survive this winter is very critical.

Three, the winter intensified? Epidemic will have five major impact on the auto industry

Early 2020, the sudden spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the macroeconomic situation in China has had a huge impact, and the auto industry is very dependent on macroeconomic development. Under this epidemic, China's automobile industry is facing a serious challenge.

The supply chain problems, market problems, and financial pressure on parts and components SMEs caused by the epidemic have added to the downward pressure on the auto industry.

Particularly in the Hubei region where the epidemic is serious, the region's annual automobile output accounts for 8-9 percent of the national output, and is the main town of China's automobile industry, and the serious epidemic in Hubei has also brought challenges for China's auto industry to recover from the adjustment period.

In addition, the epidemic is more serious in Guangdong, Zhejiang is also China's automotive industry province, vehicle production and sales and parts production and sales will be affected.

At present, 183 of the more than 300 vehicle and parts companies researched by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) have provided feedback on the detailed situation of the companies in the epidemic. Based on these situations, CAAM has summarized the five major impacts of the epidemic on China's automobile industry:

▲CAAM summarizes the five major impacts of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic on the automobile industry

1, the demand for car purchases and consumption

After the outbreak of the epidemic, the whole society was actively mobilized to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and the self-isolation of individuals, an act that brought the epidemic under control in the short term.

But this also greatly reduced consumers' short-term car-buying behavior, seriously affecting auto sales, and it is expected that consumers' self-isolation will also affect auto sales for some time after the lifting of the first-order response to the new Crown pneumonia outbreak.

At the same time, the epidemic for transportation, residual shadow, tourism, shopping malls, film and television industries, directly affecting the economic efficiency of enterprises, the income of practitioners affected, this part of the practitioners of the consumer capacity has been reduced.

It should also be noted that since 2018, the low- and middle-income people have been subjected to multiple shocks, in the bottom of the consumption capacity for the recovery of the situation again encountered the epidemic, so that the group's income situation has worsened, the consumption capacity is further weakened, and the short term, the overall consumer demand for automobiles is further reduced.

2, the enterprise production progress is hindered

affected by the epidemic, all over the country have introduced a delay in the resumption of work notice.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on more than 300 vehicle, parts and components enterprise research, the delay in the resumption of work to make the start date of these enterprises delayed by an average of 7-11 days, the situation is even worse in Hubei.

Most regions also require employees to stay at home for observation after returning to their workplaces, further delaying the resumption of work. This also affected the production and sales of vehicle and parts companies in the automotive industry, resulting in a certain percentage of frontline production staff shortages, leading to the risk of supply shortages in the automotive industry supply chain.

In addition, some enterprises have insufficient personnel protection materials, and it is also difficult to support the demand for the resumption of production.

Many provincial and municipal areas and township roads have also introduced restrictions on the strict inspection, the implementation of high-speed inspection and other measures, affecting the transportation of vehicles, parts and components, this phenomenon for the recent expedited production of negative pressure ambulance enterprises, the impact of these restrictions is particularly serious.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects that the current outbreak may lead to a reduction of domestic automobile production by millions of units, and this impact will be even more serious if the resumption of work is further delayed.

3, enterprise export difficulties increase?

The World Health Organization has now the new coronavirus infected pneumonia outbreak has constituted an international concern of public **** health emergencies.

Some countries and enterprises to prevent the spread of the epidemic on the grounds that the refusal to accept the goods have been ordered, the existing orders to make the withdrawal.

At present, there are more than 60 countries have implemented entry control measures in China, which leads to China's enterprises enterprises to develop overseas markets have been hindered, although at present China's automobile exports are small, but the parts and components of the export volume is larger, which is also on the production and operation of China's parts and components enterprises has caused greater pressure.

At the same time, due to the supply chain tension caused by the inability to resume work in a timely manner, the delayed delivery of some of the enterprise export orders, for this part of the enterprise's subsequent orders signed a negative impact.

4, small and medium-sized enterprise capital chain break potential increase

Delayed by the resumption of work by the impact of the automotive business production, business stop, income and cash flow disruption.

But including rent, wages, interest and other expenditures still need to be paid as usual, according to a few days ago, Beijing Benz revealed that its delay in the resumption of work during the loss of up to 400 million yuan per day, which is a great test of the enterprise's financial strength. Some of the smaller volume, weaker risk-resistant enterprises, will likely face the risk of bankruptcy and closure.

5, the enterprise to deal with the difficulty of standards and regulations greatly intensified

July 1 this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the National VI emission standards will be more stringent implementation of the number of light-duty vehicles particulate matter limits, the national synchronization of the landing of the National VI standard A stage.

On May 1 this year, the Ministry of Transportation and the relevant technical safety standards for trucks and tractor trailers will also come into force.

By the impact of this epidemic, enterprises need to accelerate the digestion of the current inventory, and in the new standards before the landing, the listing of standard vehicles and parts products. For many companies, such a requirement is more difficult.

Four, passenger association: narrow passenger car sales fell 21.5% year-on-year? Crisis in the epidemic coexisted

Just shortly after the end of the CCAA conference, the passenger association also announced the January 2020 China passenger car market as a whole.

Data from the CPC showed that in January 2020, the production and sales of narrowly defined passenger cars (hereinafter referred to as "passenger cars") in China amounted to 1,398,000 and 1,699,000 units, down 29% and 21.5% year-on-year, and down 32.7% and 20.8% sequentially, respectively.

▲January passenger car production analysis table

Segmented production, sedans, MPVs and SUVs in January this year were 652,000, 74,000 and 671,000 units, down 31.1%, 47.6% and 23.7% year-on-year, and 29.9%, 47% and 33.3% from a year earlier, respectively.

▲January passenger car sales analysis table

Segment sales, sedans, MPVs and SUVs sold 818,000, 101,000 and 780,000 units in January this year, down 23.7%, 33.1% and 17.1% year-on-year, and 19.7%, 23.4% and 21.6% from a year earlier, respectively.

According to the analysis of the passenger association, the decline in production and sales in January mainly received the influence of the Spring Festival factor, the effective working days before the Spring Festival is 17 days, the effective sales day is 20 days, theoretically bring the loss of production and sales are more than 30%.

Originally, the dealer's order carry-over can alleviate part of the sales pressure at the beginning of the year, but due to the sudden new Crown pneumonia epidemic, the dealer's retail sales during the Spring Festival basically ceased, the sales growth rate in January was lower than expected.

Overall sales of passenger car makers, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen still occupy the top two spots on the list, with monthly sales of 187,000 and 146,000 units, respectively.

▲January Passenger Car Sales Manufacturers' Ranking List

Shanghai Automobile General Motors (SAIC-GM) ranked third in the list with 124,000 units sold in January, while Geely Automobile (Geely), an independent brand, ranked fourth in the list with 102,000 units sold in January (tentative estimation), making it the only independent brand carmaker on the list. Dongfeng Nissan sold 101,000 vehicles in January, ranking fifth.

Shanghai Automotive General Motors (SAIC-GM) Wuling, Guangzhou Honda, Dongfeng Honda, Guangzhou Toyota and Beijing Benz, which ranked in the bottom five, did not sell more than 100,000 vehicles in January.

Passenger Federation expects, although the epidemic period, many car companies carried out a "cloud car", online orders and other network marketing activities, but the overall view of the effect is very little, the entire automotive industry in February, the production and operation of the slower response.

Not only that, the car companies in the short term production and operation is facing a lot of pressure.

In the current situation, the auto parts system in the automobile town of Hubei region is difficult to resume production on time, coupled with road closures and village closures around the featured model, many areas of personnel and logistics are difficult to run smoothly, many car companies resume production there are difficulties.

And by the impact of the epidemic, the purchasing power of consumers and consumer confidence are greatly reduced, for car sales is very unfavorable.

But the Federation also believes that the epidemic is not a part of the survival of the automotive industry, all parties should be like a way to help enterprises to live, especially the epidemic in the serious areas of the OEMs and parts companies.

Fortunately, a number of industry associations actively advise, the central and local governments to introduce a variety of bills to help enterprises to tide over the difficulties of the epidemic. Car companies in crisis, but also played their social responsibility, actively donate money and goods to the serious areas of the epidemic. According to incomplete statistics, the total amount of materials and cash donated by major car companies has exceeded 1 billion yuan.

At the same time, the Federation also pointed out that the epidemic actually "danger" and "opportunity" coexist.

On the one hand, in the epidemic, car companies are difficult to resume work, consumers have a low desire to buy, the net car market demand is small, including new energy vehicles, including the entire automotive industry supply and demand have shrunk significantly.

On the other hand, after the brief suppression of the epidemic, consumers' desire to buy cars will briefly explode, and the first buyer group will have a stronger desire to buy.

The outbreak of the desire to buy will stimulate car companies to ship large quantities of goods, at this time, companies with inventory will benefit.

In addition, the first buyers tend to choose cost-effective brands and models, in this wave of car purchases, the independent brands hope to recover some of the losses suffered in the epidemic.

Conclusion: the new Crown pneumonia epidemic will continue to affect China's auto industry

The impact of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic is a short-term impact, but so far, the epidemic has not ushered in the inflection point, when China's automotive industry can be restored to the level of the epidemic before the current can not be made to judge.

The direct impact of the epidemic has included a reduction in China's automobile output by millions of units throughout the year, and small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain of the automobile industry are facing bankruptcy. Although the market may usher in a brief consumption peak after the end of the epidemic, the overall development situation for the whole year is not optimistic.

But it's worth mentioning that governments around the world are actively introducing economic protection policies to reduce the burden on enterprises, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments are urging localities and departments to coordinate the difficulties and problems of enterprises in a timely manner. At present, of the 183 vehicle production bases that have provided feedback to the CAC about their plans to resume work, 59 bases have begun resuming work as of Feb. 12, accounting for 32.2 percent of the total.

In the long run, the epidemic may play the role of a "sieve" in the auto industry, screening out companies with strong risk tolerance and excellent product quality, and further optimizing the structure of China's auto industry.

This article comes from the author of the automobile home car, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.