History of Statistics

During the Xia-Yu era (22nd century BC), the nine states were divided into nine states with a population of about 13.52 million, which shows the long history of population statistics. The Book of Books - Yugong Chapters, which describes the basic land conditions of the nine states, is regarded as the "earliest germ of statistics" by Western economists. The Western Zhou Dynasty established a more systematic statistical reporting system. During the Qin Dynasty, the Book of the Lord of Shang (商君书), which was written by the Qin Emperor, stated that "a strong state knows thirteen numbers", including food reserves, the number of people in each country, agricultural production materials and natural resources.

In the 27th century BC, Egypt conducted a national population and property survey for the construction of pyramids and large-scale agricultural irrigation systems. In the 15th century B.C., the Jews conducted surveys of the male population for war purposes.

In the 6th century BC, the Roman Empire mandated that a survey of population, land, livestock and slaves be conducted every five years, and that the total amount of property be used as the basis for dividing the rich from the poor and for taxing the men.

From the 15th to 18th centuries, many statistical works appeared in Europe to report on the state of the nation.

After the 1830s, the so-called "age of statistical mania" emerged.

In the seventeenth century, people living in England became interested in "political arithmetic. In 1662, John Graunt published 'natural and political observations upon the bills of mortality', which analyzed the proportion of boys and girls born and developed the type of mortality tables used by insurance companies.

English statistics, coined about the middle of the eighteenth century by the German scholar Gottfried Achenwall, were derived from the union of statestatus and German political arithmetic, and were first used by John Sinclair, appearing in 1797 in Encyclopaedia Britannica. (Earlier there was also a competition between the words publicitics and statistics for the meaning of "statistics", which came to be popularized as publicitical learning). Modern statistics refers to the end of the 18th century to the end of the 19th century descriptive statistics, its development process is closely related to the extensive study and application of probability theory, in statistical analysis in some of the basic methods and terminology are often used in this period, for example: the least square method, the normal distribution curve, the calculation of the error, and so on.

In the modern development of statistics in a hundred years, also formed a number of schools, including mathematical statistics and social statistics school is the most famous. The original founder of the school of mathematical statistics is the Belgian A-Ketjen, whose greatest contribution is to introduce the French classical probability into statistics, with a purely mathematical approach to the study of social phenomena; the first advocate of the school of social statistics is Germany's K-Kneece, who believes that the object of statistical research is a social phenomenon, and the research method of a large number of observation method. In the development process of modern statistics, the contradiction between these two schools of thought is relatively large.

1. Overview

Statistics in English was first derived from the modern Latin statisticum collegium (parliament) and the Italian statista (national or politician). The German word statistik, first used by Gottfried Achenwall (1749), stood for the study of the analysis of national data, or "the science of the study of nations". In the nineteenth century statistics explored the significance of a wide range of data and information, and was introduced to the English-speaking world by John Sinclair.

Statistics is a very old science, generally recognized as having begun its doctrinal study in the time of Aristotle in Ancient Greece, more than 2,300 years ago. It originated in the study of social and economic issues, in the development process of more than two thousand years, statistics has gone through at least "city-state political situation", "political arithmetic" and "statistical analysis of science" in the three stages of development. The so-called "mathematical statistics". The so-called "mathematical statistics" is not a new discipline independent of statistics, but rather a comprehensive term for all the new methods of collecting and analyzing data formed in the third stage of the development of statistics. Probability theory is the theoretical basis of mathematical statistics, but it does not belong to the category of statistics, but belongs to the category of mathematics.

2. Three stages

1. The first stage is called "Matters of state" (Matters of state) stage

The "Matters of state" stage began with Aristotle in ancient Greece. "Matters of state" or "Chronicle of the city and state". "City-state politics" type of statistical research continued for one or two thousand years, until the mid-seventeenth century was gradually replaced by the term "political arithmetic", and soon evolved into "statistics" (Statistics). "Statistics. Statistics still retains the root word state.

2. The second stage is called "Politcal arithmetic" (Politcal arithmetic)

There is no clear demarcation from the stage of "City-State Politics", and there is very little difference in nature. The "political arithmetic" was characterized by the beginning of the integration of statistical methods with mathematical calculations and reasoning. The way of analyzing socio-economic problems became more focused on the use of quantitative methods of analysis.

In 1690, William Wardy published a book (Political Arithmetic) as a symbol of the beginning of this stage.

William's method of quantifying socio-economic phenomena in terms of numbers, weights and measures is an important feature of modern statistics. As a result, William Allotment's (political arithmetic) has been evaluated by later scholars as the source of modern statistics, and William Allotment himself has been evaluated as the father of modern statistics. There are three types of numbers used in the book: the first type is the numbers obtained from statistical surveys and empirical observations of socio-economic phenomena. The second category is the figures deduced by using certain mathematical methods. The third category is illustrative figures used for theoretical reasoning.

3. The third stage is called the "Science of statistical analysis" (Science of statistical analysis) stage

The trend of combining statistics and mathematics that appeared in the stage of "political arithmetic" gradually developed into the stage of "political arithmetic". The tendency to combine statistics and mathematics in the phase of "political arithmetic" gradually developed into the "science of statistical analysis".

Toward the end of the nineteenth century, the names of the courses offered by European universities, such as "State of the Union" or "Political Arithmetic", gradually disappeared and were replaced by "Science of statistical analysis". The course was replaced by the "Science of Statistical Analysis". At that time, the content of the "statistical analysis of science" course is still analyzing the study of socio-economic problems.

The emergence of the "science of statistical analysis" course is the beginning of the modern stage of statistical development, in 1908, "Student" (William Sleey Gosset's pseudonym Student) published a paper on t-distribution. The paper on the t-distribution. It created a new era in statistics by replacing large samples with small ones.

The first representative of modern statistics was the Belgian statistician Adolphe Quelet, who applied the science of statistical analysis to a wide range of social, natural, and engineering sciences.

The theoretical foundation of modern statistics, probability theory, began with the study of chance in gambling around 1477. Mathematicians conducted long-term research to explain the general laws governing chance, and gradually formed the theoretical framework of probability theory. On the basis of the further development of probability theory, by the beginning of the nineteenth century, mathematicians gradually established the theory of observation error, the theory of normal distribution and the least square law. Thus, modern statistical methods have a relatively solid theoretical foundation.

3. Different Schools of Thought

I. 18th-19th Century - The Creation and Development of Statistics

Germany's Sleutz once said, "Statistics is dynamic history, history is static statistics. " It can be seen that the creation and development of statistics is closely linked to the development of production and social progress.

(1) the founding period of statistics

The germ of statistics arose in Europe. the middle of the 17th century to the middle of the 18th century is the founding period of statistics. In this period, the theory of statistics initially formed a certain academic school, mainly the school of state and political arithmetic.

1, the national school

National school, also known as the school of narrative, emerged in the 17th century in Germany. As the school mainly used words to describe the notable matters of the country, it is called the school of description. Its main representatives are Heilmann Conlin and Ahenwald. Conlin was the first to teach the knowledge required of political activists at the University of Helmstedt under the title of "Statecraft". At the University of G?ttingen, Ahenwald organized a course on "Statecraft", and his main work was the "Outline of Statecraft in Modern Europe". Because of the similarity of the words "national situation" and "statistics" in foreign languages, it was later officially named "statistics". The school in the comparative analysis of the national situation, favoring the interpretation of the nature of things, rather than focusing on the number of comparisons and quantitative calculations, but for the development of statistics laid the foundation of economic theory. However, with the development of capitalist market economy, the calculation and analysis of the quantity of things become more and more important, the school later split, divided into the chart school and the comparative school.

2, political arithmetic school

Political arithmetic school arose in the middle of the 19th century in the United Kingdom, the founder of the William Match (1623-1687), whose masterpiece is his book "Political Arithmetic" completed in 1676, which laid the methodological foundation for the formation and development of statistics. Thus Marx said, "William Pettigrew - the father of political economy - was in a way also the founder of statistics."

Another representative of the school of political arithmetic was John Grunt (1620-1674). He used the weekly "Gazette of Deaths" published by the Church of London in 1604 as a source of research, and in 1662 he published his treatise "Natural and Political Observations on the Gazette of Deaths". In the book, he analyzed the causes of death and the relationship between population changes in London over the past 60 years, and proposed for the first time that through a large number of observations, it was possible to find the stability of the sex ratio of newborns and the ratio of different causes of death and other demographic patterns; and for the first time compiled the "life table" to analyze the mortality rate and the life expectancy of the population, which aroused widespread attention.

(2) The Development of Statistics

The period from the end of the 18th century to the end of the 19th century was a period of development of statistics. In this period, the academic views of various schools of thought have been formed, and two major schools of thought have been formed, namely, the school of mathematical statistics and the school of social statistics.

1, mathematical statistics

In the 18th century, due to the growing maturity of the theory of probability, laid the foundation for the development of statistics. 19th century, the introduction of the theory of probability into statistics and the formation of mathematical and physical school. Its founder is the Belgian Adolphe Kettler (1796-1874), whose main works include: "On Humanity", "Probability Theory Briefs", "Social Institutions" and "Social Physics", etc. He advocated the study of natural sciences and the development of statistics. He advocated the study of social phenomena by the study of natural sciences, and formally introduced classical probability theory into statistics, which brought statistics into a new stage of development. He introduced the theory of probability into statistics, making statistics based on the "arithmetic" method established by "political arithmetic", and promoting the precision of statistics.

2, the school of social statistics

Social statistics school emerged in the second half of the 19th century, the founder of the German economist, statistician K?nig (1821-1889), the main representative of the main characters are Engel (1821- 1896), Meier (1841-1925) and others. -1925) and others. They fused the national school and political arithmetic school of thought, along the Kettler's "basic statistical theory" forward, but in the nature of the discipline that statistics is a social science, is the study of the causes of social phenomena change and the regularity of the substantive sciences, as opposed to the mathematical and physical statistics school of general method. The school of social statistics in the object of study that statistics is the study of the body rather than individual phenomena, and that due to the complexity of social phenomena and the totality of the overall must be a large number of observations and analysis, the study of its intrinsic links, in order to reveal the phenomenon of the inner law. This is the school of social statistics "substantive science" of the distinctive features.

The development of social economy requires statistics to provide more statistical methods; the social sciences themselves are also constantly developing towards segmentation and quantification, which also requires statistics to provide more effective methods of investigation and analysis of information. Therefore, the school of social statistics also increasingly emphasizes the study of methodology, and there is a tendency to transform from substantive methodology. However, the school of social statistics still emphasizes the importance of statistical research must be premised on the quality of things and the importance of recognizing the matter of substance, which with the school of mathematical statistics, measurement does not take into account the qualitative nature of the methodology is fundamentally different.

Second, the 20th century - the rapid development of statistics

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the rapid development of science and technology, society has changed dramatically, statistics has entered a period of rapid development. It is summarized in the following aspects.

1, from the description of statistics to the development of inferential statistics. Description of statistics is a large amount of data collected by processing and organizing, synthesis and generalization, through the chart, list and figures, the preparation of the distribution of the number of tables, drawing histograms, calculating a variety of characteristics of the number of data for analysis and description. Inferential statistics, on the other hand, are based on the collection and organization of observed sample data and make inferences about the overall situation. It is characterized by making inferences about unknown things in the form of probabilities based on the randomness of the observed sample data, as well as the conditions and assumptions (models) of the problem. The scientific statistical method in Western countries is mainly referred to as inferential statistics.

2, by social and economic statistics to the development of multiple sub-disciplines. Before the 20th century, the field of statistics is mainly demographic statistics, vital statistics, social statistics and economic statistics. With the development of society, economy and science and technology, the scope of statistics has covered the field of social life and become a universal methodological science. It is widely used to study all aspects of society and nature, and has developed into a science with many subdisciplines.

3. The development of statistical forecasting and decision-making science. The traditional statistics are the statistics of what has happened and is happening, provide statistics and data. since the 1930s, especially since the Second World War, due to the objective needs of the economy, society, military and other aspects of the science of statistical forecasting and statistical decision-making has been further developed.

4, information theory, cybernetics, systems theory and statistics of mutual penetration and combination, so that the further development of statistical science and increasingly perfect. Information theory, cybernetics, systems theory in many of the basic concepts, basic ideas, basic methods and other aspects of the **** the same place, the three from different perspectives, the side of the solution to the **** the same problem of the methods and principles. The creation and development of the three theories have changed the scientific picture of the world and the way of thinking of scientists, and have led to a new development trend in statistical science and statistical work.

5, computing technology and a series of new technologies, new methods in the field of statistics continue to be developed and applied. Accompanied by the continuous development of computer technology, so that the statistical data collection, processing, analysis, storage, transmission, printing and other processes are increasingly modernized to improve the effectiveness of statistical work. The development of computer technology has increasingly expanded the application fields of traditional and advanced statistical techniques, prompting revolutionary changes in statistical science and statistical work. Today, computer science has become an integral part of statistical science. With the development of science and technology, the depth and breadth of statistical theory and practice are also constantly developing.

6. Statistics is increasingly important in modern management and social life. British statistician Haslett said, "The application of statistical methods in life and habits is so common that the role of statistics should be emphasized." Later, even some science has also called the "statistical era".

4. The current situation of statistics

With the rapid development of science and technology, through the absorption and integration of new theories of related disciplines, the development and application of new technologies and new methods, deepening and enriching the theory and methodology of the traditional field of statistics, statistics to expand a new field. In the country, the gradual establishment of the socialist market economy system and the needs of practical development have put forward new and more requirements for statistics. With the growth and continuous improvement of the socialist market economy, the potential functions of statistics will be further explored.

First, the realization of systematicity and system complexity adds new ideas to the future development of statistics. With the rise of the trend of scientific convergence, the research tentacles of statistics have been extended to new areas, and the study of statistical methods for exploratory data has begun. The field of research to the expansion of complex objective phenomena. 21st century statistics research focus will be shifted from deterministic phenomena and random phenomena to the study of complex phenomena, to the fuzzy phenomena, mutation phenomena and chaotic phenomena and other fields.

Secondly, the synthesis and integration of qualitative and quantitative methods will provide new ideas for the development of statistical analysis. The comprehensive integration method combining qualitative and quantitative was proposed by Prof. Qian Xuesen in 1990. The essence of this method is to combine scientific theories, empirical knowledge and expert judgment, put forward empirical hypotheses, then test its certainty with empirical data and information as well as models, and finally form conclusions after quantitative calculations and repeated comparisons.

Thirdly, the penetration of statistical science with other sciences will open up new fields for the application of statistics. The emergence of fuzzy theory, mutation theory and other new fringe disciplines provides new scientific methods and ideas for the further development of statistics. Introducing some cutting-edge scientific results into statistics, so that statistics and its interactive development will become the trend of statistics development. Some scholars have already begun to introduce cybernetics, information theory, system theory, as well as graph theory, chaos theory, fuzzy theory and other methods and theories into statistics.

Statistics arises from the application, and develops and grows in the process of application. With the development of economic and social development, the development of the trend of mutual integration of various disciplines and the rapid development of computer technology, the field of application of statistics, statistical theory and analysis methods will also continue to develop.