Geopolitical Analysis: Why Pakistan cannot live without China and Pakistan?

First of all, let's understand Pakistan's national conditions: this Islamic country is located at the northwest end of the South Asian subcontinent; The land area is about 880,000 square kilometers; The population is nearly 200 million. Geographically, the Indus River originates from the Karakorum Mountains and runs through the country from north to south. This is the river of life that sustains Pakistan's lifeline. The river flows through the alluvial plain, which provides natural basic conditions for the development of industry and agriculture, and forms the core main plate of Pakistan on this basis;

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the roof of the Northeast World, has blocked the communication between the Indus Valley and even the South Asian subcontinent and East Asia. The Hindu Kush Mountains in the northwest and Baluchistan Plateau in the west are the geographical dividing lines between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. To the east, a thar desert with a total area of 600,000 square kilometers spans between the Indus River Basin and the Ganges River Basin, the largest plate in South Asia. As for the south, it is the vast Indian Ocean.

From this point of view, Pakistan has a good geographical structure and can be called a place of four blockades. But it also has serious harm: the Indus Valley, where it was founded, was suppressed by the Ganges Valley.

In fact, in the subcontinent, the Indus River and the Ganges River Basin have always been equally famous, both of which are dual-core plates of the subcontinent, but if compared, the Ganges River Basin has two geographical advantages over the Indus River Basin:

First, the plate is huge and the regional strength is stronger. The Ganges River is 2500 kilometers long, and the Indus River is only 1300 kilometers long. In terms of basin area, the two rivers are similar; Only the Indus Valley lacks rainfall; There is abundant precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Ganges River. In view of the fact that fresh water is the basic condition for industrial and agricultural development, the Ganges River basin has greater potential.

Second, within the South Asian subcontinent, the Ganges River is in the center of the plate and the Indus River basin is in the northwest corner. In other words, the Ganges Plain is more suitable as the geographical core of the South Asian subcontinent. Compared with the Indus River, the Ganges Plain is not only stronger, but also can control the nearby Deccan Plateau, Bangladesh and other plates by virtue of its location advantages, but the Indus River basin is too remote to do this.

Because of this, although Indian civilization originated in the Indus Valley, with the passage of time, the core area of this ancient civilization moved to the Ganges Plain, and India and the Valley became marginal plates instead.

According to common sense, whether the center of Indian civilization is Ganges or Indus, it belongs to the subcontinent. Therefore, on the whole, this geopolitical game and core migration will not develop to the point of causing civilization division-for example, the core area of ancient China moved from the Yellow River basin to the Yangtze River basin, but they are still part of Chinese civilization.

But the South Asian subcontinent is different. Because while the core of civilization was moving, the Indus and Ganges plates parted ways in the civilization system-India and Pakistan were formed politically. In the civilization system, the Indus plate, the birthplace of Indian civilization, was finally absorbed by Islam.

This is all because of the influence of the Central Asia Plate on the Indus Valley.

Compared with Karakorum Mountain and Tibet, the geographical barrier effect of Moby Dick Plateau and Hindu Kush Mountain Range is weak. Therefore, there are frequent exchanges between Central Asia and South Asia. Since the 7th century, Islamic civilization began to move eastward, absorbing nomadic peoples in Central Asia. After the integration of Central Asia, Islam, attached to the nomadic armed forces of the Turkic system in Central Asia, gradually crossed the Hindu Kush Mountains and invaded the South Asian subcontinent.

At that time, the comprehensive strength of Islamic civilization was far above that of Indian civilization; However, Indian civilization lacks political cohesion and is at a disadvantage in front of the Central Asian Turkic forces in the Islamic system, and many traditional spheres of influence have been absorbed by Islam. The Sultanate of Delhi and the famous Mughal Empire in Indian history were both established by Turkic Islamic forces that entered South Asia.

However, although Islam is generally dominant, its main core area is located in the Middle East, and its influence in South Asia is also a spent force, which is not enough to completely replace Indian civilization. Nevertheless, Islamic civilization has been replaced in some sectors-the most famous ones are the Indus Valley and Bangladesh.

After coming in, Islamic civilization declined relatively, and Christian civilization represented by Britain began to rule India.

The British rule is a typical capitalist colonial rule, which aims at obtaining benefits and has little interest in the assimilation of civilization. In addition, Indian civilization is huge, and it is separated from Britain by Wan Li. In this case, Britain maintained its own rule, deliberately raised the minorities who believed in Islam and Sikh, and helped them suppress Hinduism, which further aggravated the contradiction between Indian religion and civilization.

British rule further aggravated the contradiction between religion and civilization in India. Bbs.miercn.com Mir Military Forum

After World War II, the empire collapsed and Britain withdrew from the South Asian subcontinent. In order to contain India, Britain took religion as the dividing standard, made the Indus Valley and Bangladesh, which believed in Islam, break away from India and established Pakistan.

This will definitely cause dissatisfaction in India. However, historical grievances, territorial disputes, conflicts between civilized systems, geopolitical contradictions between Ganges and Indus, especially India's determination to unify South Asia, led to a sharp deterioration in the contradiction between India and Pakistan, and the two countries soon broke out in war.

Of course, Pakistan can't be India's opponent. Several wars between India and Pakistan ended in Pakistan's failure; Especially in the third India-Pakistan war, East Pakistan was captured by India and became an independent Bangladesh.

Pakistan's anger can be imagined when the country was dismembered. But obviously, the geographical strength of the Indus Valley alone is not enough for Pakistan to resist India. Therefore, introducing external forces has become an inevitable choice for Pakistan.

In the past, both Islam and Britain played this external role. But now Islamic civilization is no longer brilliant; Moreover, Britain has also withdrawn from South Asia, so Pakistan is pinning its hopes on the United States at this time.

The United States is not only the strongest in the world, but also the strongest hegemon in the Indian Ocean plate. Most importantly, there is a natural conflict between the dominant position of the United States in the Indian Ocean and India's strategic concept of leading the Indian Ocean.

For the United States, supporting Pakistan can not only contain India, but also contain the Soviet Union (India is a natural friend of the Soviet Union, because India has structural conflicts of interest with China and the United States in Tibet and the Indian Ocean respectively), which is in line with the interests of the United States under the cold war pattern.

But even so, Pakistan has not been guaranteed as expected. In several wars between India and Pakistan, the United States did not give much support to Pakistan.

Why is the United States so stingy with Pakistan? This is closely related to the global geopolitical pattern.

Both the United States and the Soviet Union are located in the northern part of the northern hemisphere, and the main battlefields of their geopolitical games are in Europe and East Asia. The oceans are mainly in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and even the Arctic Ocean. The Indian Ocean plate is not bordered by the United States and the Soviet Union, and it is on the edge of the Cold War, so the allocation of resources by the United States here is relatively limited. And this limited power, the United States has to be mainly used to control the Middle East.

For the United States, it is not enough to strongly support Pakistan, and it will also aggravate the conflict with India. India is the strongest local power in the Indian Ocean, which will seriously affect the interests of the United States in the Indian Ocean and even the Middle East. Therefore, in order to avoid angering India, the United States is unwilling to help Pakistan too much.

Since the United States is unreliable, Pakistan can only count on China.

Under the condition of industrial civilization, the ability of human beings to conquer nature has been greatly enhanced, and the altitude of the Tibet Plateau is not enough to completely separate East Asia from South Asia-that is to say, China-Pakistan cooperation has the possibility of geographical relations; At the same time, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the roof of the world after all. Even with the development of science and technology, its barrier function still exists to a considerable extent. In other words, China and Pakistan have communication channels, but these channels are relatively narrow, which naturally determines that China can't attack Pakistani territory like India-which is why Pakistan dares to cooperate with China with confidence.