It is urgent to analyze the development of China automobile market in recent years and its future prospect!

Analysis on the Prospect of China Automobile Industry in 2008

In 2007, the automobile market in China was in good condition. After experiencing the downturn in 2005, the automobile market developed steadily with good momentum: high-end passenger cars and urban SUVs will maintain a high growth rate; The commercial bus industry will continue to grow steadily; The overall growth rate of the commercial vehicle industry will fall, and the opportunity lies in product upgrading and export.

In 2008, the automobile industry will be influenced by many factors, such as energy-saving and environmental protection policies, fuel tax collection, integration of domestic and foreign taxes, and new energy development in the era of high oil prices. All auto sub-sectors will face new opportunities and challenges.

By analyzing the profit growth rate, historical market performance, development trend of gross sales margin and the proportion of projects under construction of listed companies in the automobile industry, investors are advised to pay attention to three types of vehicle stocks: value-oriented, growth-oriented and low valuation.

The vigorous development of automobile industry has brought great development opportunities to the leading industries of automobile parts. Leading auto parts sub-sectors will maintain high growth rate and high gross profit margin. We advise investors to pay attention to the leading companies of high-quality auto parts.

The formation of new consumer groups and the trend of consumption upgrading are obviously a good background for the stable growth of passenger car market. The high operation of GDP and fixed assets investment and the construction of new countryside are the guarantee for the stable development of commercial vehicles. The demographic dividend, the vigorous development of tourism and the expansion of high-speed kilometers are the driving forces for the sustained growth of business buses. In the automobile industry, there are both passenger cars as optional consumer goods and commercial vehicles with the property of means of production. Every sub-industry is facing the growth stage of opportunities and challenges, which also brings great development opportunities to leading enterprises of auto parts. The leading enterprises of auto parts in the middle and upper reaches of the automobile industry chain will usher in a period of rapid growth. We try to review the past, look forward to the future, and discover and tap the investment value of the automobile industry.

1.Review and Analysis of Automobile Industry Sales in 2007

At present, the per capita car ownership in China is about 3 cars per 100 people. According to the usual international automobile popularization stage, China is generally in the "initial stage of motorization". However, due to the prominent dual structure of urban and rural areas in China, the development level between cities and regions is very different. The number of cars in first-tier cities is close to 20 per 100 people, and car consumption has entered a "motorization stage". It is expected that most cities in China will be at this stage for a long time.

As of June 2007 10, China's automobile sales reached 7150,000 vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 24%. Among them, the sales of passenger cars were 5,079,400, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 23.57%, and the sales of commercial vehicles were 2.07 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25. 14%. First of all, look at the short-term trend reflected by the sales volume of each sub-model.

The passenger car market in China has entered the annual sales mark of one million vehicles since 2002, and has grown rapidly in the past five years. It is expected that the sales volume will reach 6 million vehicles by the end of 2007. In view of the great differences in economic levels among regions in China, the development engines of the automobile industry are mainly the replacement needs of old users and the first car purchase needs of new users.

Users with replacement needs are not sensitive to price and fuel cost, but pay more attention to the maturity and performance of the brand. Therefore, this part of the demand may be for medium and high-end displacement passenger cars; First-time car buyers are under 30 years old. These users pursue fashion and dynamic, and are expected to become the main consumer groups of urban SUVs and mid-range cars.

The competition of passenger car brands is fierce. At present, there are about 340 passenger car brands in China, and the average annual sales of each brand is 1.7 million. The negative growth of passenger car brands reached 45% this year. It should be said that the passenger car market is characterized by too many small-scale enterprises and mixed brands, which is also related to the consumption characteristics of passenger cars in China.

In the subdivision products of commercial vehicles, the trend of "weighting" is obvious, and the growth rate of heavy trucks, large passenger cars and high-tonnage semi-trailers is obviously higher than other subdivision commercial vehicles. Among commercial vehicles, the periodicity of trucks is relatively strong, and the overall growth rate of the bus industry is stable, and the sales volume is almost maintained at around 20% per year.

China's fuel tax has gone through three governments in ten years since it was put forward. Under the national environmental protection policy of energy conservation and emission reduction, the fuel tax is imminent and is likely to be levied in March 2008. Relevant experts predict that the fuel tax rate may be between 30% and 50%. After taxation, the cost of each car will increase. Take a car with a displacement of 1.6L as an example, and assume that the fuel consumption is 8L per 100 kilometers a year. If the 93 # gasoline is 5.34 yuan/liter, plus other taxes and fees, the annual oil consumption is 6.5438+0.28 million yuan, and the fuel tax rate is 50%, the cost will increase by 6,000 yuan. Compared with the displacement 1.0L, the annual fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is 5L, running 30,000 kilometers, the annual fuel consumption is 8,000 yuan, and 50% fuel tax is paid.

On the other hand, 1.0L displacement vehicles increase the fuel tax by 6% of the vehicle price every year, while 1.6L displacement vehicles are slightly more than 4%. The exact influence of fuel tax on the consumption structure of passenger car market is related to the fuel tax rate and fuel tax collection structure. If the fuel tax is 30%, the impact is very small. If it is 50%- 100%, it may have a great impact on the consumption structure of passenger cars. Some consumers who originally planned to buy a small-displacement car may give up or buy a car temporarily.

Historically, the rise in oil prices has not affected the growth rate of automobile sales. On the one hand, the annual increase in oil prices has not exceeded 25%. On the other hand, the per capita car ownership in China is low, and the market potential is huge. The cost of rising oil prices will not affect the total sales of passenger cars in the short term.

2. Emission policy

In 2007, the third national emission standard will be implemented, and in 20 10, China will fully implement the fourth national emission standard. The upgrading of environmental emission standards has an impact on small-displacement vehicles and some old models. Beijing is about to implement the national four standards, and some brands may have to withdraw from the Beijing market. For the old products of established joint ventures, the pressure of upgrading is increasing. Generally speaking, the impact on passenger cars is earlier than that on commercial vehicles, and it is expected that the impact on the commercial vehicle market will be limited next year.

3. The combination of the two taxes is beneficial to some automobile enterprises.

After the implementation of the national income tax law, the income tax rate of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises is unified at 25%. Debt interest income, dividends and bonus income in qualified resident enterprises are also defined as "tax-free income"; Cancel the taxable wage system implemented by domestic-funded enterprises, and deduct the real and reasonable wage expenses of enterprises according to the facts. Enterprises that have already enjoyed tax incentives have a certain transition period, during which they will gradually reach 25%. After the integration of the two taxes, the income tax rate of joint ventures will increase from 15% to 25%, while the income tax rate of domestic automobile enterprises will decrease from 33% to 25%.

As far as sub-sectors are concerned, the main listed companies in the automobile industry are joint ventures. The merger of the two taxes will have a certain negative impact on the profits of joint ventures that enjoy preferential policies for a long time, but it will not affect the long-term competitiveness of enterprises. Commercial vehicle enterprises are mostly domestic-funded enterprises and will benefit from the implementation of the merger of the two taxes. As far as car companies are concerned, the merger of the two taxes will be beneficial to commercial vehicle listed companies that pay 33% income tax rate, such as China National Heavy Duty Truck (00095 1), Yutong Bus (600066) and Shuguang Co., Ltd., and the national tax policy will be conducive to creating a level playing field for the automobile industry. It is believed that under the background that the state encourages independent innovation, the living environment of independent brand automobile enterprises will be greatly improved in the future.

4. New energy brings new opportunities for the development of China automobile industry.

In the era of high oil prices, the driving force of automobiles will inevitably develop in the direction of replacing traditional energy sources. The introduction of fuel tax and high oil price gave birth to the upsurge of new energy vehicles. This year, China announced the "Management Rules for Access to New Energy Vehicles", and major automobile manufacturers have made moves in the research and development of new energy vehicles. The strict entry threshold announced by the National Development and Reform Commission and the one-vote veto system are intended to concentrate the R&D investment of new energy vehicles in the hands of powerful automobile enterprises, so as to realize the large-scale commercialization of new energy vehicles as soon as possible. From the perspective of European and American markets, basically the industry believes that at least in the next five years, the mainstream of new energy vehicles will be hybrid vehicles.

Shanghai Automobile has launched the Roewe hybrid vehicle and the "Shanghai" brand fourth-generation fuel cell vehicle independently developed. According to the planning of Shanghai Automotive, the company will put into production its own brand hybrid vehicles in small batches before the Olympic Games, and at the same time promote the research and development of joint-venture brand hybrid vehicles and buses, so as to realize the large-scale production of hybrid vehicles in 20 10. In addition, Dongfeng Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. has developed hybrid buses, FAW Group has completed the development of Jiefang brand hybrid buses, FAW Hongta has exported a small number of electric vehicles, Changan Group's hybrid MPV is planned to be listed in 2008, and Changan Group plans to develop its new energy vehicles along the track of mild to moderate to heavy hybrid vehicles.

Hybrid electric vehicle is a long-term transition from traditional power to pure new energy. China automobile industry is expected to take this opportunity to shorten the gap with European and American markets. In two or three years, it is difficult to industrialize hybrid vehicles on a large scale, but the car companies that are currently at the forefront will definitely take the lead when the global new energy vehicle era comes.

Third, look forward to the development of automobile industry in 2008.

As a sub-industry of automobile industry, passenger cars have incomparable market potential compared with passenger cars and trucks. In the field of cars, we believe that the sales of high-end brands are stable, the competition in the mid-end market is fierce, and the models with fashionable appearance and good power will be favored by a new generation of car consumers. It will take some time for the spring of low-end economical cars to come.

The improved leisure SUV will continue to maintain a high growth momentum, and oil prices, taxes and other factors have limited impact on SUV. According to the data of mature automobile market, the market share of SUV in China will continue to expand. With the release of automobile demand and the gradual increase of automobile purchasing power in second-and third-tier cities, SUV will have new growth points.

MPV cars are used for both domestic and commercial purposes, which blurs the characteristic boundaries of them as optional consumer goods and production tools. The growth rate of MPV this year will exceed the average growth rate of passenger car industry, and we think its potential is slightly lower than that of SUV market. At present, some automobile companies have invested in MMPV projects, and it is believed that MMPV, which is more suitable for families, will occupy a part of the domestic passenger car market. Teach you how to shake money under a cash cow

Commercial vehicles will benefit from the growth rate of China's GDP 10% or more in the next few years, the rapid growth of fixed investment, the further expansion of the scope of charging by weight, the increase in the demand for transport trucks between villages and towns caused by the development of new countryside, and the gradual opening of the export market of leading enterprises. The overall growth rate of commercial vehicles will be around 65,438+00%. Due to the "blowout" of heavy truck industry this year, the overall sales growth rate next year will be less than this year's growth rate. The sales structure of heavy trucks will be further changed, and the proportion of heavy trucks with high horsepower and high tonnage will continue to increase. The export market of high-end trucks is expected to be further broadened. The two growth points of the truck industry in the future are high-tonnage energy-saving heavy trucks and exports.

The bus industry maintained steady growth throughout the year. China is a populous country, and the road passenger traffic is increasing year by year. The upgrading of tour buses has become one of the driving forces for the development of the bus industry. Like trucks, passenger cars, as a subdivision of commercial vehicles, are favored by foreign importers because of their high cost performance. At present, the main export destinations are the Middle East, Cuba and other places. There is still a big gap between China's automobile technology level and mature markets in Europe and America, and it is still difficult for developed countries to export buses. The development of automobile industry in developing countries is relatively backward, but the transportation demand is increasing, which is beneficial to the export of commercial vehicles in China. The bicycle price of export products is higher than that of domestic products, which is conducive to improving the comprehensive gross profit margin of enterprises.

Strong joint ventures, such as Shanghai Volkswagen, cover many brands, and the development momentum of independent brands is good. It is expected that they will continue to inject related assets in the future. It is estimated that the fully diluted earnings per share will reach 65,438+0 yuan in 2008. It is estimated that the share price may increase by 30%-40% compared with the closing price of 65,438+065,438+on October 27th, 2007. Teach you how to shake money under a cash cow

Yutong Bus (600066): The bus industry leader, the company specializes in large and medium-sized buses, with a good development momentum. Due to the company's self-made chassis, the product structure is high-end and the product gross profit margin is high. With the double promotion of domestic demand and export, it is expected to continue the good main income. Considering the financial equity held by the company, if the company sells cash next year, it will greatly improve the company's performance, but we do not consider this unsustainable factor in the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share will be 1. 17 yuan next year. Compared with the closing price of 2007 1 1.27, the company's share price may rise by 30%.

FAW Car (000800): the leader of mid-to high-end cars, which is expected to become the overall listing platform of FAW. Its product pedigree is relatively thin, but its profit is stable, and its gross profit margin is relatively high, basically maintaining above 22%. It is estimated that there will be four new and old cars on sale next year, and the valuation has been put in place from the company's performance. Considering the overall listing and asset injection in the future, it is recommended to hold it.

2. The growth of such auto stocks has the following characteristics: long operation time, many projects under construction at present, and the net amount of projects under construction accounts for a large proportion of the main business income. There may be a big turning point in the main business, and the company as a whole is in the transition period of restructuring the main business. At the same time, there are relatively more uncertainties in such listed companies, and there are relatively great risks in investing in such stocks.

Typical stocks are:

Changfeng motor (60099 1): pure SUV stock. Compared with the current150,000 vehicle production capacity of the group company (Changsha 50,000, Yongzhou100,000), the current sales volume of less than 50,000 is somewhat wasteful. As an old-fashioned off-road vehicle enterprise, the previous demand mainly relied on the public security law system of government departments. This year, the company's new Cheetah CS6 has independent intellectual property rights. In addition, the management of the company is prepared to improve the products, make them more humanized, and open up the ordinary consumer market with great potential. It is expected that three new cars will be developed and launched next year. In addition to off-road vehicles, they will also be involved in the car and light truck industries. In addition, the company will increase the construction of marketing network. At present, Changfeng is regarded as Mitsubishi's strongest partner in China. We expect that a new joint venture between the company and Mitsubishi will be established soon, and great efforts will be made in the new automobile business. It is estimated that the company's performance next year will be 0.94 yuan per share, which is about 90% higher than the closing price of 165438+20071October 27th.

Company risk warning: the management underestimated the difficulty of product transformation, and the lag of marketing network construction made the company's production capacity unable to be released, and there were many uncertain factors in entering the new automobile sub-industry.

Jianghuai Automobile (6004 18): The company has strong management and long-term vision. Jianghuai Automobile has experienced many successful transformations from bus chassis to MPV, light truck, heavy truck and off-road vehicle. At present, the company has expanded many projects, done a good job in basic skills, not pursued immediate interests, obviously focused on the long-term, steady and steady. In the future, the company will have MPV, SUV, car, light truck, medium and heavy truck and other products. After the successful transformation, passenger cars may reach the production capacity of more than 300,000 vehicles. In 2007, the company's product sales increased, but it was affected by the expansion of several projects, which reflected the negative growth of net profit. We are optimistic about the company's long-term development potential and expect to enter the harvest period in the second half of 2008. Forecast earnings per share in 2008, 0.4 yuan. Compared with the closing price of 165438+20071October 27th,1February may have 60%-70% upside.

Corporate risk warning: the process of entering the harvest period may be very long, because the project expansion is too large. The transformation to automobiles has yet to be tested in practice.

Changan Automobile (000625): The company holds 50% equity of Changan Ford Mazda, and owns several powerful brands such as Mazda 3, mazda 2 and Ford. It is estimated that 200,000 vehicles will be sold this year, the Chongqing plant will be expanded to 250,000 vehicles/year, and the Nanjing plant will be completed and put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 654.38+0.6 million vehicles in the first phase. Next year, the company will produce 400,000 vehicles, and the new products will be mazda 2, Focus Compact New Car Carnival and New Mondeo. It is estimated that 350,000 vehicles will be sold next year, so the company's earnings per share in 2008 are between 0.82 and 0.89 yuan. Compared with the closing price of 165438+20071October 27th, 12 months may increase by 45%-60%.

Company risk warning: Except Changan Ford Mazda, it will take time for the business to turn losses; Many sales networks of its brands need to be improved, and the sales growth space of Mazda series models is limited. Compared with the greatly expanded production capacity of the factory, there is sales pressure, and the production capacity cannot be equal to profit.

3. Although the performance of undervalued companies has no bright spot, the market gives them a low valuation level, which is worth buying on dips.

Typical stocks are:

Haima Co., Ltd. (000572): The model of the company is relatively stable, the product structure is low, and the upgrading of new products is slow. However, the company showed strong independent innovation ability after leaving Mazda, and the subsequent injection of assets such as related R&D centers was underestimated. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2008 will increase by about 60% in 0.7 yuan, 165438+20071October 27th.

Jiangling motors (000550): The company specializes in light vehicles and related parts. The gross profit margin of the company's products and the net profit margin of its main business are relatively high, the expenses during the period are controlled reasonably, and the growth rate of earnings per share is stable. Nearly 250 trading days behind the broader market, the market outlook is expected to return to reasonable value. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2008 is 0.95 yuan, which may increase by about 55% in 20071October 27th 165438+.

Shuguang shares (600303): The company is mainly engaged in Huanghai brand commercial vehicles and SUVs. It owns two brands, "Dawn" and "Yellow Sea", which benefited from the 2008 Olympic Games and set foot in the manufacture of medium and high-grade buses. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2008 is 0.65 yuan, which may increase by about 50% in 20071October 27th 165438+.

Five, pay attention to the leading stocks of auto parts with scale advantages.

In the development process of China automobile industry, auto parts enterprises grow rapidly, and the competitive environment may not be as fierce as that of the whole vehicle, and the outstanding auto parts enterprises have high gross profit margin. Through the comparison between auto parts industry and vehicle industry, it is found that the overall construction ratio of auto parts industry exceeds the overall level of vehicle by about 10 percentage point. We have no reason not to share the benefits brought by the vast growth space of the auto parts industry.

We focus on two major indicators: 1. It has a strong scale advantage; 2. Leading enterprises with monopoly advantages in sub-sectors. Based on our forecast of the company's future earnings, we recommend the following key auto parts stocks (note: the "current share price" mentioned below is 165438+20071closing price on October 28th):

Weichai Power (000338): the leader of heavy truck engines, with heavy truck gold industrial chain and excellent subsidiaries such as Wei Chai high-horsepower engine, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Fast Gear. The company has excellent performance and is now oversold. We predict that the earnings per share in 2007 and 2008 will be 3.2-3.8 yuan, and the dynamic P/E ratio based on the current share price is less than 20 times. In the next 12 months,

Fuyao Glass (600660) is the largest automobile glass manufacturer with the strongest technical advantages in China. It has a high market share in the automotive glass industry, and its market position is almost unparalleled. Its product structure leads to its comprehensive gross profit margin ranking first in the auto parts industry. We expect that the company will continue to maintain the momentum of substantial growth in its main business in the future. It is estimated that the earnings per share in 2007 and 2008 will be 0.9 and 1.2 yuan respectively, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 23 times. Considering the unique advantages of Fuyao Glass, it can be given a relatively high P/E ratio. We think that the stock price may rise by about 65% in the next 12 months.

Jinma shares (000980): The company is mainly engaged in auto parts, security doors and paper products. After the reorganization of assets, Zhejiang Tieniu Group has become the actual controller of the company, which is expected to form a synergistic effect and strengthen its main business. Pre-investment projects may put the company at a turning point in performance. We expect the earnings per share in 2007 and 2008 to be 0. 17 and 0.4 yuan respectively. Based on the current stock price, the dynamic P/E ratio is 2 1 times, and the stock price may rise by more than 50% in the next 12 months.

Xiangyang Bearing (000678): The company is the largest professional manufacturer of automobile bearings in China, with many product models and strong adaptability. Its bearings are expected to cover the commercial vehicle and passenger car markets, with expanded demand and greatly improved performance. We expect the company's earnings per share in 2007 and 2008 to be 0. 14 and 0.28 yuan respectively. Based on the current stock price, the dynamic P/E ratio is 23 times, and the stock price may rise by more than 30% in the next 12 months.

Feng Fan (600482): The company is a leading lead-acid battery manufacturer in China. The company's huge investment in battery projects is expected to form three growth drivers: automobile batteries, industrial batteries and lithium batteries. At present, the company's main business is automobile starting battery, and the future demand space is broad. New solar battery projects and industrial battery projects will form new growth points. It is predicted that during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the company's profits will maintain strong growth. It is estimated that the earnings per share of the company in 2007 and 2008 will be 0.55, 1. 15 yuan, and the current dynamic P/E ratio is 30.4 times, and the stock price may rise by more than 60% in the next 12 months.