Why weather forecasts are not accurate

Seven reasons why weather forecasts are not accurate

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Rationale #1: She's still young

While the ancients observed phenomena, looked for patterns, and already had a lot of experience in predicting the weather, modern science-based weather forecasting has only 100 years of history. More than 100 years of history, she is through a simple timed observation to derive the barometric pressure field, high and low pressure, cold and warm fronts, and a simple linear projection of such a rudimentary handmade workshop developed, and numerical forecasting as a representative of the simplified physical process of the weather changes in the solution and operation only a few decades of time. People have not yet fully grasped the intrinsic mechanisms and laws of the occurrence and evolution of many weather phenomena. Meteorological science is still the sun at seven or eight o'clock in the morning, and it is an extremely young discipline. Young people always make mistakes.

Rationale 2: There are countless butterfly wings

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) professor Lorenz used a kind of graphic analogy to express his discovery: a tiny butterfly stirring up its wings over Brazil may cause a storm in Texas, USA, a month later. This is the famous "butterfly effect" in chaos science, which is also one of the first chaotic phenomena discovered. In front of our eyes, there seem to be "countless butterfly wings" stirring. Not to mention the greenhouse effect caused by urban heat islands and industrial emissions, the intricate topography of the planet has a decisive influence on weather changes, and vegetation and water bodies are undergoing subtle changes that cannot be described in detail in simulations.

Of course, we don't condone inaccurate weather forecasts just because there are "a million butterflies on the wing," just as students don't lament difficult exam questions because they don't get perfect scores. Those who often use "chaos" to comfort themselves do not have the professional psychological qualities to forecast the weather.

Rationale 3: Our eyes have a blind spot

To predict the weather, we first need to observe it, and theoretically, we need to be observant, so we can't let go of any of the subtleties. And human beings themselves do not have clairvoyance, smooth ears, our eyes have a blind spot.

Since we have weather satellites, the blind spots in our eyes have been reduced and our vision has been broadened. The typhoon, no matter how cunning, will not be able to deceive the satellite's sharp eyes, the typhoon's spiral cloud type, the typhoon eye at a glance, we will also be able to release those typhoon warnings with a clear conscience. But no one is perfect, and neither are weather satellites. Geosynchronous meteorological satellites are watching the weather changes, but it is 36,000 kilometers away from the ground, which is relatively distant, and its ability to distinguish between them is relatively limited; the altitude of polar-orbiting meteorological satellites is more than 800 kilometers, which is closer to the Earth, but it is not possible to watch a specific area without turning away from it, and its cloud maps are spliced together, which is equivalent to the satellites having "blinking eyes" when they are watching a specific area. When observing a specific area, it is equivalent to the satellite having the problem of "blinking", and some weather happens in the "blink of an eye". In addition, if there is cloud cover, it is difficult to observe and measure the weather. Plastic (5) noisy mirror to get bitch? What are the reasons for this?

It is inevitable that we do not have a pair of discerning eyes that can see everything, and that we will make errors when analyzing and predicting.

Rationale 4: The sun rises in the east and rains in the west

People often use the phrase "the sun rises in the east and rains in the west" to describe localized differences in weather. In areas with complex terrain, or during seasons when severe convective weather, such as storms and hailstorms, is more prevalent, the weather can often be very different in a small area.

A large mountain, windward and leeward slopes, the temperature and precipitation are very different, and therefore the vegetation looks very different. Just a mountain away, but showing two types of climate, the old saying: the first realization of a ridge, the climate is different cold.

And our country is a vast country, both in the high latitude continental weather systems, but also low latitude oceanic weather systems, a wide variety of weather disasters, is the most varied types of weather hazards, the performance of one of the most intense countries. We use a minute or two to summarize the national weather, can only "from the big picture", describing the characteristics of a wide range, will certainly cut out many local specific weather phenomena, will miss a lot of weather episodes, it can not express the complexity of the weather changes.

Rationale 5: Misdiagnosis of Difficult Diseases

There are many types of diseases, and the difficulty of diagnosing and treating them varies. Even the most skillful doctor can misdiagnose a disease, and taking the pulse of the weather is often a difficult task.

I vividly remember one example: a typhoon had just been generated, and we issued a warning as it raced toward the southeast coast. But the typhoon bizarrely stopped advancing and rested in place where it was. But just as people were breathing a sigh of relief, the typhoon made a comeback and retargeted the southeast coast, so we issued the typhoon warning again, but when the warning was sounded, the typhoon swaggered towards the Pacific Ocean and left. In the end, the typhoon was a false alarm. Afterward, several colleagues concluded that the typhoon seemed to have come specifically to tease us.

Even in the case of a routine weather event, it is not uncommon for the forecast to fail to materialize (or, in the jargon, to fall through), or for the forecast to fail to materialize (or, in the jargon, to fall through). For a long time, in order to reduce the negative social impact, some people in the industry have a "rather empty than leakage" mentality. Without discussing the industry's forecasting mentality, I personally feel that it is precisely because many extremely difficult forecasts are wrongly reported, especially omissions, that people (including leaders) lack a fair evaluation of the errors, and that many counterparts engaged in forecasting often feel as if they are walking on thin ice, like birds of prey. One of my leaders has a saying: in 10,000 years, people will still be talking about the accuracy of weather forecasts. Weather forecasts will always be inaccurate. Let's hope that his statement is a warning to viewers 10,000 years from now as well. --The weather forecasting conundrum will be around for a long time. Figuring out God's temperament is a tough task indeed.

Rationale 6: Your Feelings Lie to You

In the spring of 2004, an intern said to me, "What are you going to do in the summer? This one comment puzzled me. He explained: everyone says that the hot season is obviously more than 40 degrees, but you guys always report 36 degrees, 37 degrees like, for fear of causing panic, so do not dare to report and do not want to report the high temperature.

Listening to this analysis, I really feel wronged ah!

In the summer of 2003, there was a prolonged, widespread high temperature in the south, and water and electricity shortages were so prominent that restrictions were imposed on nighttime lighting in Shanghai. In Fujian, Jiangxi and Zhejiang, the temperature in many areas was like a sports competition, with new highs being repeatedly set and major "furnaces" being set. So there are a lot of viewers reflecting the weather forecast deliberately low temperature results, concealment, and even rise to the "deprive the people of the right to know" political height.

But in fact, for the hot weather in the summer of 2003, the meteorological department precisely made a very wonderful, conclusive forecast, only the Central Weather Bureau issued an unprecedented 31 high-temperature forecasts and warnings, and for the temperature forecast error is generally in the range of one degree or even lower. But why is there such a sharp contrast between the excitement at the scientific level and the impression at the public level?

We traced the discrepancy between temperatures and people's physical sensations (body temperature) to the primary cause of complaints and questions.

By air temperature we mean the temperature in a louvered box, which is on a lawn, 1.5 meters above the ground, ventilated, and out of direct sunlight. But our body temperature is affected by many factors. The same temperature in the sun and in the shade can feel very different; windy and windless, very different; wet and dry, very different, and the difference in sensation will usually be more than 5 degrees. And in the hot sun baking, the ground temperature, far higher than the temperature, when the temperature is 35 degrees, the temperature of the surface land may be 50 degrees, the temperature of the concrete or asphalt road may be 70 to 80 degrees, so walking on the road when you feel the temperature is far more than 35 degrees, so the weather forecast skepticism arose.

In fact, in the history of weather forecasting, there has never been a case in which the forecast was subjectively and intentionally low during the summer season. If that were to happen, it would be completely despicable behavior that would hurt professional ethics and would be intolerable to ourselves!

Rationale 7: Lack of summaries of inaccuracies

I have read a lot of articles and summaries about how wonderful the forecasts are and how successful the analyses have been, but very few analyses and reviews of individual cases of forecast failures, and it seems that some people are reluctant to touch the scars and there is no professional atmosphere to honestly discuss the failures. Once an important error in forecasting occurs, the atmosphere will become so gloomy that they dare not mention it for fear of hurting anyone's feelings.

Beijing TV's weather forecast ends with a screen that shows the satisfaction rate of the weather forecast on a certain day of a certain month, with viewers scoring the results of each day's forecast. I read this information carefully every time, it is an important channel to understand the audience's attitude towards the quality of the forecast. Satisfaction rates are often very high, in the 90s or even 100 percent. But there are also times when the satisfaction rate is very low. For example, on June 14 and 15, 2004, Beijing was forecasted to have "light rain", but the heavens were not willing to cooperate, and on the 14th, there was a force 6 gale and a sandy day, and on the 15th, despite overcast skies and thick clouds, it didn't rain, and on the same day, I passed by a swimming pool. The staff there recognized me and said jokingly, "How dare you walk on the street when the weather forecast was so inaccurate for the past two days?" As a result, the satisfaction rate of the weather forecast for June 14 was only 43%. Of course, insiders know that it is very difficult to forecast on those days, but on June 16th, it seemed that God was finally touched by the persistent forecast, and it rained all day, but the forecast high temperature was 24 degrees Celsius, while the actual temperature in the afternoon was only 17 degrees Celsius, and the thinly-clothed people were freezing and shivering, and there were a lot of complaints, but the satisfaction rate of the forecast for June 15th to that for June 16th was 81.8%, which seems to be a very good result. Despite the outrageous temperature forecast, rain was finally predicted and people were still very generous.

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