With the intensive introduction of the "double carbon" policy, can the coal chemical industry still "eat enough and wear warm clothes"?

It has become the focus of "double control of energy consumption" and has a great impact on short-term operation.

The Opinions emphasize that China will continue to strengthen the dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount. The opinion puts forward that we should adhere to the energy development strategy of giving priority to energy conservation, strictly control energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission intensity, reasonably control the total energy consumption, and make overall plans to establish a total carbon dioxide emission control system.

From this point of view, China's policy of "dual control of energy consumption" will be adhered to for a long time. What coal chemical enterprises hope is that local governments should not adopt "one-size-fits-all" and "sports" carbon reduction behavior when implementing this policy, so that coal chemical enterprises can either transform and upgrade or withdraw in an orderly manner.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, some places have implemented "one size fits all" and "sports" carbon reduction actions, and the policy of "double control of energy consumption" has become increasingly strict, which has caused harm to coal chemical enterprises. For example, a large coal chemical company has been affected by the dual regulation policies of the local government many times this year. In March this year, the local government asked the company to significantly reduce the daily electricity consumption. After the power outage, the company could not meet the minimum load power demand, and was forced to stop production according to government requirements after communication failure. Three other enterprises around this enterprise also suffered the same fate and were forced to stop production one after another. At the beginning of September this year, it was asked to stop production on the grounds that the energy consumption index was used up. So on and off, the benefits were not good, and now it is even worse.

On August 12 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "Barometer on the Completion of Double Control Targets of Energy Consumption in Different Regions in the First Half of 2002/KLOC-0", which showed that the energy intensity of nine provinces (regions) such as Qinghai, Ningxia and Guangxi rose instead of falling in the first half of this year, and was listed as a red first-level warning; Eight provinces (autonomous regions), including Guangdong, Fujian and Yunnan, have been listed as the first-class red warning in terms of total energy consumption control. Affected by this, since the third quarter, the above-mentioned provinces and regions that sounded the red first-level warning have thundered to limit the "two high" industries. Because the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season of energy consumption, those provinces (regions) that have achieved the goal of double control of energy consumption in the first half of the year dare not take it lightly, and have also begun to increase the control of industries listed in the "two highs" list. For a time, almost all coal chemical projects were restricted, the current situation of the industry was gloomy, and the confidence in the development of the industry was frustrated again.

The "one-size-fits-all" and "sports-style" carbon reduction methods in various places have seriously restricted the survival and development of the coal chemical industry, and brought great negative impacts on the business operation and normal economic development. The most direct impact is that some places restrict the supply of coal and reduce the power supply to coal chemical enterprises, which brings great trouble to normal coal chemical enterprises, causing many enterprises to stop production or semi-stop production, and the whole modern coal chemical industry is facing a life-and-death exam.

Being included in the "two high projects" has no long-term development prospects.

The Opinions emphasize that the blind development of projects with high energy consumption and high emissions should be resolutely curbed. The production capacity control policies for coal, electric power, petrochemical and coal chemical industries were introduced. If it is not included in the industrial planning of the relevant fields of the state, it is not allowed to build, rebuild or expand oil refining and build new projects for producing olefins from ethylene, p-xylene and coal. Reasonably control the capacity scale of coal-to-oil gas. Improve the energy consumption access standards for high-energy and high-emission projects.

It is not difficult to see that the Opinions listed coal chemical industry as "two high-tech projects", and directly named coal to olefins and coal to oil to gas. The State Council also explicitly requested in the "Program" to resolutely curb the blind development of the "two high" projects. Take effective measures to implement inventory management, classified disposal and dynamic monitoring of the "two high" projects.

In China's coal chemical industry, traditional coal chemical industry has long been listed as two high-tech projects, which restricts its development. For example, from 20021,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will no longer approve coke (blue carbon), calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride, synthetic ammonia (urea), methanol, ethylene glycol and other "two high" projects; Guangdong Province has included coal chemical and coking projects with an annual comprehensive energy consumption of more than 6,543,800 tons of standard coal into the "two highs" project management account; Shaanxi province has also introduced a series of specific measures such as limiting production of "two high" projects.

Modern coal chemical industry in China generally refers to four industrial paths: coal to olefin, coal to oil, coal to gas and coal to ethylene glycol. Among them, coal to olefin is the best way of modern coal chemical industry in recent years, with the fastest development. According to statistics, the total domestic coal-to-olefin production capacity will reach110.2 million tons/year in 2020, and the production capacity is still being further released. Especially in the first half of this year, affected by the skyrocketing market prices, many enterprises did make profits. However, this "star" project in the field of modern coal chemical industry, the Opinions stipulates that "no new construction, reconstruction or expansion" is allowed, which means that the "stock project" of coal-to-olefin can continue to operate, but no "incremental" projects can appear in the future. Therefore, the development prospect of coal-to-olefin industry is very clear, which can dispel the idea of trying to start coal-to-olefin production again.

The Opinions require "reasonable control of the capacity scale of coal-to-oil gas". In fact, the capacity of coal-to-oil gas in China is not large, with the capacity of 92 1 10,000 tons/year and 5 1 100 million cubic meters/year. Due to the high investment, poor economy and high risk of coal-to-liquid gas projects, the willingness of enterprises to develop is generally not strong. Some of them were previously approved.

Coal supply is "low in quantity and high in price", and enterprises are generally "not enough to eat"

The Opinions put forward that the pace of coal reduction should be accelerated, and the growth of coal consumption should be strictly controlled during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period and gradually reduced during the 10 th Five-Year Plan period. This shows that the "peak" of coal consumption in China will come in 2025.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the sudden shortage of coal supply, coal chemical enterprises have generally "not enough to eat". The "Opinions" have made many enterprises further realize that "small quantity and high price" of coal will become the key bottleneck restricting the development of coal chemical industry in the future.

Since the third quarter of this year, the crisis of "power cut" suddenly broke out in Yusheng, China, mainly due to the lack of coal.

China coal chemical industry has become the industry that consumes the most coal after coal-fired power generation, and is the second largest user of coal. According to statistics, China's total annual coal consumption is 4.08 billion tons, including 3.4 billion tons of power coal for power generation, accounting for 83% of the total coal consumption; The rest 17% is mainly coal for coal chemical industry, about 500 million tons or more.

In some coal-rich areas, because the development speed of coal chemical industry is much higher than the release speed of coal production capacity, the original sufficient coal production suddenly becomes tense. Take Mengdong area as an example. It is the main producing area of lignite in China, with abundant reserves. Coal used to be cheaper than white. In 2005, the local lignite price was only tens of yuan per ton, and now it exceeds that of 300 yuan. Due to the launch of several large-scale coal chemical projects and coal-fired power projects, the coal shortage in this area has lasted for many years. Both power generation projects and coal chemical projects are "half dead" because of lack of coal. Due to the lack of coal, many local coal chemical projects have a hard time because of the lack of coal, the production load is difficult to guarantee, and enterprises continue to lose money. However, coal-fired power projects cannot generate electricity normally due to lack of coal, and it is difficult for some pithead power plants to ensure coal demand. It is understood that this is by no means unique to Mengdong. For example, there are long queues of coal trucks in Yulin, Shenmu, Shaanxi and Erdos, Inner Mongolia, and the supply of coal in many coal-rich areas in China is in short supply.

Since the second half of this year, international crude oil prices have been rising all the way, and domestic bulk chemical commodities have remained high, which has greatly benefited coal chemical industry. Almost all coal chemical projects are profitable, and the operating rate of coal chemical industry supported by high oil prices has greatly increased. Therefore, coal chemical enterprises all over the country are striving to seize market opportunities. Therefore, the operating rate of coal chemical industry is much higher than in the past few years, and the demand for coal in coal chemical industry is more vigorous. It is estimated that the coal used in coal chemical industry may increase by 50 million tons in 202 1 year, with an average monthly increase of more than 4 million tons. It is predicted that if the oil price remains at a high level during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the coal consumption of coal chemical industry in 2025 will increase by about1.200 million tons compared with the end of 2020.

Recently, the state is stepping up its intervention in the coal market. 10 6 19, the national development and reform commission launched eight measures to alleviate the current energy crisis, such as vigorously releasing coal production capacity, steadily increasing coal production, and guiding coal prices back to a reasonable level. The coal shortage began to improve, and the "power cut" in various places improved. However, the phased measures of "treating the headache and treating the foot pain" cannot be achieved overnight. If the relevant departments ignore the rigid demand for coal in the coal chemical industry when considering the total coal control, the phenomenon of "insufficient quantity and high price" of coal will last for a long time.