High-quality industrial development: seeking change while maintaining stability

It is estimated that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will remain at around 6.2% in 20 18; In 20 19, the industrial production operation will still maintain a steady and progressive trend. It is estimated that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will remain in the range of 6.0%-6.3%.

Industrial operation has progressed steadily, and it has changed steadily.

At present, China's industrial operation is progressing steadily, but it has changed steadily. Some new situations and new features in the industrial field also put forward higher requirements for doing a good job in 20 19.

1. The trend of steady progress in industrial production continues. The stability of the basic plate and the positive progress made in structural adjustment are the "ballast stones" to ensure the smooth operation of the current economy.

From the growth rate of industrial production, the added value of industrial enterprises above 2018+1kloc-0/0 increased by 6.3% year-on-year. Judging from the historical data of industrial growth in the past five years, maintaining the growth rate of about 6% is a remarkable feature, which fully shows that China's industrial growth has strong resilience. Structurally, positive factors are accumulating. In the first three quarters of 20 18, the proportion of high-tech industries in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 13.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in1-August; The proportion of strategic emerging industries is 18.5%, which is 0. 1 percentage point higher than that of June-August. From the investment situation, industrial investment increased by 5.4% in the first three quarters of 20 18, of which manufacturing investment increased by 8.7%, which was 1.2 percentage points faster than that in June 5438+0-August. From the perspective of exports, the growth rate of industrial exports basically meets market expectations. In the first three quarters, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved export delivery value of 8,972.9 billion yuan, up by 8. 1% year-on-year, and export delivery value increased by 1 1.7% in September. In terms of profit, the overall industrial profit in the first three quarters maintained rapid growth, and positive progress was made in reducing the cost of enterprises in the real economy.

2018165438+10 industrial data fluctuated slightly. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point compared with June 20 10. The slowdown of industrial growth in June was 5438+065438+ 10, which was related to the slowdown of automobile, chemical and electronic industries. The fluctuation of monthly data is related to the fluctuation of commodity prices, the influence of product consumption policy adjustment and the downturn of downstream demand side. We should pay close attention to the fluctuation of short-term data, but we should also maintain strategic strength to avoid grasping and judging long-term trends because of the influence of short-term fluctuations.

2. There are four "changes" in the stability of industrial production, which has important reference value for comprehensively and accurately understanding the current industrial production situation.

We should attach great importance to the steady change of industrial production. To sum up, there are four "changes", which have important reference value for comprehensively and accurately understanding the current industrial production situation.

First, China is facing some changes in the international policy game environment. The adjustment of economic policies of big countries may have a certain impact on the global economic operation, and also have a certain "reverse" effect on the economic policies of other countries. For example, after the tax reform, American multinational companies repatriated a large number of retained earnings of overseas subsidiaries to the United States, resulting in a decrease of 465,438+0% in global foreign direct investment in the first half of 2065,438+08. At the same time, many people have changed the original "giving preferential treatment to specific industries" into "giving preferential policies to specific regions". In addition, the US government put forward the "Opportunity Regional Fund Project" in the Tax Reduction and Employment Act to guide investors to inject capital into low-income communities through preferential tax policies. In addition, the Indian government stipulates that enterprises investing in specific local areas can enjoy a certain number of years of corporate income tax relief.

Second, our understanding of our own industrialization is also changing. There are still some "stuck neck" problems in the industrial field, which shows that there is still a certain gap between China and the realization of high-level industrialization, and the task of rebuilding and reshaping the industrial base is more urgent.

Third, countries pay more attention to emerging industries and advanced technologies generated by interdisciplinary research. Improving the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry has become an important strategy of the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan, and relevant governments have also issued relevant bills to support it. From the blueprint of American manufacturing revitalization in 20 12 to the strategic plan of artificial intelligence research and development in 20 16, from the "Industry 4.0" strategy put forward by the German government in 20 13 to the "learning system" artificial intelligence platform initiated by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, these policies come down in one continuous line, which shows the key for countries to improve the core competitiveness of manufacturing.

Fourth, the impact of global economy and trade on some industries is also changing. In our investigation, we found that the impact of trade is mainly limited to some specific products, but with the passage of time, the impact on some industrial chains has begun to appear. For example, some multinational manufacturers delay further local investment and consider transferring part or all of their manufacturing activities to other places. Once this potential risk is transformed into a real problem, it will have a certain negative impact on suppliers and manufacturers in different links of the industrial chain.

Some problems faced by industrial production need to be solved urgently.

At present, there are still some problems in the field of industrial production in China, some of which are short-term and some reflect some medium-and long-term development trends.

1, short-term exports are still facing greater downward pressure.

At present, due to export preemption and other factors, the adverse impact of trade on China's exports has not been reflected in the current data. However, judging from the changes of some leading indicators, short-term exports still face greater downward pressure. For example, the new export order index of PMI was below 50% for five consecutive months, and the new export order index of 20 18 and 10 was 46.9%, down 1. 1 percentage point from last month.

2. The problem of weak demand still exists.

First, in June of 20 18, the PMI new order index was 50.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month; Second, the effective investment in manufacturing industry continues to decline, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in manufacturing industry after deducting price factors is negative, highlighting the problem of insufficient effective investment; Third, the year-on-year increase in the price of downstream terminal means of subsistence is much lower than that of the front-end raw material market, highlighting the problem of insufficient demand in the manufacturing terminal consumption field.

3. The rate of industrial added value is low.

China's manufacturing value-added accounts for the largest proportion of GDP in the world, but according to the data of China Institute of Engineering, the manufacturing value-added rate has been declining since 2002, reaching 265,438+0.48% in 2065,438+04, which is not only compared with the United States (37.67%), Japan (36.07%) and Germany (38.76%).

4. The ability of independent innovation is not strong.

There are few products with independent intellectual property rights, and the core technology is highly dependent on foreign countries. Most of the high-end equipment, core components and key materials needed for industrial development depend on imports. For example, the deficit of intellectual property royalties exceeded $20 billion, of which the royalties paid to the United States increased by 14% year-on-year.

5. The development of producer services lags behind.

First, the overall development level of producer services is not high. The data shows that the value-added rate of producer services in China is about 53.8% in 20 14, which is significantly lower than the level of 60% in developed countries. Second, the degree of marketization of producer services is low and it is difficult to form an effective supply. Third, the development of OEM not only failed to form an effective demand for productive services, but also competed with the service industry in the acquisition of factors.

Industrial production will still run stably in a reasonable range.

The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will maintain steady growth at 1 and 20 18.

We believe that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will remain at around 6.3% in 20 18 and around 6% in 20 19. This inference is mainly based on the following three reasons.

First, according to historical data, the results predicted by various regression models are basically around 6%-6.4%. Under the current market expectation and macro-fundamental background, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will not fluctuate greatly in 20 18 years, and the growth rate will basically remain at around 6.3%.

Second, from the perspective of supply and demand, we judge that the situation of oversupply will not change in the next 1-2 years, and the comparison of supply and demand forces directly determines that prices, profits and other indicators will not change in a short time. Therefore, the growth rate of industrial added value will remain stable in 20 19, and it is expected to be in the range of 6%-6.3%.

Third, from the perspective of policy reserves, we still have many policy tools to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment and expectations, which have a strong supporting role in maintaining the smooth operation of industry.

Fourth, the industry itself has a self-stabilizing function. This stability will not change in the short term because of the growth rate of different categories and the accelerated cultivation of new kinetic energy.

2. Pay attention to the potential impact of the four factors on China's industrial production and operation.

First of all, developed countries attach great importance to the design concept related to the development of manufacturing industry. The United States, Germany, Japan and Britain will also take promoting the development of manufacturing industry as a strategy, keep pace with the times and formulate relevant top-level designs. On 20 18- 10, the American science and technology commission issued the "Leadership Strategy of American Advanced Manufacturing Industry", emphasizing that it is urgent to develop innovative and profitable domestic manufacturing industry with resilient supply chain, which is very important for economic prosperity and security. Britain aims at manufacturing development in 2050. By analyzing the problems and challenges faced by manufacturing industry, it is pointed out that science and technology will change production, and technologies such as information and communication technology and new materials will play a key role in the future integration with products and production networks. 2065438+June 2008, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan issued a white paper on Japanese manufacturing industry, proposing to gain new added value through flexible use of digital technology.

Second, the consolidation and reconstruction of the value chain is the key for developed countries to control the strategic commanding heights. Among them, "consolidation" is reflected in attaching great importance to the development of producer services, which is the focus of global value chain and the breakthrough of international competition and industrial upgrading. Developed countries occupy the high-end link of the value chain by firmly grasping the advantages of producer services. The specific approach is to establish a producer service industry development promotion agency. For example, the relevant agencies of the Japanese government set up a special service industry research group to coordinate and solve major problems in the development of the service industry. In addition, "reconstruction" is mainly reflected in the redistribution of global production of multinational companies. Multinational companies are gradually shifting from the "center-periphery" offshore production layout centered on the home market to the offshore production layout centered on the host market, and this layout is shifting to the periphery of China.

Third, industrial transfer "step by step gradient promotion" and "multi-level parallel promotion" coexist. Traditional international industrial transfer is often from developed countries with high economic gradient to underdeveloped countries with low gradient, and the transfer trajectory basically follows "developed-developing". After the international financial crisis in 2008, some new features have emerged: First, developed countries, in addition to maintaining the original gradual gradient characteristics, intend to attract overseas high-end manufacturing links attached to China through policy guidance. For example, the French government will invest 200 million euros to provide prepaid reimbursement subsidies to enterprises interested in returning to France to encourage enterprises to return and promote domestic employment. Second, the comparative advantages of factor costs among developing countries are constantly changing, and some industries that originally flowed to developing countries will withdraw and then flow to other developing countries.

Fourth, global trade rules are being rebuilt. The reconstruction of global trade and investment order and rules may have a certain substitution effect on domestic trade and investment, or increase the pressure on China's foreign trade and attract international direct investment. For example, the trans-Pacific Free Trade Area (TPP), the world's largest, has a high threshold in service trade, intellectual property, labor and environmental protection, which may weaken the cost advantage of China's industrial export products.

Promote stable industrial growth.

Focus on eight aspects of work.

The key to the high-quality development of China's industrial production is to be self-reliant, actively respond to changes in the international economic situation, and strive to build a modern industrial system with global competitiveness.

1, planning the top design of industrial base

In accordance with the requirements of building a modern industrial system with coordinated development of real economy, scientific and technological innovation, modern finance and human resources, we will promote the high-quality development of the industry as a whole and fundamentally solve some "stuck neck" problems. Further complement the shortcomings of factors and strongly support the high-quality development of industry. Strengthen the connection between supply and demand of education and employment, strengthen vocational education and professional and technical personnel training, and strongly encourage enterprises to adopt school-enterprise cooperation and apprenticeship to train talents needed by enterprises. Strengthen the coordination between financial policies and industrial policies, and encourage financial institutions to launch financial products and services that are in line with the innovation and development of the real economy. Thoroughly remove the institutional and institutional obstacles that restrict the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and speed up the resolution of the "pain points" and "blocking points" that affect the role of the innovation incentive system. We must provide institutional guarantee for the formation of an innovative culture that tolerates failure and loss.

2. Properly handle global trade

It is suggested that 2-3 prefecture-level cities should be selected as observation points in provinces with a high proportion of foreign trade exports, so as to grasp the impact of tracking trade on employment, exports and industrial chain in time. Strive to break through a number of key core technologies and products as soon as possible, enhance the overall competitiveness of manufacturing industry with key breakthroughs, and firmly grasp the initiative of development. Further adjust industrial policies and treat all market players equally according to the principle of competition neutrality.

3. Do a good job in the construction of major projects.

Grasping the construction of major projects is very important for expanding domestic demand and strengthening the implementation of special plans. Most special plans have defined the project layout, and the construction of major projects within the plan should be regarded as an important task of current investment management. Innovate the organization and management of major projects, actively coordinate, actively promote and actively serve to ensure the project landing. Further strengthen the responsibility constraint, put an end to the arbitrariness of project construction and improve the seriousness of planning.

4. Accelerate the disposal of "zombie enterprises"

It is suggested that the quantitative standards of "zombie enterprises" should be clarified as soon as possible, and the disposal process should be accelerated according to the principle of marketization, supplemented by necessary administrative means. Taking the disposal of "zombie enterprises" as an important part of supervision and assessment. Set up special funds for the disposal of "zombie enterprises" to focus on the resettlement and re-employment of employees.

5. Effectively stabilize the expectations of market participants.

Explore the feasibility of continuing to reduce the manufacturing value-added tax rate by continuously reducing the cost stability expectation of enterprises. By promoting a number of major reform measures to boost market confidence, we will continue to relax market access for manufacturing industries and accelerate the implementation of policies. It is necessary to introduce a number of immediate policy measures around six aspects: reducing the tax burden of enterprises, solving the problems of financing difficulties and high costs of private enterprises, creating a level playing field, improving the policy implementation model, building a pro-fresh political and business relationship, and protecting the personal and property safety of entrepreneurs.

6, improve the evaluation and incentive mechanism of scientific and technological personnel.

Promote the distribution of income from scientific research achievements, equity incentives, property rights disposal, etc., so that scientific and technological personnel can get reasonable remuneration for their intellectual work. Give scientific and technological personnel greater scientific research autonomy, human and financial control and technical route decision-making power. Support the scientific and technological personnel in the system to leave their jobs without pay and start businesses, support the scientific and technological personnel to work part-time and pay according to law, and ensure the implementation of relevant policies.

7. Accelerate the development of producer services.

Promote producer services to extend to the high end of the value chain, focus on weak links to accelerate development, aim at international standards to improve the level, vigorously develop industries such as industrial design, and deepen the application of information technology in producer services.

8. Strengthen post-event supervision.

Deepen the reform of the commercial system, formulate and publish the catalogue of pre-approval items for market management in a timely manner, so that there is no approval outside the catalogue. Strictly implement environmental protection, safety, energy consumption and other standards, severely punish intellectual property infringement such as trademarks and patents, severely crack down on counterfeiting and selling fakes, and strengthen verification, information collection, information publicity and joint punishment of untrustworthy enterprises. Strengthen the supervision of the rule of law after the event, promote resources such as people and property to the grassroots, and strengthen the capacity building of grassroots law enforcement.

(Article Source: shanghai securities news)