Geopolitical investigation of Russia and Central Asia

I geopolitical survey of oil and gas in eastern Europe

Energy geopolitics in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union is very important. This is because the oil and gas resources in this area are very rich. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union accounted for more than 15% of the world's oil resources, and the remaining proven recoverable reserves in 2000 were 8.05 billion tons. The exploitable natural gas resources in this area account for 32% of the world total. In 2000, the world's remaining proven recoverable reserves accounted for 38% of the world's remaining proven recoverable reserves, which was 56.66 trillion cubic meters.

After the disintegration of the former Soviet Union until 2000, the Russian economy was in a slump. But overlooking the world map, it is not difficult to find that Russia has a very favorable geopolitics in the world economic and political structure. Russia spans Eurasia, with a maximum length of 9,000 kilometers from east to west and a maximum width of 4,000 kilometers from north to south. The neighboring countries are Norway and Finland in the northwest, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Belarus in the west, Ukraine in the southwest, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the south and China, Mongolia and North Korea in the southeast. It faces Japan and America across the sea. The coastline is 33,807 kilometers long and the territorial sea is wide 12 nautical mile. Russia's vast plain area is not only located in the center of Eurasia, but also has a geographical location that meets the needs of both sides: Asia and the Pacific in the east, Central Asia and West Asia in the south, the Arctic Ocean in the north, other economically developed areas in Europe in the west, and the Black Sea as the sea mouth. This geographical position can develop extensive economic and trade relations with the Asia-Pacific region, strengthen communication and mutual understanding, and export energy resources to the Asia-Pacific region with rapid economic development; Secondly, we can strengthen ties with developed countries in Europe, get financial and technical support from developed countries, and develop our own economy; Third, it can serve as a link between the economically developed areas in continental Europe and the rapidly developing areas in the Asia-Pacific region.

Rich resources are also a means for Russia to defend its national independence, win its status as a great power and develop its economic strength, and a tool for balancing various influences and safeguarding its political and economic sovereignty in international competition. Eastern Europe is rich in resources, especially strategic resources such as oil and gas, which determines that it is destined to occupy a prominent position in the global competition around various strategic resources. Since 2000, Russia has played an important role in the international oil and gas trade market. Conversely, Russian resources are also a focus in the international energy pattern and geopolitical strategies of various countries. From the perspective of oil and gas geopolitics, Russia is located in the "heart of oil and gas" and can win the initiative in the global strategic pattern. Because of its rich energy resources, Russia has naturally improved its strategic position in the competition of big countries.

Second, an overview of oil and gas geopolitics in Central Asia

The geographical position of Central Asia is very important, which lies between the three polar centers of Eurasia (EU, Russian Federation and China). Whoever controls this "bridge" will occupy a favorable position in Eurasia. In addition, the special geological structure also makes Central Asia rich in resources, most of which have not been developed, especially the oil and natural gas near the Caspian Sea, which is one of the most promising areas for energy development in the world.

The proven natural gas reserves in Central Asia reach 7.9 trillion cubic meters, ranking third in the world after Russia and the Middle East. It is predicted that Kazakhstan's oil reserves will reach 654.38+0.3 billion tons and natural gas will reach 6 trillion cubic meters. Turkmenistan has 6.3 billion tons of oil and 15.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Uzbekistan has 300 million tons and 2 trillion cubic meters respectively. Experts from the "Kazakhstan Caspian Continental Shelf" international consortium believe that it is entirely possible for Kazakhstan's oil production to increase by 4-6 times in a few years. The government of Kazakhstan plans to increase the oil production to 654.38+billion tons by the beginning of the 20th century, and to 654.38+70 billion tons by 2065.438+00 ~ 2065.438+05, making it the sixth largest oil producer in the world. Turkmenistan's annual natural gas output is 60 billion to 80 billion cubic meters, ranking fourth in the world at its peak; Two thirds of oil and gas can be exported. In the future, Kazakhstan will be able to export 654.38 billion tons of crude oil and 654.38 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. Turkmenistan's natural gas export can also reach 654.38+00 billion cubic meters/year, and Uzbekistan's export can reach 20 billion cubic meters/year (Sun Zhuangzhi, 2006.5438+0).

At present, the geostrategic position of Central Asia depends largely on its rich resources. The great potential of these resources and raw materials development determines that Central Asian countries will occupy a special position in the current and future international political and economic structure. Central Asia is rich in strategic and human resources. Only when these resources are developed and enter the international market can they show real value. The treasures of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and raw materials such as oil and natural gas are the material basis for these Central Asian countries to get rid of the economic crisis and become economic powers.

Therefore, Central Asian countries attach great importance to the development and export of these minerals and raw materials and regard them as the first step towards the world. Turkmenistan, one of the five Central Asian countries, first proposed to become the "Kuwait" of Central Asia, and then other Central Asian countries played the "resource" brand one after another to sell resource products to major economic partners, which quickly attracted the attention of many countries, especially those with relatively rapid economic development. "Central Asia fever" began to appear in some countries and regions, and the competition for control and transportation rights of mineral resources in Central Asia became increasingly fierce. Official and unofficial economic organizations and large enterprises from abroad either "fight alone" or form an international consortium to "fight together". As one of the most promising suppliers of energy and other industrial and agricultural raw materials in 2 1 century, Central Asia has attracted much attention.

Rich resources are a means for Central Asian countries to defend their national independence, a tool to balance various influences and safeguard political and economic sovereignty in the struggle for great powers, but it is also one of the sources of contradictions and turmoil in the region. The development and competition of resources are closely related to geographical factors and international political factors. The rich resource potential of Central Asia, especially strategic resources such as oil and gas, determines that it is destined to occupy a more prominent position in the global competition around various strategic resources. Conversely, the resources of Central Asia are also a focus in the regional international pattern and the geopolitical strategies of various countries. Some experts believe that 2 1 century is an energy century. As far as big countries are concerned, whoever has strategic resources will be in a favorable position in the fierce international competition. Because of its rich energy resources, Central Asia has naturally improved its strategic position in the competition of big countries.

In the process of trying to become a "link" and a "bridge" again, the five Central Asian countries found that the advantages in the past have turned into disadvantages today, and they are in a very backward state in foreign transportation. The export of raw materials such as energy in Central Asian countries, due to historical reasons, can only use Russian ports or pipelines, and is more controlled by Russia, which is at a disadvantage. To this end, the five Central Asian countries attach great importance to the development of external transportation, actively cooperate with other countries and international organizations, and have made great progress. However, from the perspective of improving the international status of Central Asian countries and fully embodying their geographical importance, becoming a "transit station" of the new Eurasian continental bridge has more strategic value. Therefore, Central Asian countries pay more attention to transportation cooperation with China and the European Union.

Central Asian countries are also supporters and participants of the EU trans-Eurasian "Transport Corridor" plan. As China and Europe are both economically active regions, which are closely linked with the international market and have great potential, Central Asia attaches more importance to its role in connecting the east and west ends of Eurasia. Central Asian countries seek the hub position on the "Continental Bridge", in addition to the objective needs of economic development, there are also political and security considerations, which are closely related to consolidating their independence and safeguarding their own security, and also to improve their position in the international economic cycle. The modern Silk Road is of great significance to the five Central Asian countries.

Central Asia has become a new "transportation corridor", which is also the objective need of international economic development. This new continental bridge has great economic value and important strategic significance: first, the geographical position of the new continental bridge is superior, and Lianyungang, the starting point in the east of China, is an all-season ice-free port, which can be operated all year round; Secondly, the new continental bridge has economic benefits. The transportation distance of the new continental bridge is only 10000km, which is at least 1286km shorter than that of the old continental bridge and at most 3545km shorter. The transportation cost is also reduced accordingly; Third, the conditions of the new land bridge are good, the quality of domestic routes is good, and there are many ports connected. The "transport corridor" project invested by the European Union enables the continental bridge to play its role more fully; Finally, the new continental bridge also has extraordinary political significance. Because of bypassing Russia, European countries, especially eastern European countries, including Turkey, have increased their sense of security and their status in international exchanges has also improved accordingly.