Soybean meal stagnated, egg prices and pig prices "rebounded", and wheat jumped to a new height. What happened?

Introduction 165438+ 10 opened in October. In the domestic agricultural product market, the prices of various agricultural products changed again at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, involving the prices of soybean meal, pigs and eggs. In the grain market, the price of wheat is relatively stable, and the quotations of mainstream milling enterprises remain high. However, according to the auction news, in some areas, temporary storage of wheat has reached a new height! So, what is the latest change in the market? Today we will elaborate one by one!

First, the soybean meal market

The domestic soybean meal market is "depressed" recently. Judging from the latest quotation, the quotation of oil plants in mainstream areas in China fluctuated at a high level. Among them, in the southeast coastal areas, the delivery price of soybean meal in Dongguan Oil Factory was 5570 yuan/ton, which was significantly lower than before. At the end of 10, the price quoted by Dongguan Oil Factory is generally 5640~5700 yuan/ton. In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of soybean meal in mainstream oil plants hovers at 5440~5450 yuan/ton!

According to the mechanism analysis, in the 43rd week of the year (1October 22-28, domestic11oil plant), the soybean crushing scale was maintained at16.77 million tons, the machine operating rate was 58.3%, and the soybean inventory was maintained at 239.2.

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, the prices of international bulk agricultural products continue to rise, and the cost of domestic imported soybeans has risen sharply. From September to 10, the scale of imported soybeans was reduced, and the entry of soybeans into Hong Kong was limited, which also caused insufficient inventory in domestic mainstream oil plants, low machine operating rate and tight supply of soybean meal in the market!

In terms of demand performance, due to the substantial increase in the profits of pig breeding and egg breeding, the acceptance of high-priced soybean meal by feed enterprises has become stronger, and there is still demand for stocking in the downstream market. Under the "weak supply and strong demand" in the soybean meal market, the price will also remain high. Shocking performance!

However, in June165438+1October, with the gradual increase of soybean imports by traders, after the middle and late June165438+1October, the soybean stocks in oil plants have been increasing, and the soybean meal production capacity has been recovering, and the market will gradually decline!

Second, the pig market.

In the domestic pig market, the pig price stopped falling and the market showed a downward trend. In June 1 65438+1October1,the single-day pig price rose by 0.55 yuan/kg, and the domestic average pig price rose by 26.03 yuan/kg again. The market performance is strong. In the domestic north and south markets, the quotation of slaughter enterprises in many places rose 1 ~.

This round of pig prices rose and rebounded, and the market changed from "big drop" to "big rise". The fundamental reason is the obvious change of market sentiment. Previously, due to the accelerated slaughter pace of group pig enterprises, under the influence of official control policies, retail pig farms and secondary fattening were in a state of high panic, and the market pig price dropped sharply! However, with the north and south markets, the center of gravity of pig prices has dropped significantly, and the slaughter price of pigs in many places in the north has fallen below 25 yuan/kg, and the willingness to hold prices in the market has strengthened, so retail pig farms are reluctant to sell!

However, staged secondary fattening once again makes retail pig farms enthusiastic. The slaughter plan of domestic mainstream pig enterprises has been gradually completed, and the phenomenon of slaughter control has been countered. The number of suitable new pigs slaughtered in China has been significantly reduced, the planning time of slaughterhouses has been delayed, the difficulty of collecting pigs has suddenly increased, and the phenomenon of premium slaughter by group pig enterprises has increased, which has also supported this round of pig price increase!

In the short term, due to long-short adjustment, market sentiment changes dramatically, and pig prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. However, with the skyrocketing market, the expectations of the breeding end for the pig price will drop, and the price will be recognized or will rebound again. Before mid-June, pig prices will still have a basis for shocks and declines!

Third, the egg market

In the domestic egg market, at the end of 10, the price of eggs showed a trend of ups and downs, and there was a certain "acrophobia" in the consumer market. However, due to the disadvantage of insufficient domestic egg production capacity, the problem of masks in North and South China is becoming more and more serious, and there is a demand for centralized replenishment in the downstream market. Logistics transportation in many places has become more difficult, market bullish sentiment has rebounded, traders' enthusiasm for receiving goods at high prices has increased, and the domestic production and marketing market, egg prices have strengthened against the trend!

According to institutional analysis, at present, the average wholesale price of eggs in Shandong market has risen to 6.02 yuan/kg, while the price of eggs in eastern Shandong and Peninsula has risen to 6~6.25 yuan/kg, while the price of eggs in southern Shandong and central Shandong is around 5.9~6 yuan/kg! In Hebei market, the delivery price of farm eggs generally rose to 5.89 yuan/kg, and the increase remained at 0.2 1 yuan/kg! In the retail market, the arrival price of eggs in Beijing wholesale market rose to 6.42 yuan/kg, an increase of about 0.28 yuan/kg. The average price of eggs in Guangdong retail market is 6. 15 yuan, and the price increases by 0.2 yuan/kg!

It can be seen that in the domestic production and marketing market and mainstream areas, the price of eggs has rebounded. On the one hand, due to the mask problem, the demand side is gradually accelerating. However, due to the difficulty of logistics and transportation, it is more difficult for traders to get goods, and the phenomenon of price increases; On the other hand, the newly opened domestic production capacity is insufficient, and laying hens are at a low level during the year. Especially in July, the weather is hot, and farmers are in a bad mood to take the initiative to supplement chickens, and the number of newly opened laying hens is small. However, due to the rising price of meat products, farmers eliminated more old chickens, further limiting the staged production capacity. In short supply, feed costs have risen sharply, and farmers are in high spirits!

Therefore, based on the above analysis, domestic egg prices have risen against the trend. However, as the weather turns cold, the laying efficiency may be improved, and the sales area has certain resistance to high-priced eggs. Although the mask problem has improved in many places, the price of eggs may have a basis for correction!

Fourth, the new height of wheat seedlings!

Recently, in the domestic wheat market, the quotations of mainstream flour enterprises are stable, and the price remains at 1.6~ 1.64 yuan/kg! On the one hand, the weather turns cold, and the demand for flour in the downstream market increases; On the other hand, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level is gradually decreasing, the bullish sentiment of traders is high, the grain source of mainstream milling enterprises is general, the wait-and-see sentiment of factories is getting stronger, and the market wheat price remains high and volatile!

However, according to the latest market news, wheat prices have ushered in two good news. On the one hand, temporary storage of wheat has reached a new height. Auction 1600 tons of Henan-made 20 17 aged grain in Lhasa, Tibet, with a reserve price of 3240 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price reached 38 10~3900 yuan/ton! Wheat sold to a new height, with a premium of 3900 yuan/ton. Personally, the supply of local wheat in Tibet is difficult, and with the problems of superposition and masks, the logistics difficulty has increased sharply. Therefore, the price is super-rational, although it has some support for the mainland market sentiment, but it has little impact! On the other hand, internationally, due to the continuous fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia suspended the supervision of transporting agricultural products through the Black Sea port, which had a great impact on international food prices and supported the bullish sentiment in the domestic market!

However, in the short term, the trend of domestic wheat prices will still be determined according to market performance, and prices will continue to run sideways at a high level. Although the prices of some milling enterprises have declined, the problem of masks has delayed the market circulation due to the decrease of surplus grain in the market. It is expected that wheat prices will still be dominated by strong fluctuations!

Soybean meal stagnated, egg prices and pig prices "rebounded", and wheat jumped to a new height. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!