Synthetic rubber industry chain basis

1. Introduction to Synthetic Rubber

1.1 Concept of Synthetic Rubber

Synthetic rubber, also known as synthetic elastomers, is a synthetic highly elastic polymer, one of the three major synthetic materials. Its production is only lower than synthetic resins (or plastics), synthetic fibers.

The upstream raw materials of synthetic rubber mainly include: butadiene, butene, MBS, styrene, acrylonitrile, isobutene, isoprene, rubber oil, rubber auxiliaries and so on. Midstream finished products mainly include general-purpose synthetic rubber, special synthetic rubber and elastic material body three categories. Downstream demand is mainly concentrated in tires, shoes, rubber hose, plastic modification and waterproofing rolls, modified bitumen, gloves, foaming, medical materials and automotive parts and other fields. It should be noted that the following Figure 1 shows the three major types of synthetic rubber inside the synthetic rubber varieties are not listed completely, only to pick some of the varieties to show.

The understanding of synthetic rubber is as follows: First, synthetic rubber is different from natural rubber, a broader category of varieties, which includes a variety of different synthetic rubber, raw materials mainly from the crude oil chain, while the main raw materials of natural rubber from the rubber tree secretion of glue. Secondly, the association of synthetic rubber and natural rubber is mainly in the downstream tires and products in the field of part of the demand for substitution, especially the proportion of substitution of tire demand for synthetic rubber inside the sub-species (SBR and SBR) stage price fluctuations have a greater impact.

This article will focus on the classification of synthetic rubber products in the midstream of the general synthetic rubber under the branch varieties: the parabutadiene rubber, the varieties will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange futures varieties (synthetic rubber) of the underlying items. The cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber abbreviation BR, its raw material is mainly butadiene, butadiene as a monomer, the use of different catalytic systems (nickel, rare earth, lithium and cobalt) and polymerization methods (solution method, emulsion method and the method of the body) synthesized by the structure of the regular synthetic rubber. Compared with natural rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber, vulcanized male-butadiene rubber is particularly excellent in cold resistance, abrasion resistance and elasticity, less heat under dynamic load, better aging resistance, and easy to use with natural rubber, chloroprene rubber or nitrile rubber.

1.2 Classification and related indicators of cis-1,4 cis-butadiene rubber

According to the different cis-1,4 content, cis-butadiene rubber can be divided into low cis-cis-cis-butadiene rubber (cis-1,4 content of 35-40%), medium cis-cis-cis-butadiene rubber (cis-1,4 content of 90%), and high cis-cis-cis-butadiene rubber (cis-1,4 content of 96%). -99%).

By different catalysts, the polymerization can be divided into: nickel, cobalt, lithium, neodymium and titanium.

1.3 Production process

Shunt rubber upstream raw material is mainly butadiene, butadiene production process is mainly divided into oil and coal. Coal process is mainly through the MTO plant and MTBE plant to extract C4 and then oxidized dehydrogenation of butadiene.

The process mainly consists of: catalyst configuration - polymerization - monomer recovery - coalescence - dehydration and drying, the production process of butadiene rubber requires five categories of raw and auxiliary materials, including butadiene monomer (purity ≥ 99%), solvents, initiators, terminators (purity of 95% of ethanol) and antioxidants.

2, capacity and production

2.1 capacity and distribution of belonging

According to Lonzong information statistics, the national production capacity of 1,642,000 tons of polybutadiene rubber as of now. Domestic production capacity is mainly divided into Sinopec, PetroChina and others, accounting for 35.93%, 24.97% and 39.10% respectively. Among them, the capacity of GaoShunShunButadieneRubber occupies the dominant position. 2016-2020, China's parabutadiene rubber production capacity shows the change of first increase and then decrease. 2017 only 40,000 tons/year Liaoning ShengYou device put into operation, and is in the state of long term parking, its capacity can not be effectively utilized. After three consecutive years of stable production capacity, in 2020 two sets of long-stopping cis-butadiene rubber plant to exit the industry, respectively, 60,000 tons / year Baling Petrochemical as well as 50,000 tons / year Fu Rubber Chemical.

2.2 Production and Distribution

China's production of SBR is mainly distributed in North China, East China, Northeast China, Southwest China, South China, Northwest China. 2021 China's production of SBR is 1.05 million tons, of which the high SBR production occupies a major part. Historical production data, following the changes in production capacity, after 2018, the domestic production of parabutyl rubber is basically stable at about 1 million tons. The upstream utilization rate basically fluctuates between 60-75%. 2020 in the domestic part of the capacity to clear, the production still maintains high, mainly due to the second half of the domestic export rebound caused by the 2021 is in the upstream of the high production profit driven by the production continues to be high.

2.3 Import and export

1) Import

With the gradual increase in domestic production capacity, in recent years, the domestic parabutyl rubber imports have declined year by year, which also means that the domestic production of self-sufficiency rate is gradually increased. 2021 domestic parabutyl rubber imports were 187,900 tons, the import source countries mainly include from South Korea, Japan, Singapore, China Taiwan and other places. Among them, the total amount of imported goods from South Korea is the most, accounting for 26.71% of the total domestic imports; followed by Japan, accounting for 18.11% of the total domestic imports, ranked third is Singapore, accounting for 6.71% of the total domestic imports. 28,500 tons of cumulative imports of domestic parabutyl rubber in 2022 January-July.

2) Export

Domestic exports of SBR are lower compared to imports, domestic exports of SBR were 90,900 tons in 2021, of which, Thailand is the largest exporter of SBR in China, with an export volume of 35,700 tons, accounting for 39.27% of the total domestic exports; Vietnam is the second largest exporting country of SBR, the export volume of 28,100 tons, accounting for 30.88% of the total domestic exports.

2022 January-July cumulative domestic exports of 83,800 tons of SBR, exports rebounded significantly. This year in the export source countries, June change is more obvious is India. According to domestic customs statistics, in June 2022 China exported to India's parabutyl rubber volume of 0.29 million tons, exports increased by 953.4% sequentially. Although the absolute volume is not large, the export volume accounted for an increase of nearly 10 times. There are two main reasons for this phenomenon, one is India's domestic production capacity of only 120,000 tons of SBR, the required sources of goods are still partially dependent on imports, and its import trading partners are mainly South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc. 2022 June South Korea exported to India's SBR volume slipped by about 30% from the previous year; and the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine led to the change of India's main import trading partner sources of goods, giving China's export opportunities for SBR. Secondly, the depreciation of the RMB and the rise of export profits make traders more active in arbitrage to bring about an increase in export volume.

2.4 Downstream demand: tire demand dominates

Sunbutadiene rubber downstream mainly concentrated in tires and other rubber products, because the product category involves a wide range, therefore, the downstream demand for sunbutadiene rubber and the domestic economy is closely related to the specific can be subdivided into the following four major areas listed in Figure 9. Among them, the largest proportion of tire demand is mainly related to the domestic automotive policy, as well as real estate, infrastructure. With the domestic heavy truck "National six" emission standards in July 2021 implementation led to the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 domestic heavy truck sales ushered in the peak, but also overdrawn in advance of the late demand, coupled with the drag of the domestic economic downturn, 2022 heavy truck sales hit a new low in recent years. Because of the first half of overseas demand is relatively strong, the domestic shoe export boom is higher, but with the slowdown in overseas demand in the later stage, the domestic shoe exports also have downside concerns.

2.5 Trade flows

China's production of SBR is mainly distributed in North China, East China, Northeast China, Southwest China, South China, Northwest China. And the sales area is mainly concentrated in North China, East China and South China. Therefore, the domestic trade flow is mainly from Northeast, Southwest and Northwest to North China, South China and East China. The international trade flow of SBR is mainly from Russia, the United States, Japan and South Korea and other major producing countries to China, Southeast Asia, Europe and South America. Because of the geographical advantage, Japan and South Korea's most of the SBR basically covers the import demand of China and Southeast Asia, while Russia and the United States of America's SBR Ze mainly flows to South America and European countries.

2.6 upstream raw materials: butadiene

Tracing back the historical price of butadiene and SBR, the price of butadiene during the period 2015-2019 and the price of SBR fit above 95%, and 2020 to date due to the domestic butadiene production capacity of the rebound as well as the global disruption of the new crown epidemic led to upstream and downstream Raw materials and finished products import and export pattern of different impact on the short-term supply of different, bring the price of butadiene rubber and butadiene price fit declined to 65%, but still can be seen, the upstream raw material prices for the greater impact on the price of smoothbutadiene rubber.