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February 13 news, today, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") released June 2020 1 the development of the national automobile industry. In June 2020, the automobile industry in China produced1783,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%. Automobile sales reached 65,438+0,946,5438+0,000 vehicles, down 65,438+08% year-on-year.

New energy vehicles, which maintained contrarian growth in June 2065438+09, were affected by factors such as subsidy recession, Spring Festival holiday and COVID-19 epidemic this year, and their sales in June 2020 dropped significantly. From June 5438 to October 2020 10, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 40,000, down 55.4% year-on-year; The sales volume was 44,000 vehicles, down 54.4% year-on-year.

▲ Production and sales of new energy vehicles in China from June 20438 to 2020 10.

However, according to the China Automobile Association, the decline in the production and sales of the national automobile market in June this year was mainly due to the fact that the Spring Festival holiday was distributed in June 5,438+10, and the effective working day in June 5,438+10 was only 17 days, five days less than last year, so both production and sales declined.

However, the epidemic in COVID-19 began to have an impact after the Spring Festival holiday on June 20th, 65438. It has little impact on the key indicator of the automobile industry, 438+0, in June, but it will cause a sharp decline in the number of automobile production and sales in February and the following months.

China Automobile Association pointed out: "In the past 20 19 years, China's automobile market continued to decline, the economic effect declined, and the automobile industry entered a period of deep adjustment. In 2020, the original adjustment period will come to an end and the overall market will tend to be stable. However, the "Black Swan" epidemic in COVID-19 has hit the automobile industry, and the whole vehicle and parts industry has been greatly affected. The butterfly effect of the epidemic will appear, or it will affect the future global automobile market pattern. "

According to the monitoring of more than 300 automobile production bases 183 production bases in China, 59 production bases have resumed production at present, and the rate of returning to work is about 32.2%. Recently, china automobile dealers association also announced that the comprehensive return to work rate of 4S stores under 60 dealer groups is only 8.4%.

This paper sorts out the key data of China automobile industry in June 2020 released by China Automobile Association today, the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the industry and the current recovery situation of the industry. The following are dry goods:

1.65438+ 10 China automobile sales decreased year on year 18%? It is difficult to judge the annual sales situation.

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association today, in 2020, China's automobile production17.83 million vehicles decreased by 24.6% year-on-year and 33.5% quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume was 194 1 10,000 vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter.

Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.444 million and1.61.400 million respectively, down by 27.6% and 20.2% year-on-year and 33.9% and 27 1% quarter-on-quarter.

The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 34 1 10,000 and 326,000 respectively, down 7.8% and 5.7% year-on-year and 3 1.4% and 26.7% quarter-on-quarter.

5438+ 10/6 The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 40,000 and 44,000 respectively, down by 55.4% and 54.4% respectively.

Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to be 35,000 and 39,000, down 56.3% and 54.5% respectively; The production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles are expected to reach 5,000 vehicles, down by 37.4% and 5 1.7% respectively.

According to the China Automobile Association, the COVID-19 epidemic was not the main reason for the year-on-year decline in automobile production and sales in May 438+10 this year. The real impact is that this year's Spring Festival holiday is concentrated in 65438+ 10, and the effective working day of the whole 65438+ 10 is only 17 days, which is 5 days less than usual. The shortening of the construction period, the decline of production capacity and the weakening of market demand caused by the early arrival of the Spring Festival are the reasons for the overall decline of automobile production and sales in 5438+ 10 this year.

However, the China Automobile Association stressed that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the automobile market in China this year should not be ignored. It turns out that at the end of 20 19, the downward trend of automobile production and sales in China has narrowed, and the adjustment period of automobile industry is coming to an end. In 2020, it will enter the recovery stage of China automobile industry.

However, in a short time, the COVID-19 epidemic has had a great impact on the automobile and parts industry in China. Although the epidemic is short-term, the negative impact of the epidemic on the automobile market throughout the year may be enormous. In particular, the automobile production and sales in February, March and even April may be affected by the epidemic, leading to a decline in production and sales.

In the interview session after the meeting, Che Dongxi asked questions about the forecast of automobile production and sales in 2020 and the recovery of the automobile industry.

▲ Xu Haidong, Deputy Chief Engineer of China Automobile Association

Xu Haidong said that in view of the current recovery of China's automobile industry, 59 of the 183 vehicle production bases that have reported the resumption plan to the China Automobile Association have started to resume work before February of 12, accounting for 32.2%.

However, china automobile dealers association released data a few days ago. As of February 12, among the 60 dealer groups surveyed by the association, the comprehensive rate of returning to work was only 8.4%.

Regarding the forecast of automobile production and sales this year, and when the automobile industry can return to the pre-epidemic level, Xu Haidong said: "At present, the epidemic has not yet ushered in an obvious turning point. It is difficult to judge the time when the automobile industry production will return to the pre-epidemic situation. Correspondingly, the annual sales volume can't give an accurate figure now. "

2. Weilai electric SUV sales in June 1600? Take a pure electric SUV pin?

In the monthly data of automobile industry released by China Automobile Association, the sales ranking of electric vehicle market is usually not included. A few days ago, China Automotive Technology and Research Center announced the insurance amount of domestic electric SUV in June this year, 5438+ 10. Through this data, we can also see the performance of various players in the context of the decline in sales of new energy vehicles.

It should be pointed out that although the production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by more than 50% year-on-year, the head enterprises of new energy vehicles still maintained good performance.

▲ The monthly insurance data of domestic electric SUVs in 5438+ 10 released by China Automotive Technology and Research Center.

According to the data released by China Automotive Research Institute, the overall insurance coverage of Weilai Automobile reached1.600 in June. Among them, Weilai ES6 insured 1483 vehicles and won the monthly sales champion in the field of pure electric SUV.

Xpeng Motors has also made some achievements from the frequent car webcasts at the end of last year. In June this year, 5438+ 10, Tucki G3 sold 1073 vehicles, second only to Weilai ES6 in the field of pure electric SUVs.

Nezha N0 1 and BYD Yuan EV sold 1025 and 9 12 respectively in June this year, ranking third and fourth in the electric SUV market segment, with tepid sales. Especially Yuan EV, compared with last year's monthly sales of thousands of vehicles, this year's sales of 65438+ 10 is really insufficient, and BYD's advantages in the field of electric SUVs are almost completely lost.

Weimar, which has been keeping pace with Weilai and Tucki before, is known as "the top three new cars", and its sales performance in June this year was not good enough, with only 808 cars sold, ranking fifth in the segmentation field.

It is also worth mentioning that Tesla Model? X and Audi e-tron, two pure electric SUVs with a price of more than 500,000 yuan, are also on the list, which also shows that domestic consumers' acceptance of luxury brand electric SUVs is on the rise.

However, it should be noted that in February, when the epidemic was raging, and in March and April, when the epidemic may still exist, the new energy automobile sector faced sales pressure as much as the traditional automobile industry. In particular, the new car-making forces in the new energy car enterprises, because of the small scale, poor anti-risk ability, the cold winter of big environmental capital, and the production and marketing problems brought about by the epidemic, are very critical to spend this winter.

Third, winter intensifies? The epidemic will have five major impacts on the automobile industry.

At the beginning of 2020, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic spread rapidly, which had a great impact on the macroeconomic situation in China, and the automobile industry was very dependent on macroeconomic development. Under this epidemic situation, China automobile industry is facing severe challenges.

The supply chain problems, market problems and financial pressure of small and medium-sized spare parts enterprises caused by the epidemic have made the downward pressure on the automobile industry worse.

Especially in Hubei Province, where the epidemic situation is serious, the annual output of automobiles accounts for 8%-9% of the national output, and it is an important automobile industry town in China. The serious epidemic situation in Hubei Province has also brought challenges to the recovery of China automobile industry from the adjustment period.

In addition, Guangdong and Zhejiang, where the epidemic situation is serious, are also major automobile industry provinces in China, and the production and sales of complete vehicles and parts will be greatly affected.

Among the more than 300 automobile and parts enterprises currently investigated by China Automobile Association, 183 have reported the details of the epidemic enterprises. According to these circumstances, the China Automobile Association summarized the five major impacts that the epidemic may have on the automobile industry in China:

▲ China Automobile Association summarizes the five major impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on the automobile industry

1, the demand for car purchase and consumption power decreased significantly in the short term.

After the outbreak, the whole society actively mobilized to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and individual self-isolation, and the epidemic was controlled in a short time.

However, this has greatly reduced consumers' short-term car purchase behavior and seriously affected car sales. It is expected that after the first-level response to the COVID-19 epidemic is lifted, consumers' self-isolation will also affect automobile sales for a period of time.

At the same time, the epidemic has directly affected the economic benefits of enterprises in transportation, ghost, tourism, shopping malls, film and television industries, and the income of employees has been affected, and their spending power has declined.

It should also be noted that since 20 18, low-and middle-income people have been hit by multiple shocks, and the epidemic has reappeared when the consumption power of the bottom has recovered, which makes the income situation of this group worse, further weakens the consumption power and further reduces the overall consumption demand of automobiles in the short term.

2. The production progress of the enterprise is blocked.

Affected by the epidemic, all parts of the country have issued notices to delay the resumption of work.

According to the survey of more than 300 automobile and parts enterprises conducted by China Automobile Association, the delay in resuming work delayed the commencement date of these enterprises by 7- 1 1 day on average, especially in Hubei.

Most areas also require employees to observe at home after returning to work, further delaying the time of returning to work. This also affects the production and sales of vehicle and parts enterprises in the automobile industry, resulting in a certain proportion of front-line production personnel gap, leading to the risk of insufficient supply in the supply chain of the automobile industry.

In addition, some enterprises are short of protective materials, which makes it difficult to support the demand for enterprises to resume production.

Many provinces, cities, regions and township highways have also introduced strict inspection restrictions and high-speed inspections, which have affected the transportation of complete vehicles and parts. This phenomenon is particularly serious for enterprises that are eager to produce negative pressure ambulances recently.

The China Automobile Association predicts that this epidemic may lead to the reduction of domestic automobile production by millions, and if the resumption of work is further delayed, the impact will be more serious.

3. Is it more difficult for enterprises to export?

At present, the World Health Organization has listed the novel coronavirus epidemic as a public health emergency of international concern.

Some countries and enterprises refused to accept the ordered goods and canceled the existing orders on the grounds of preventing the spread of the epidemic.

At present, more than 60 countries have implemented immigration control measures against China, which has hindered China enterprises from exploring overseas markets. Although the export volume of automobiles in China is relatively small at present, the export volume of spare parts is relatively large, which also puts great pressure on the production and operation of spare parts enterprises in China.

At the same time, due to the tight supply chain caused by the failure to resume work in time, some enterprises delayed the delivery of export orders, which had a negative impact on the subsequent order signing of these enterprises.

4. The hidden danger of the capital chain break of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased.

Affected by the delayed resumption of work, the production and operation of automobile enterprises stopped, and their income and cash flow were interrupted.

However, expenses including rent, salary and interest still need to be paid as usual. According to the news disclosed by Beijing Benz a few days ago, the daily loss during the delay of returning to work was as high as 400 million yuan, which greatly tested the financial strength of the enterprise. Some small-scale enterprises with weak anti-risk ability may face the risk of bankruptcy.

It is much more difficult for enterprises to deal with standards and regulations.

In July this year 1, the National Sixth Emission Standard issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will impose stricter restrictions on the amount of particulate matter in light vehicles, and the National Sixth Standard will be implemented simultaneously in Phase A.

On May 1 day this year, the relevant technical safety standards for trucks and towed trailers will also be implemented by the Ministry of Transport.

Affected by this epidemic, enterprises need to speed up the digestion of existing stocks, and before the new standards are put on the market, the vehicles and parts products that meet the standards will be listed. For many enterprises, such a requirement is more difficult.

4. Lenovo: Sales of passenger cars in narrow sense decreased by 265,438+0.5% year-on-year? Crises coexist in the epidemic.

Shortly after the conference of China Automobile Association, Passenger Transport Association also announced the overall situation of China passenger car market in June 2020.

According to the data of the Federation, in June 2020, 5438+ 10, the production and sales volume of China narrow sense passenger cars (hereinafter referred to as "passenger cars") were1398,000 and1699,000, respectively, down 29% year-on-year and 21.5 month-on-month.

▲ 1 passenger car output analysis table

In terms of vehicle production, the production of cars, MPVs and SUVs in June this year were 652,000, 74,000 and 676,5438+0./kloc-0, 47.6% and 23.7%, respectively, down by 29.9% and 47.7% year-on-year.

▲65438+ 10 Monthly Passenger Car Sales Analysis Table

In terms of vehicle sales, in June this year, the sales of cars, MPVs and SUVs were 8 1.8 million, 1.6 million, 1.6 million and 780,000 respectively, which decreased by 23.7%, 33. 1% and/kloc-0 respectively.

According to the analysis of the Federation, the decline in production and sales in June 5438+ 10 was mainly affected by the Spring Festival. The effective working day before Spring Festival is 17 days, and the effective sales day is 20 days. Theoretically, the loss of production and sales exceeds 30%.

The original dealer's order carry-over can alleviate some of the sales pressure at the beginning of the year, but due to the sudden COVID-19 epidemic, the dealer's retail sales basically stopped during the Spring Festival, and the sales growth rate in June 5438+ 10 was lower than expected.

In terms of the overall sales volume of passenger car manufacturers, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen still occupy the top two in the list, with monthly sales of187,000 and146,000 respectively.

▲ 1 Monthly Passenger Car Sales Manufacturers Ranking Table

In June, SAIC-GM sold124,000 vehicles, ranking third, while Geely Automobile, the independent brand, ranked fourth in June with sales124,000 vehicles (estimated), becoming the only independent brand car company on the list. Dongfeng has a daily output of 65438+ 10, ranking fifth.

The sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling, Guangqi Honda, Dongfeng Honda, Guangqi Toyota and Beijing Benz in 1 last five months did not exceed 1 10,000 vehicles.

The Federation predicts that although many car companies carried out online marketing activities such as "watching cars in the cloud" and placing orders online during the epidemic, overall, the results were minimal, and the production and operation of the entire automobile industry slowly recovered in February.

Not only that, but in the short term, the production and operation of car companies are under great pressure.

Under the current circumstances, it is difficult for the auto parts system in Hubei, a big automobile town, to resume production on time. In addition, due to the characteristic mode of road closure and village closure in various places, it is difficult for people and logistics in many areas to run smoothly, and it is difficult for many automobile companies to resume production.

Affected by the epidemic, consumers' purchasing power and consumer confidence have been greatly reduced, which is very unfavorable to automobile sales.

However, the Federation also believes that the epidemic is not a part of the survival of the fittest in the automobile industry, and all parties should try their best to help enterprises survive, especially automakers and parts companies in areas with serious epidemics.

Fortunately, many trade associations are actively offering suggestions, and the central and local governments have introduced various bills to help enterprises tide over the epidemic. Car companies in trouble have also played their social responsibilities and actively donated money and materials to areas with serious epidemics. According to incomplete statistics, the total amount of materials and cash donated by major car companies has exceeded 654.38 billion yuan.

At the same time, the Federation also pointed out that "danger" and "opportunity" actually coexist in the epidemic.

On the one hand, in the epidemic, it is difficult for car companies to return to work, consumers' desire to buy is low, and the demand in the online car market is small. The supply and demand of the entire automobile industry, including new energy vehicles, have shrunk dramatically.

On the other hand, after the short-term suppression of the epidemic, consumers' desire to buy a car will break out briefly, and first-time car buyers will have a strong desire to buy.

The outbreak of purchase desire will stimulate a large number of car companies to ship. At this time, enterprises with inventory will benefit from it.

In addition, first-time buyers tend to choose higher-priced brands and models. In this wave of car buying, independent brands are expected to recover some losses suffered in the epidemic.

Conclusion: The COVID-19 epidemic will continue to affect the automobile industry in China.

Although the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is short-term, so far, the epidemic has not reached an inflection point, and it is impossible to judge when the automobile industry in China can return to the pre-epidemic level.

The direct impact of the epidemic includes the reduction of China's annual automobile production by millions, and the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain of the automobile industry. Although the market may have a short consumption peak after the epidemic, overall, the development situation of the whole year is not optimistic.

However, it is worth mentioning that local governments are actively introducing economic security policies to reduce the burden on enterprises, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments are also urging local departments to coordinate and solve the difficulties and problems of enterprises in a timely manner. At present, among the 183 vehicle production bases that have fed back the resumption plan to the China Automobile Association, as of February 12, 59 bases have started to resume work, accounting for 32.2%.

In the long run, this epidemic may play a "sieve" role in the automobile industry, and screening out enterprises with strong anti-risk ability and excellent product quality will further optimize the automobile industry structure in China.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.