Is China's foreign trade surplus or deficit?

Foreign trade is the core of foreign economic relations of all countries in the world and plays an irreplaceable role in the economic development of all countries.

Function is an important means for the country to accelerate economic development. Since the reform and opening up, foreign trade has always been the economy of China.

The "propeller" of economic development, the import and export has also changed from the original deficit to a surplus, and the rich foreign exchange reserves have become my

China's "reassurance" for healthy economic and social development. With the huge trade surplus, it also brings some new problems.

This topic has attracted the attention of relevant parties. Customs statistics is an important part of national economic statistics, and it is based on one piece.

The accuracy and authority of the accumulated, audited and counted import and export declarations are internationally recognized. Cross the sea

By comparing and analyzing the relevant statistical data, we can better understand the situation of China's foreign trade development and trade surplus.

Clear understanding.

First, since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade has always maintained a good momentum of development, which has effectively promoted

The healthy and rapid development of the national economy

Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade import and export has played an increasingly important role in promoting international and domestic economic development.

1988, China's total foreign trade import and export exceeded100 billion USD for the first time, reaching102.79 billion USD; afterwards

After six years' development, it has reached a step of $100 billion in 1994; 1997, the total foreign trade value exceeds 3000.

For the first time, it ranks among the global 10 trading powers.

200 1 After China's entry into WTO, its foreign trade is full of vitality, with an annual growth rate of 20%.

The above speed is increasing, which is the fastest period since the reform and opening up, and has achieved remarkable results:

In 2004, the scale of foreign trade import and export exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, making it the third largest trading country in the world. Foreign affairs in 2006

Trade import and export 1.76 trillion US dollars, ranking the third largest trading country in the world, and the trade with the second largest trading country has further shrunk.

The gap between countries; In the five years since China's entry into WTO, the total value of imports and exports has exceeded the sum of the period from reform and opening up to China's entry into WTO.

The sum of 23 years before weaving; In 2006, foreign exchange reserves exceeded 1 trillion dollars, reaching 10663 billion dollars.

The good development of foreign trade is very important to solve the contradictions in China's economic development and improve the quality of our products.

International competitiveness and comprehensive national strength, and even the promotion of the world economy, all play a very important role:

First, improve China's economic structure and accelerate the process of industrialization. With the development of China's foreign trade, it is export-oriented

The economic sector continued to grow, and by expanding exports and using the funds obtained, it introduced the capital needed for industrial production.

Products, raw materials, technology, etc. Accelerate the process of industrialization, change the traditional industrial pattern and promote the optimization of industrial structure.

Enhance China's overall competitiveness in the international arena.

The second is to promote domestic technological progress and reflect the "late-comer advantage." Foreign trade is very important for China to acquire technology.

The channels of intellectual property rights and transnational transactions constitute an important part of modern international trade. In recent years, China

Through the introduction of advanced technology and production lines, the export structure of products has been continuously optimized, which has promoted domestic technological progress.

Step, this "late-comer advantage" is of great significance to promoting economic development.

The third is to make full use of "two resources and two markets" to enhance the economic ability to resist risks. Through the exporting country

The relatively surplus products produced in China can occupy a place in the international market and alleviate the contradiction between domestic supply and demand.

The economic benefit is high. At present, China's exports depend on mobile phones, refrigerators, televisions, motorcycles, clothing, shoes and hats.

They are all above 50%, and some even reach more than 70%. Moreover, the shortage of raw materials needed for domestic economic development can pass.

Through foreign trade, China became the largest importer of iron ore, alumina and crude oil in the world in 2005.

The third largest importer. Due to the benign operation of import and export, it not only makes up for the staged development of China's domestic economy.

Structural imbalance, improve the total level, and gradually realize the rationalization, upgrading and strengthening of industrial structure.

Economic ability to resist risks.

The fourth is to promote capital accumulation and enhance economies of scale.

Over the years, China's trade surplus in goods has been an important source of rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves. 200 1 End

China's foreign exchange reserves just exceeded $200 billion, and exceeded 1 trillion by the end of 2006, and the trade in goods was also very smooth in the same period.

The cumulative difference reached $367.5 billion, equivalent to 43% of the increase in foreign exchange reserves in the same period. Trade surplus is the capital of an enterprise.

Accumulate and provide sources of funds, improve manufacturers' expectations of the future market, stimulate investment demand and promote

And the scale benefit of the enterprise is improved.

Fifth, it has effectively promoted economic growth and domestic employment. The export-oriented economy is becoming more and more active, driving

The improvement of domestic employment level. According to the analysis of relevant experts, in 2006, China's dependence on foreign trade reached about 70%.

It has effectively promoted domestic employment, and the number of new jobs in cities and towns is 1 1.84 million, which is the largest number of new jobs in recent years.

One year.

Sixth, play an active role in global economic growth. Compared with many countries, China's development is more open.

Sex has a greater driving effect on world economic growth, and imports and exports have maintained rapid growth for many years.

. According to the analysis of relevant experts, the contribution of China's foreign trade growth to the world trade growth in 2003-2005.

The rate has been kept at around 10%, which has played an important role in promoting the overall recovery of the global economy.

Second, the trade surplus is the inevitable result of China's policy of actively utilizing foreign capital and its unique trade structure, and it is also domestic.

Normal performance of long-term healthy and rapid economic development

For a long time, China has enjoyed a good political and economic environment. In recent years, the world economy has grown in an all-round way.

It has created a good external environment and internal conditions for China to actively use foreign capital, forming a processing trade-oriented

Trade mode and China's unique trade structure with foreign-invested enterprises as the main body of import and export. This is China's foreign trade.

The main factor that is easy to maintain a surplus for a long time.

First, processing trade has developed rapidly. On the one hand, China has a good industrial supporting capacity and a large number of cheap labor.

Power, accelerate the transfer of global manufacturing to China. On the other hand, due to the bonded policy of processing trade,

Foreign investment in processing trade is attractive. Therefore, for a long time, processing trade has become China's foreign trade.

Half the country. Processing trade is a form of value-added trade, which will inevitably produce a trade surplus. China in 2006.

The total trade surplus is $654.38+$775 million, of which the trade mode of import and export deficit is: setting up foreign-invested enterprises.

The import deficit of foreign exchange was $27.8 billion, the import and export deficit of bonded areas and bonded warehouses was $60 billion, and there were other trading parties.

The type has a partial deficit; The trade modes of import and export surplus mainly include: general trade import and export surplus of 83 1 100 million US dollars.

The import and export surplus of processing trade reached $654.38+0889 billion, exceeding the total trade surplus. It can be seen that when

Pre-processing trade is the most important factor of China's foreign trade surplus.

Second, China's utilization of foreign direct investment continues to grow. In 2006, China made use of foreign direct investment to achieve.

6.3 billion US dollars, has been maintained at the level of more than 60 billion US dollars for three consecutive years, of which nearly 70% was invested in manufacturing.

Medium. At present, more than 190 countries and regions have invested in China, and more than 480 of the world's top 500 enterprises have invested in China.

China has become a global manufacturing center for some important industrial products. The position of foreign-invested enterprises in China's foreign trade

The status is increasingly consolidated. On the one hand, foreign-invested enterprises produce for the domestic market, replacing some import demand. steel

The import and export of materials, automobiles and parts, machinery and equipment, consumer electronics products, urea and other products have occurred.

A marked change. On the other hand, due to the limited domestic market, foreign-funded enterprises have huge export demand.

Beg. In recent years, the export of foreign-invested enterprises accounted for 60% of China's total foreign trade export.

About, and it is increasing year by year.

In addition to the above two long-term factors, China's trade surplus is closely related to the following three short-term factors.

First, some enterprises raided exports before the adjustment of export tax rebate rate. In the past two years, the state has attached great importance to "two highs and one capital" (

High energy consumption, high pollution and resource) products have successively reduced or cancelled the export tax rebate rate. Enterprises often make adjustments according to policies.

Export in advance or surprise all day. For example, in 2006, the phenomenon of concentrated surprise export of steel, clothing and other products was more obvious.

Show.

Second, the pressure of RMB appreciation urges enterprises to accelerate the pace of export. As of June this year, 65438+ 10, the RMB was against the US dollar.

Compared with before the exchange rate reform, the cumulative appreciation of the exchange rate has reached 6%. In the long run, the appreciation of RMB will have a negative impact on the high proportion of imports and foreign debts.

Large industries with high liquidity or huge RMB assets will bring benefits, but for export-oriented,

Industries with high foreign currency assets or internationally priced products will have an impact, such as electronics, textiles, machinery and other industries. for

In order to reduce or avoid the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB, many enterprises have accelerated the pace of export and purchased from imports.

Hold a wait-and-see attitude

Third, the rising cost of export has raised the price of export commodities. Due to the shortage of land, raw materials and labor in China in recent years

The increase in the price of electricity leads to the increase in the export cost of enterprises, and many enterprises pass on some of the costs by raising the export price.

. Compared with 2005, the export price of China increased by 4.2% in 2006, while the import price only increased by 3%.

It should be pointed out that with the continuous improvement of the management level of cracking down on export tax fraud and the awareness of law-abiding and self-discipline of enterprises

Constantly strengthening, the illegal acts of export tax fraud by enterprises have gradually decreased; The direct cause of the rise in the overall level of export prices

It is a slight appreciation of the renminbi and an overall increase in export costs. Therefore, from the perspective of customs statistics, the so-called "big"

It is unfounded to say that exaggerating export prices to defraud export tax rebates leads to a huge false trade surplus.

In addition, a few developed countries or regions have imposed a blockade on the export of high technology and its products in China, resulting in

China's economic development and industrial upgrading urgently need to import insufficient technology and equipment, which also leads to a stable trade volume.

An important factor of difference.

Third, we should correctly treat and properly handle the new problems brought about by the sharp increase in trade surplus.

China's policy of actively utilizing foreign capital and its unique trade structure determine that China's trade surplus will exist for a long time.

Existence. To judge whether trade is balanced internationally, the trade balance is usually compared with the total import and export volume of the current year.

10% is basically normal, and this 10% can also be called the "warning line" of trade imbalance. China Trade in 2006

The surplus was US$ 654.38+0775 billion, accounting for about 654.38+00.5438+0% of the total import and export volume in that year, just touching the "warning line". From the present world

Judging from the situation of Germany, the world's largest exporter, during the 54 years from 1952 to 2005, Germany's foreign trade was

Surplus, the trade surplus exceeded $654.38+000 billion for the first time in 2002 and $654.38+09 billion in 2004 and 2005.

Among them, the year when the trade imbalance exceeds 10% is 12, and the highest is 12.7%, which exceeds the current trade imbalance in China.

Balance. Therefore, China's current large trade surplus is basically normal.

However, the huge trade surplus has also brought us new problems. For example, between China and its major trading partners.

With the increase of trade friction, the risk of export enterprises encountering international trade barriers increases; China's foreign exchange management is facing more liberalization.

Open international pressure; The domestic economy faces potential inflation risks. In this regard, we must attach great importance to and take.

Take active and prudent measures to ensure the healthy development of the economy.

In my opinion, to solve this problem, we should not only work hard in the field of foreign trade, but also use our brains in other fields.

We should not only change the mode of export growth, but also make a fuss about expanding imports and increasing domestic demand. first

Vigorously developing the domestic consumer market can stimulate domestic demand and improve domestic consumption by improving the social security system.

The situation of low cost. Secondly, it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade and limit the categories of goods by expanding processing trade.

Product catalogue, adjustment of processing trade policy for products such as "two high-tech and one capital". Third, the policy of utilizing foreign capital.

Make necessary adjustments to the policy, from "attracting investment" to "selecting business and selecting capital" and "raising business and educating capital". Fourth,

Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and reasonably guide the expectation of appreciation. Fifth, adjust the export structure and expand imports.

Do some concrete work, especially urge a few developed countries or regions to relax high technology and its products.

The export restrictions on China have made the import and export structure more optimized and eased the pressure of excessive growth of the surplus.

In short, in the face of the new situation caused by a large number of trade surpluses, we should maintain a normal mind, which should be highly valued.

Depending on the external imbalance and internal influence brought by the trade surplus problem, we should also correctly understand the objective inevitability of the trade surplus.

Make love. As long as we analyze problems calmly and objectively and deal with them actively and steadily, China's foreign trade will always be.

Maintain a good momentum of development