Can new energy vehicles account for 50% of traditional vehicles in 2020?

Taking the total mileage of electric vehicles as a reference value, in the first half of this year, among the top ten car companies in Greater China, except Tesla, five were from China.

1, data calculation

The data calculation comes from an authoritative business consulting company in the United States, which has developed a brand-new quarterly index to track the electrification development process of automobile enterprises. The algorithm is to multiply the sales volume of electric vehicles by the cruising range of electric vehicles to get the cruising range of electric vehicles.

In fact, this calculation method is more inclined to pure electric vehicles, with long cruising range, excluding hybrid vehicles. As for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, we only need to calculate the cruising range of the battery to get the result.

Back to four years ago, the total cruising range of new energy vehicles sold in China was only over 223,000 miles (about 358,000 kilometers). As of the second quarter of this year, this data has reached 6.5438+0.4 million miles (about 22.53 million kilometers). The growth rate is beyond everyone's imagination.

The five domestic automobile brands mentioned at the beginning of the article are BYD, BAIC, Geely, Zhi Dou and Jianghuai. If we look at the layout and policies of China automobile industry in new energy business in recent years, to be honest, this result is also foreseeable.

According to experts' prediction, not surprisingly, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China market will reach 600,000 this year, which seems huge, but this is only a starting point. According to the changing policy, the market share of electric vehicles will also change. Taking 2020 as the dividing point, the sales figures will only increase.

In addition to independent brands, most overseas car companies are also planning to increase the production of electric vehicles in the future. However, according to the forecast, by 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in China by car companies from other countries in the world will be hard to match, let alone surpass. It can be said that the global leader of new energy vehicles is China New Energy Vehicles.

2. Development and layout of new energy vehicles

At the Frankfurt Motor Show, new energy automobile products and new energy strategic planning became the biggest attraction and the most discussed core focus. Its topicality even exceeds emerging technologies such as intelligence and driverless driving. Although it is not a revolutionary technology, it is the word "electric", which is enough to involve keywords about energy, future travel, automobile connotation and so on.

WEY new energy vehicles in Frankfurt

The popularity of new energy vehicles has not diminished, but it has nothing to do with the current policy and market environment. Previously, the traditional car ban timetable introduced in Britain occupied the headlines of major media, but in China, this influential news was more sensitive. Independent brands are seizing the opportunity of policies to take the lead in launching challenges, but for overseas enterprises, no one wants to give up the big cake of China market.

Recently, the "double points" management method has aroused strong repercussions in the industry. This management mechanism for automobile enterprises to reduce carbon emissions is undoubtedly forward-looking and conducive to future energy development in the core sense, but it is obviously a bit passive for enterprises mainly using traditional fuel vehicles.

3. What exactly is a double integral?

On September 22nd last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Interim Measures for Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Points (Draft for Comment) (referred to as "Double Points"). Compared with the previous encouragement policy on new energy, this time it is extremely serious. If it fails to meet the standards, it shall suspend the declaration of automobile catalogue and the production or import of a corresponding number of traditional automobile models.

As long as the annual domestic output or import volume is more than 50,000 vehicles, these passenger car enterprises will need 8%, 18% and 12% new energy vehicles from 2065 to 2020 respectively. Among them, each pure electric vehicle can accumulate 2 to 5 points according to the driving range, and hybrid vehicles such as HEV/PHEV with a cruising range of more than 50 kilometers can accumulate 2 points.

Take Volkswagen as an example, its annual sales volume in China is 3 million, and it needs to earn 240,000 points in 20 18 years. Accordingly, the brand must sell at least 48,000 pure electric vehicles or a corresponding number of plug-in and hybrid vehicles that meet the integral standard to meet the standard.

It is easy to understand that new energy vehicles can be said to be a sharp knife for China automobile industry to achieve "overtaking in corners". Although the final document of the official department has not been obtained, whether this policy is postponed or not is beneficial to the upward development of independent brands.