What is the contribution of Zhejiang's foreign trade export?

From the perspective of dependence on foreign trade, foreign trade has a growing impact on Zhejiang's economy; Judging from the contribution rate and pulling degree of net foreign trade export (foreign trade surplus), the pulling effect of foreign trade export on Zhejiang's economic growth in the new period exceeds investment and consumption; Through the analysis of foreign trade regression model, import decomposition method, economic growth elasticity and industrial export extroversion, it is proved that foreign trade plays a significant role in economic growth. At present, maintaining the pulling effect of foreign trade export on economic growth is of great significance to the transformation of Zhejiang's economic development mode. Its significance lies in emphasizing that economic growth should take into account the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, sustainability and social needs such as employment and distribution. At present, the development of Zhejiang's foreign trade has reached the stage from quantitative expansion to intensive development. It is necessary to adjust and optimize the structure of foreign trade and emphasize the role of foreign trade in promoting economic and social development. The most remarkable achievement of foreign trade in the new period is rapid growth, rapid expansion of export scale and market share; On the other hand, we should pay more attention to or deepen our understanding of the role of foreign trade in economic development. (1) From the perspective of foreign trade dependence and export dependence, the role of foreign trade in Zhejiang's economic development is the most commonly used indicator to measure the degree of economic extroversion. According to the concept commonly used by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, it refers to the ratio of foreign trade to gross national product, that is, the ratio of total foreign trade to regional gross domestic product (GDP). The author calculated the foreign trade dependence of Zhejiang Province from 1999 to 2006, and the results showed that the foreign trade dependence of Zhejiang Province was increasing steadily. From 28. 18% at the end of last century to 70.89% in 2006, with an average annual growth rate of about 6 percentage points. Compared with the total indicators of national economic development in the same period, such as the province's GDP, per capita GDP, total investment in fixed assets, fiscal revenue and total retail sales of social consumer goods, foreign trade exports grew the fastest, with an average annual growth rate about 18 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period. What needs to be explained here is that the dependence on foreign trade does not mean the "degree of dependence" of a regional economy on the international market, nor does it mean the "degree of risk" of the economy, but the "degree of influence" of foreign trade on the economy. Zhejiang's dependence on foreign trade is on the rise, which shows that foreign trade has an increasing influence on Zhejiang's economic development. On the other hand, we should also see that the dependence on foreign trade is indeed overestimated. First of all, the total foreign trade is the concept of sales revenue, while the gross domestic product is the concept of added value, which is a comparison of two completely different values. Secondly, China's GDP statistics are incomplete, and the GDP is underestimated to some extent, but there is an overlapping part in the total foreign trade-the value of imported materials in processing trade. According to the author's calculation, excluding the repeated statistical factors of processing trade, Zhejiang's dependence on foreign trade decreased by about 5 percentage points on average, and it was about 65% in 2006. Export dependence is an index that can reflect the degree of economic openness more deeply than foreign trade dependence. Compared with the concept of foreign trade dependence, it emphasizes the driving role of export trade in economic development, which can better explain the openness of regional economy and avoid double counting of processing trade. According to estimates, Zhejiang's export dependence increased from less than 20% in 1999 to more than 50% in 2006, with an average annual increase of 4.3 percentage points. Half of the social output value is realized by export, which has played a basic supporting role in Zhejiang's economic growth. Compared with the six major foreign trade provinces and cities in China and coastal areas, Zhejiang's foreign trade export scale ranks fourth in China, and its export dependence also ranks fourth in the six major coastal provinces and cities, which are consistent. At present, Zhejiang's export dependence is lower than 4 1 percentage point in Guangdong, 36.3 percentage points in Shanghai and 7.8 percentage points in Jiangsu. The author believes that compared with other coastal foreign trade provinces, Zhejiang's current export dependence is in a normal and reasonable range, and it has not yet reached the level of endangering economic operation and bringing great risks. Zhejiang's foreign trade is dominated by general trade and private enterprises, which is unique in the country and has good operation quality and efficiency. (II) The role of foreign trade in economic development from the perspective of net export contribution rate and pulling. The foreign trade contribution rate refers to the proportion of foreign trade added value and production added value, which is usually calculated by the proportion of net export increment to GDP, so it is also called "net export contribution rate". The concept of "net export" here refers to exports minus imports, which is commonly referred to as "foreign trade surplus", but the word "net export" is commonly used when analyzing the pulling effect of the three major demands on economic growth. From 1999-2006, the contribution rate of Zhejiang's net foreign trade exports to GDP growth has been fluctuating. The contribution rate of net foreign trade exports to local economic growth reached a high of 42.83% in 2000, decreased to 23% in 200 1 year, reached a high of 69.23% in 2005, and declined somewhat in 2006. The trend of net export contribution rate of foreign trade is quite different from that of export dependence. It is not a steady growth, but more objectively reflects the changes in the contribution of foreign trade to the economy in that year. There is a highly positive correlation between the net export contribution rate and the export growth rate. The deep decline of net export contribution rate in 200 1 year is closely related to the decrease of export growth rate by 32.8 percentage points in that year compared with the previous year. Net export pull is to measure the pulling effect of foreign trade on national economic growth from the perspective of total demand, which refers to the pulling degree of foreign trade growth and then production growth on GDP growth, that is, the share of foreign trade contribution in GDP growth. The trend of Zhejiang's net export pull is completely consistent with the trend of net export contribution rate. In 2000, it reached a relatively high level of 4.7 1, then fell back after 5438+0 in 2006 and reached a high level of 8.86 in 2005. In 2006, due to the slowdown of foreign trade growth, the net export pull decreased slightly. In 2006, Zhejiang's net foreign trade export boosted the province's economic growth by 7.9, that is, GDP growth 13.9%, of which 7.9 percentage points were realized by foreign trade growth. From 2000 to 2006, Zhejiang's "troika" of investment, consumption and net export promoted economic growth: Remarks: The contribution rate of investment is expressed by the contribution rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society, the contribution rate of consumption is expressed by the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the contribution rate of exports to GDP growth is shown in the above figure. In 2000, the contribution rate of investment to GDP growth in Zhejiang Province was higher than that of net export and consumption, 200 1-2002. In 2005-2006, the contribution rate of foreign trade net exports reached 69.23% and 56.87% respectively, which was far greater than that of investment and consumption. It should be noted that the calculation of contribution rate and pull degree should include international service trade, which is not included in the current calculation and analysis because of the inconsistent statistical caliber and imperfect statistical system in China. Indicators such as net export pull and foreign trade contribution rate are also flawed. First of all, the net export index is usually used to calculate the contribution rate and pulling degree of foreign trade. The net export index not only underestimates the supporting role of exports in production, but also fails to reflect the role of imports in the adjustment and optimization of economic structure and the improvement of technical equipment level. Secondly, the calculation methods of contribution rate and pull pay attention to increment rather than the proportion in the basic scale, thus underestimating the role of foreign trade in economic development to some extent. Using it to analyze economic growth is one-sided, which will cover up the actual effect of import and export on economic growth.