Bitcoin hit a record high. Is Bitcoin a Financial Trap?

The rapid rise of bitcoin price comes from the fact that its use value is gradually recognized by the green ecology of popular commercial services. For example, JackDorsey, the founder of Twitter and Square, publicized the BTC project in Silicon Valley in the United States, calling it the original ecological loan currency of the next generation Internet technology, and announced that it would spend 50 million US dollars to acquire BTC. Naturally, in addition to the internet technology circle, it is also like the BTC private equity fund released by financial enterprises abroad to help traditional financial enterprises obtain BTC financial planning.

This year is the year when BTC derivatives are accepted by public financial derivatives. Traditional financial enterprises have obtained BTC opening according to the futures trading derivatives of CME, the world's largest derivatives platform. According to the document published by CFTC on March 30th, this paper quantitatively analyzes RenaissanceTechnologies, Dasheng's flagship stock fund involved in the bitcoin futures market. On August 18 this year, the trading position of CME BTC set a new record of about 80,000 BTCs. The entry of technical financial derivatives into the sales market means that the aspect ratio of the sales market is systematic.

CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange's net holdings of financial derivatives trading bitcoin futures are generally short. According to skew, most financial derivatives use forward hedging arbitrage to earn equity premium. According to the CoT report released on June 24th this year 165438+, the short trading position of this stock fund is about 22 1 15 BTC. What is a short position? The net multi-transaction position in the retail account was 1 1585 BTCs, and the trading position of financial derivatives hit a historical high.

At present, the total position cost of BTC commodity futures is about 6.3 billion, which is 1.33% higher than that at the beginning of this year, constantly refreshing the historical time record. Different from the spot trading market, the positions of zero-sum game derivatives without compulsory liquidation have increased, which shows the degree of contradiction between buyers and sellers on the pre-bid price of spot trading.