2020: Shuffle, Rooting and Capital Carnival

Author | Xu Yun, wandering master

Editor | Egg Manager

In 2020, China's new car-making forces will usher in a development watershed.

On the one hand, it is the infinite scenery of the "Four Little Dragons", the head of the new power to build cars: Weilai got help from state-owned assets and was successfully reborn; Ideal and Tucki went public in the United States one after another; Weimar financing 654.38+0 billion plans to land on the science and technology innovation board. On the other hand, Bojun, Lindsay, Baiteng, Future, Changjiang Automobile, etc. have fallen into operational difficulties and are on the verge of being eliminated.

The new pattern was gradually formed in the big reshuffle, and the battle for mass production of new forces to build cars in the first half of the year was basically settled.

However, when the competition is far from over, improving the quality of vehicles is still a protracted war that new forces must face. In addition to building cars, the battlefield of the new forces of building cars has also spread to charging facilities, autonomous driving and other fields, and the technical dispute in the second half has begun.

It's not time to decide who will have the last laugh. But in 2020, it is destined to be a bright spot in the development history of new energy vehicles.

Since the birth of the new car-making forces, there has never been a lack of singing skills. However, in the cold winter of capital under the epidemic in 2020, the new forces of making cars have shown vigorous vitality and become the darling of capital. One of the biggest reversal scenes was staged on Weilai.

Looking back on 20 19, it was a year when Wei lai was troubled by negative factors and struggled to survive. Wei lai, who is short of funds, looks for money everywhere, but none of the powerful shareholders lend a helping hand; Guangzhou Automobile, Geely and other car giants were once rumored to invest in Weilai, and finally the rumors were denied; Wei Lai also sought the help of local governments such as Beijing and Zhejiang, and all of them went away.

It was not until 2020 that Weilai was considered to have turned around. First, it raised $435 million through convertible bonds, and then received 7 billion yuan from strategic investors such as Anhui State-owned Assets, which opened up the RMB financing channel and obtained 654.38+004 billion comprehensive credit from six major banks. Subsequently, in June and September, Weilai announced that it had raised $428 million and $654.38+73 million respectively through the issuance of ADS. 65438+February 10, Weilai also announced plans to issue 60 million ADS.

It's not just Wei Lai who saved the day. In 2020, the head enterprises of the new car-making forces were all popular with capital, and there was a "listing tide". Tucki and Ideality went public in the United States one after another. After completing the 654.38 billion series D financing, Weimar pushed the company to go public in science and technology innovation board, which is expected to become the first new energy vehicle in science and technology innovation board.

Zhang Chi, chairman of Ding Xin Capital, bluntly told Tanker that the reason why the new car-making forces are in a hurry to go public is mainly because they are still losing money, and the industry must hold a lot of money to develop.

"Making cars is different from making other things. This is a very expensive industry. Making a car is only the first step. It costs more to sell cars, but one car is not enough. There must be two, three or more models. Therefore, this industry burned a lot of money in the early stage and is a capital-intensive industry. This determines that it is not enough for such enterprises to rely solely on private equity financing. It must be listed as soon as possible, otherwise there will be no way to compete with others. " Zhang Chi further pointed out.

Zeng Piquan, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association New Energy Automobile Branch, also believes that the main reason why the new car-making forces are eager to go public is lack of money. "Ordinary traditional car companies actually can't spend so much money to build cars, maybe a few billion is enough, but the new force of building cars may take one or two billion to build. If you want to seriously develop autonomous driving, it is a bottomless pit. "

In the secondary market, new energy car companies, including the new forces of building cars, have also been welcomed by investors.

In the overseas capital market, Tesla, which was built in 17 years ago, has already left behind a century-old car company. On June 10, US Eastern Time, Tesla's market value replaced Toyota for the first time, becoming the car company with the highest market value in the world. By 65438+February 1 1, Toyota's market value was $210.95 million, less than half of Tesla's market value of $5,7821billion.

Even though the share price of China's new car-making forces fell after the end of June 1 1, there was still a good increase during the year. By the end of 65438+February, 1 1, the market value of Weilai was US$ 57.07 billion, and its share price was US$ 465438 +0.98 per share, which was more than 1000% higher than that at the beginning of the year. Xpeng Motors has a market value of USD 33.728 billion, up108.4438+0% from the first day of listing; Li's market value is $2,865,438+49 million, up 90.52% from the first day of listing.

In the domestic capital market, as of 65,438+February, 1 1, BYD, which has seized new energy vehicles and power batteries, saw its share price rise by nearly 250% in the A-share market during the year, with a market value of 455.6 billion yuan, surpassing the former champion SAIC by1775.34 million yuan, making it the highest car enterprise in China.

"This is a process of qualitative change caused by quantitative change. As early as three years ago, we voted for this track, thinking that one day, the outbreak of new energy vehicles will be the same as that of smartphones replacing black and white machines. It is not a slow and linear explosion, but a steep cliff-like explosion. " Zhang Chi concluded.

In his view, the new car-making forces ushered in a capital boom in 2020, which is the result of a combination of many reasons at home and abroad:

In foreign countries, the sales of new energy vehicles in the European market doubled this year, and Tesla's market value rose by more than 500 billion US dollars, which led to the skyrocketing of new energy vehicle stocks in the entire US stock market.

In China, the number of new energy vehicles has reached several million, accounting for an increase in the total number of vehicles. The new infrastructure has accelerated the construction of charging piles and the coordination of vehicles and roads, the facilities related to various new energy vehicles have been continuously improved, the technologies related to charging piles and cruising range have gradually matured, and various state subsidies have stimulated the economy, which has accelerated the consumption of new energy vehicles as a whole.

According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1- 1 month this year, up by 3.9% year-on-year.

The year 2020 is coming to an end, and the new car-making forces are still busy raising funds, and the enthusiasm for capital has not yet been extinguished.

On February 2, 65438, Nezha Automobile announced that the C-round financing was coming to an end, with Huading capital of 2 billion yuan, and the final financing amount would far exceed the original plan of 3 billion yuan.

At the same time, China Evergrande is increasing its shareholding in Evergrande. 12 On February 2-3 and 7-9, China Evergrande invested a total of HK$ 2.309 billion to increase its shareholding in Evergrande. As of February 9th, 65438, China Evergrande's shareholding in Evergrande Automobile increased to 74.44%.

The new car-making forces listed on the US stock market are also busy issuing additional shares to raise funds.

65438+ On February 2, US Eastern Time, Li announced that he planned to issue 47 million additional American Depositary Shares (ADS) with a net financing of about16.02 million US dollars. Among them, Wang Xing, the current director of Li Yanhong and the founder and CEO of Meituan, intends to buy advertisements of up to $20 million. On February 9th, 65438, Xpeng Motors announced that it would issue 48 million ADSs, raising 265438+600 million USD, and the public offering price was 45 USD /ADS, which was three times the IPO price.

In addition, Tesla, the leader of new energy vehicles and the new force to build cars, also announced on February 8, 65438 that it would refinance $5 billion. Relevant statistics show that the financing amount of Tesla since its listing on 20 10 has reached176.7 billion US dollars, among which, since this year alone, there have been three additional issues, raising funds of 123 billion US dollars.

"Capital is always rational and not fanatical. The new forces that build cars get a lot of financing, and the essence lies in the improvement of overall strength and the recognition of consumers, which depends on the market. " Zeng Yuquan said.

"All happy families are alike, and each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." Tolstoy's prologue in Anna karenin is also a true portrayal of the new forces making cars.

At the same time, the cruel knockout rounds are also staged in the industry.

On February 7th, 65438, the National Business Daily reported that Changjiang Automobile publicly recruited investors for bankruptcy and reorganization.

"If investors are willing to take over the restructuring of Changjiang Automobile, the enterprise may be resurrected. If not, after bankruptcy liquidation, it means that the enterprise is cancelled and Changjiang Automobile is' dead'. " In this report, a Shanghai lawyer engaged in civil and commercial cases said.

Changjiang Automobile was born with a "golden spoon" and had a wonderful moment.

Behind the parent company of Changjiang Automobile, Wulong Electric Vehicle, there is a Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing. 20 16 April, Wulong electric vehicle invested 5 1 100 million yuan to launch the electric vehicle brand "Changjiang EV". Changjiang Automobile is one of the first new energy automobile enterprises approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the second new energy automobile enterprise with "double qualifications" after BAIC New Energy.

It takes only four years from the infinite scenery to bankruptcy and reorganization.

In fact, in the rapid running in recent years, the thunder of the new force of building cars is not new, and it is far more than just Changjiang Automobile. In 2020, the knockout round will continue, and there are endless reports about new car-making forces such as Bojun, Lindsay, Baiteng and Future Auto, which are in business difficulties.

"We have seen these projects in 20 17 and 20 18, and most of them were run by myself. At that time, Li Xiang was still making cars and homes, and had not come to mix routes. Weilai wants dollars, but he can't vote. We looked at twenty or thirty projects and compared them. In the end, the whole car only voted for Tucki and Weimar. " Zhang Chi told the tanker.

In his view, the new energy car track can accommodate many enterprises, but it can't accommodate too many enterprises. If the new forces of building cars want to win, they must first have enough money to afford it; Secondly, the car should have a clear positioning; In addition, we must have the ability of bold implementation and cost control, which is a reflection of comprehensive ability.

The new car-making enterprises that have been eliminated and bankrupt are somewhat flawed.

"Most of the fallen new forces for building cars are slowly coming out. If they don't build cars and others do, it won't be able to seize the opportunity to make money. In addition, the positioning of the car is also problematic. For example, the Great Wall Crown positioning high-end sports cars, there is not much market at all. There are also some new forces of state-owned enterprises to build cars, with strong style and low efficiency; There are still some borrowing capacity who are too weak. " Zhang Chi commented.

Take Changjiang Automobile as an example. It has three electric vehicles, namely, Yige, Yisheng and Zhong Yi, and a small pure electric SUV. From the outside world, this kind of play is problematic, because the market of electric commercial vehicles is relatively small, and there are already head players like BYD, and Changjiang Automobile is not dominant.

The footnote of fate may have been buried at the beginning of the establishment of some new car-making forces.

"There are many reasons why the new forces of building cars have been eliminated, but the core is the human problem. Investment is investment, and the ideas and ideas of the founders determine whether car companies can run out. "

Zhang Chi, for example, said that Tucki and Weimar's idea is very clear, and their orientation is very clear. They are all positioning the low-end and at the same time accelerating the iteration, which is very efficient. Although Tucki took the OEM mode and Weimar took the self-built factory mode, the same thing is that they both built cars at the first time and sold them quickly.

"Now the first few cars in the whole market are alive, and those who have not built cars are dead." Zhang Chi concluded.

This is undoubtedly a battle of speed. It took less than 65,438+00 years from the hot sale of Tesla Model S in 2065,438+03, to the intensive introduction of nearly 20 relevant favorable policies by governments at all levels in China in 2065,438+04, and then to the emergence and fall of new car-making forces.

In this battle about speed, the new forces of making cars will face much greater pressure than the new energy automobile brands of traditional automobile enterprises, and the advantages of capital, technology, talents and brands accumulated by traditional automobile enterprises for a long time will start from scratch.

This also determines that the new forces of making cars must run faster to have a chance to survive when they join the "chasing the wind" war.

At present, the new forces of making cars are undoubtedly still standing on the cusp. On a global scale, countries have become more and more strict with the emission reduction targets of automobile carbon dioxide, which promotes the era of fuel vehicles to the era of new energy vehicles. China, which lost its first-Mover advantage in the era of fuel vehicles, is also vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles, so as to realize the "overtaking in corners" of the global automobile industry, which has given more development impetus to the new forces building cars. The enthusiasm of the capital market has also added enough fuel for the follow-up development of the new car-making forces.

However, the tuyere has never been exposed to rain and dew. Once a certain field becomes a hot spot, capital and entrepreneurs will surge in, and at the same time, the tide of reshuffle and bankruptcy will surely follow.

Just as Lei Jun emphasized in response to the "Flying Pig Theory" that "anyone needs 10,000 hours of hard training to succeed", not every "pig" standing on the tuyere can successfully take off, and those new forces that failed to grow their own "little wings" gradually disappeared into the torrent of the times.

"Selling 654.38 million cars a year is a possible prerequisite for the future." 13 months ago, he said this to the media.

At that time, in He's understanding, the new car-making forces had three hurdles to pass: 1, trying to realize a car show; 2. From one car to hundreds of thousands of cars and safety intelligence; 3. Stable delivery every month, brand up, and R&D is full of vitality.

After experiencing the black swan epidemic and the threat of Tesla's localization, it seems that the new forces that have built cars on their heads have passed the third stage that He Xiaopeng said. In the second half of 2020, new car-making forces and new models began to increase in volume, the company's business was running smoothly, and the scale effect began to appear. This made the new force of making cars in the head breathe a sigh of relief and handed over a beautiful Q3 answer sheet.

In the third quarter, the sales volume of new forces increased significantly. Among them, Weilai * * * delivered 1.2 million vehicles, up1.54% year-on-year; Tucki delivered 8,578 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 265.8%; Ideal delivery of 8660 vehicles, an increase of 3 1. 1% from the previous month, and Li ONE9 became the first in domestic new energy SUV sales for two consecutive months in September.

Sales growth has also improved the financial situation of the new forces. Take Weilai as an example. In the third quarter of 2020, Weilai's revenue continued to grow at a high speed, and its losses narrowed. Q3 Weilai achieved a total revenue of 4.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of146.4%; The net loss narrowed to 654.38+0.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.5%.

In addition to Weilai, the other two newly listed car-making forces also turned around in Q3. Among them, the total revenue of Xpeng Automobile increased by 342.5% year-on-year, reaching 65.438+99 billion yuan; General Li's revenue reached 25 1. 1 100 million yuan, and he turned losses into profits this quarter.

After a huge investment in the early stage, the main models of the new forces of building cars began to make blood.

In the third quarter, the gross profit of Weilai, Tucki and Ideal Bicycle was 51.7/56,000 yuan respectively. Among them, the ideal cost control is the most ideal. After the reform, the bicycle sales and management expenses of Weilai decreased obviously, while in Tucki and Mao Lijiao, although low, they also showed an upward trend.

"Now the media criticizes that the new forces that build cars rarely use the words' burning money and circling money'. From the perspective of sales volume and financial situation, the new forces have stabilized. " Zhou Tao, an auto analyst, told Tanker. In Zhou Tao's view, in 2020, the new head forces have completed the iterative product update. "The launch of new models is the beginning of a good cycle of new manufacturing strength".

Tesla is the primary goal of many new car-making forces, and now this benchmark is beginning to shine into reality.

"We can compare the development process of the new forces of building cars with Tesla. Tesla's sales have also skyrocketed from 20 18. In 20 14, Tesla sold 32,000 vehicles a year, which is similar to the sales of the new car-making forces. After Model 3 began to increase, Tesla's entire sector was revitalized. " Li Zheng, an insider of the new car-making forces, told Tanker.

Li Zheng believes that the next priority of the new car-building force will be to improve product strength and develop technologies such as autonomous driving. In addition to sales, the benchmarking of technical layout has also begun.

At the Beijing Auto Show in September, Weilai released NIO OS 2.7.0 and NOP navigation AIDS. NOP integrates car navigation, high-precision map and assisted driving, and can realize functions such as automatic downhill and automatic lane change. At the same time, according to informed sources, the chip developed by Weilai Yanzi will be announced in 2020 NIO DAY, which means that Weilai will become the second car company to independently develop autonomous driving chips after Tesla.

In terms of autonomous driving, Xpeng Motors has become a new force, manufacturing cars with the closest technical level to Tesla. On the function of automatic parking, Tucki has surpassed Tesla Model 3 in the number of automatic parking scenes and the recognition rate.

"From a technical point of view, the development stage of the new car-making force is equivalent to Tesla's 15- 17 years." Li Zheng said. However, compared with Tesla, which stood out in the field of smart cars at that time, the big environment faced by the new forces of building cars has been very different.

At the same time of the reversal of the new power of building cars, traditional giants and domestic independent brands have also entered the new energy vehicle market. Some industry views believe that the biggest reason for the rapid growth of new car-making forces is still the reversal of the domestic new energy vehicle market environment and the national policy dividend.

Zhang Ping, an observer in the automobile industry, believes that the new forces of building cars are growing, and the traditional giants are also growing. We can't isolate the new forces that build cars. In Zhang Ping's view, the sales of the new car-making forces are still not as good as those of traditional car companies, and it is far from relaxing.

"The new forces of building cars need to work harder than other car companies, otherwise the new forces of building cars will only be short-lived." Zhang Ping said.

"This year is the' year of life and death' for the new forces of making cars, and the new forces of making cars can't live three times." Whenever the new forces of car-making encounter a crisis, such a prediction will appear.

"Some people will say that this is because people are too harsh on new things, but historically, many car companies have died on these issues, and even some dead car companies have done better than the new forces." Zhou Liang, an automobile engineer, told Tanker.

The problem mentioned by Zhou Liang is the quality of the new force that makes cars. In 2020, while the delivery of new forces to build cars is gradually on the right track, quality problems have also surfaced. For example, since the beginning of this year, Li Yizhong has had six "broken shafts" in nine months.

"If there are some reasons for spontaneous combustion that can be attributed to the battery manufacturer, then the broken shaft cannot be said." Zhou Liang said.

Subsequently, on June 1 65438+1October1day, Li announced Li ONE's "hardware optimization and upgrade", which had hidden dangers. CEO Li Xiang publicly admitted for the first time that there was a design defect in the lower arm of Li ONE chassis suspension, but put forward the incredible concept of "hardware upgrade" to solve this problem. After five days of public opinion fermentation, Li finally relented and announced the recall of the 1 0469 Li ONE car produced before June 2020.

It seems that Li's "broken shaft" incident will have a far-reaching impact. "You always * * * can't sell many cars, all of a sudden withdraw half. The intermediate recall cost will have a great impact on the ideal financial situation. On the other hand, the ideal brand reputation will also be hit by this incident. "

In addition to short-term effects such as finance and brand, quality problems also reflect the defects of new forces in vehicle design and product quality control. In Zhou Liang's view, vehicle design and quality control can't be bought with money, and we can only accumulate experience by stepping on mines. For the new forces making cars, the cost of solving such problems is unimaginable. Traditional automobile manufacturers have invested in the field of automobile safety for decades, even hundreds of years.

In the automobile industry, quality is a problem that can never be ignored. In addition, there is no advantage in building new cars at the production end. The delivery of mass production has questioned the new forces of building cars, and this problem still exists today. "In 20 19 years, all new car manufacturers failed to deliver on time; It is likely that it will be difficult to deliver all on time in 2020. " Zhou Liang said.

Behind the slow delivery is a concentrated expression of a series of problems ignored by the new forces of building cars in the barbaric growth. Take Weilai as an example. Weilai originally planned to build its own factory in Jiading, Shanghai after listing, but due to the huge losses after listing, the plan to build its own factory fell through.

At present, Weilai is still manufactured by Jianghuai Automobile. After Tucki established its own Zhaoqing factory, it was in the mode of cooperative production and OEM. Weimar chose to build its own factory, and its ideal was also produced after the acquisition of Lifan Automobile. In the future planning, Weilai will continue to expand Hefei Jianghuai factory; Weimar will launch Xinghui Industrial Park jointly built with Hubei Xinghui in Huanggang to produce a new generation of 5G smart cars.

"Without its own independent factory, it means that the brand is subject to people, quality control is more difficult to do, and consumers are hard to trust. At present, the mass production of new cars is slow, and the quality of the cars manufactured frequently has problems, which is a crisis that can determine life and death for new car manufacturers. " Zhou Liang said.

In addition, external competition will further squeeze the living space of new car-making forces, regardless of their own problems.

"In the past two years, the new forces of making cars have not paid attention to traditional car companies. They feel that their transformation is slow and their model is not bright. But when these giants began to turn around, that kind of power was unstoppable by the new forces that built cars. Obviously, Weilai now has three cars and two models in Tucki. The expansion speed of this product lineup is not comparable to that of traditional giants. " Zhou Liang said.

At present, there is still a certain gap between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in terms of purchase cost and charging convenience, and the cake in the whole new energy vehicle market is not big enough.

The war between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will continue for decades, which is painful for people who have only established a new force to build cars for a few years, and victory is still far away.

In 2020, the government's thirst for energy security and strong support for the new energy industry will make China not only have a complete, efficient and large-scale supply chain, but also have the largest new energy vehicle consumption market in the world.

"More and more people realize that new energy vehicles or smart cars are not a simple hardware revolution, but a' hardware+software' revolution." In Zhang Chi's view, the last wave was that smart phones replaced black-and-white machines ten years ago, and smart cars replaced traditional fuel vehicles in the next decade. Smart car is an intelligent terminal, not only for driving, but also for interconnection and more applications.

In this revolution of the automobile industry, although it has only been established for a few years, its influence in the automobile industry is still limited. However, the breakthrough of "from 0 to 1" by the new car-making forces in just a few years has made people see the infinite possibility of "China speed".

However, it can not be ignored that there are still many problems in the development of the new car-making forces under the fanatical pursuit of capital, and whether these problems can be solved will be related to the future survival.

* The picture in this article comes from: Picture Network, based on VRF protocol.