China's foreign trade development prospects

The demographic dividend is coming to an end, and the prospect of China's foreign trade is not optimistic!

20 years of reform and opening up, China has developed into a big country of foreign trade and economic cooperation, but it is not yet a strong country of foreign trade and economic cooperation. In the new century, China's goal should be to develop from a large foreign trade and economic cooperation into a foreign trade and economic cooperation power. But compared with the world's trading powers, there are still many gaps.

China's share in world trade is relatively small. 1999 ranked in the world's top six countries in trade in goods, their exports accounted for the world's share of the following: the United States 12.4%, Germany 9.6%, Japan 7.5%, France 5.3%, the United Kingdom 4.8%, Canada 4.2%, and China is only 3.5%. Ranked in the world's top six countries in the trade in services, their trade in services exports accounted for the proportion of the world's trade in services exports, respectively: the United States 18.8%, the United Kingdom 7.6%, France 5.9%, Germany 5.7%, Italy 4.8%, Japan 4.5%, while China is only 2.0%.

From the structure of import and export commodities and trade structure, China's exports of commodities with higher technological content and value-added products accounted for a low proportion. The United States exports of machinery and equipment in its exports of all goods accounted for about 52%, 51% of Germany, Japan 69%, France 43%, Britain 48%, Italy 39%. China's mechanical and electrical products accounted for less than 40% of the share of export commodities, and most of them are labor-intensive, low value-added products. In addition, the ratio of trade in services to trade in goods in China is much lower than in the above countries.

From the capital flow situation, China's foreign capital inflow and foreign investment are smaller than the world's leading trade countries. 1999 inflow of foreign direct investment into the U.S. 2755 billion U.S. dollars, the U.S. foreign direct investment of 150.9 billion U.S. dollars; inflow of foreign capital into the United Kingdom 82.1 billion U.S. dollars, the United Kingdom's foreign direct investment of 1992 billion U.S. dollars; inflow of foreign capital into the German 26.8 billion U.S. dollars, the German foreign direct investment of 50.5 billion U.S. dollars; inflow of foreign capital into France 50.5 billion dollars; inflow of foreign capital into France 39.1 billion U.S. dollars, France's foreign direct investment of 107.9 billion U.S. dollars; inflow of foreign capital into the Netherlands 33.7 billion U.S. dollars, the Netherlands foreign direct investment of 45.8 billion U.S. dollars. China's per capita utilization of foreign capital scale compared with the above countries is a far cry.

From the point of view of the trade system and enterprise management mechanism, China and the countries in the forefront of world trade, compared to the lack of a set of relatively perfect economic and trade laws and regulations. Under the framework of the multilateral trading system, the tariff rates of these countries are relatively low, non-tariff measures are relatively transparent and stable, the implementation of national treatment of foreign investment, national enterprises are less protected by the national policy, the survival of the success or failure depends mainly on their own competitiveness. In the process of long-term development has formed a set of enterprise management mechanism and governance structure that can adapt to the competitive environment of the market economy.

China's comprehensive international competitiveness ranking lags behind the world level. From the comprehensive competitiveness reflected in domestic industrial development, internationalization, government management, financial services, infrastructure, enterprise management, scientific and technological strength, population quality and other indicators, the countries currently at the forefront of world trade also rank among the world's leading countries. And China's overall competitiveness currently only ranked 29th in the world, the individual rankings of my degree of internationalization ranked 20th, the level of financial services ranked 42nd, the state of infrastructure ranked 40th, the level of enterprise management ranked 30th, the strength of science and technology ranked 13th, the quality of the population ranked 24th, in general, seem to be relatively backward.

In recent years, China's export growth rate has slowed down, in addition to the Asian financial crisis and other external environmental impact, a very important reason is that so far China's foreign trade growth is still crude. From the current and future development trend, such a crude, quantitative expansion type of growth can not be maintained for a long time. Realizing the transformation from "big" to "strong" is a historic issue for the sustainable and healthy development of foreign trade and economic cooperation under the new situation. First of all, international economic and trade competition has become increasingly fierce, and the growth of exports, mainly of cheap manufactured goods, has been limited more by the size of the market. In the past few years, many of our export products have been targeted and encountered fierce competition and anti-dumping threats. Therefore, only by continuously upgrading the quality, grade and added value of export commodities is it possible to maintain and expand China's export market share. Secondly, China's coastal areas of the original low-cost advantage of labor and other factors is diminishing, some traditional labor-intensive and resource-based commodity export growth potential has been limited. Only by accelerating industrial technological progress, cultivating new competitive advantages, and increasing the technological and service content of export commodities can we maintain and strengthen the momentum of export-oriented economy in coastal areas. Thirdly, the main structure of China's foreign trade and economic cooperation is not reasonable enough, the competition of state-owned foreign trade enterprises is weak, and the potential of non-state-owned enterprises other than foreign-invested enterprises has not yet been realized. Only by vigorously promoting the reform of the foreign trade and economic cooperation system and the transformation of the business mechanism of enterprises can we optimize the structure of the main body of business and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all kinds of enterprises to participate in international economic and trade competition. Fourthly, the negative impact of the crude foreign trade growth on the environment is getting more and more serious, and will be increasingly constrained by the environmental protection requirements in international trade in the future. Only by improving the level of opening up to the outside world, more "go out" to use international resources, in order to alleviate the contradiction between export growth and the environment, resources, etc., to realize the sustainable development of foreign trade and economic cooperation.

With China's economic growth to bid farewell to the stage of shortage economy, the status of foreign trade, the role of foreign trade is no longer just the export of foreign exchange. Import and export growth must be coordinated with the macro-objectives of national economic development to maximize national income. Therefore, this requires enterprises to operate import and export must be centered on economic efficiency, foreign trade macro-control and management must ensure the realization of macroeconomic goals as the most basic requirements, relying on the optimization of the structure of export commodities, give full play to the comparative advantages and improve economic efficiency, to achieve greater development of foreign trade. From foreign trade and economic and trade power to foreign trade and economic and trade power, is to make China's foreign economic and trade to a new level, in the next five to ten years in the development of the national economy to continue to play an important role in promoting the key, but also China to cope with the challenges of economic globalization, to a more positive attitude to integrate into the world economy, and the need to strive for greater national interests.

China's basic policies to be adhered to as it moves toward becoming a foreign trade power: realizing the coordinated development of foreign trade and the national economy; striving to raise the level of utilized foreign investment; participating in the multilateral trading system along with strengthening regional and bilateral economic cooperation; developing trade in services; and setting up and perfecting a foreign economic and trade system in line with the rules prevailing in the international arena.

Targets for the Tenth Five-Year Plan to 2010

Focusing on the future international and domestic environments, the main targets for the development of China's foreign trade and economic cooperation during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period should be as follows: Merchandise imports and exports will continue to grow at a rate slightly higher than that of the national economy, and the structure and efficiency of the trade will be improved. The growth rate of commodity import and export continues to grow at a rate slightly higher than that of the national economy, the structure and efficiency are further improved, and the scientific and technological content and value-added of export commodities are significantly increased; the trade in services achieves faster growth, and the international competitiveness of key service industries is significantly enhanced; the field of utilizing foreign capital is further expanded, the technical level and scale of projects are improved, and the structure and regional distribution tend to be rationalized; the outward investment is steadily expanding, and the development and utilization of overseas resources and the processing trade are formed to a certain Foreign investment has expanded steadily, and the development and utilization of overseas resources and processing trade have formed a certain scale; the balance of current account income and expenditure has achieved a general balance, and the country's foreign exchange reserves and major foreign debt indicators have been maintained at a reasonable level. The following are the main indicators for China's foreign trade and economic development during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period: (1) The average annual growth rate of commodity import and export will be between 7.5% and 8.5%, and the total import and export amount will reach 670 billion to 700 billion U.S. dollars in 2005, of which the export will reach 340 billion to 360 billion U.S. dollars. The average annual growth rate of exports of electromechanical products will be around 13%, and the total exports of electromechanical products in 2005 will reach US$170-180 billion, with the proportion in the total exports of commodities increasing to around 50%; the average annual growth rate of exports of high-tech products will be above 15%, and the total exports in 2005 will be close to US$70 billion, with the proportion in the total exports of commodities increasing to around 50%. In 2005, the total export amount will be close to 70 billion dollars, and its proportion in the total export commodities will be increased to about 20%. (2) The average annual growth rate of actual utilization of foreign capital will be slightly higher than that of the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, and the scale of foreign direct investment in 2005 will reach 46-50 billion U.S. dollars. (3) The average annual growth rate of trade in services will be between 12% and 15%. The average annual growth rate of foreign engineering contracting and labor cooperation will be around 15%, and the turnover in 2005 will reach 26 billion-28 billion U.S. dollars.

During the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), China's foreign economic trade will still strive to maintain a sustained and stable growth trend. It is expected that by 2010, the total amount of merchandise import and export will reach 900 billion U.S. dollars, and the export will exceed 450 billion U.S. dollars; the proportion of exports of electromechanical products will be increased to 60%; and the proportion of exports of high-tech products will be increased to 30%. China's share in world merchandise trade will expand from the present 3.5% to about 3.8%, and the ranking of merchandise exports in the world will rise to the top 6; its share in world trade in services will expand from the present 1.8% to about 2.0%, and the ranking of service exports in the world will rise to the top 10; the scale of utilization of foreign capital will continue to maintain its position as the No. 1 developing country.

The realization of the above goals means that China's resource allocation and utilization efficiency will be greatly improved, the advantages of human resources will be better utilized, the international competitiveness of major industries and products will be significantly enhanced, enterprises will achieve faster technological progress and better economic benefits through participation in international competition, the stability of the RMB exchange rate will be given a more solid foundation, and the country's comprehensive national strength will be further strengthened. At the same time, China's open economy pattern will be basically established, and the foreign economic and trade management system adapted to the requirements of the socialist market economy and international rules will gradually be perfected. Foreign economic and trade will better play a driving role in the development of the national economy.

Basic Policy

Faced with the challenges brought about by changes in the world economic and trade environment in the 21st century, summarizing the lessons learned since the reform and opening up, and in order to realize the goal of building a foreign economic and trade powerhouse, our country should emphasize and adhere to the following basic policies in its foreign economic and trade work.

First, actively participate in the international division of labor and competition, develop an open economy, and realize the coordinated development of foreign trade and the national economy. In the context of economic globalization, external closure and fear of competition can only lead to greater disparities. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a sense of proactive participation in the international division of labor and competition, and to comprehensively enhance the international competitiveness of China's economy through the development of an open economy. The development of foreign trade and economic cooperation should serve the overall situation of national economic development, moderately ahead of the national economic growth, and accelerate the opening up of the central and western regions while maintaining the momentum of the development of the coastal region's export-oriented economy.

Second, efforts to improve the level of utilization of foreign capital, the implementation of long-term strategic cooperation with multinational capital is conducive to China's industrial upgrading and technological innovation. Attracting foreign direct investment with multinational corporations as the protagonists is an inevitable choice for developing countries to accelerate economic development and technological progress. We should correctly deal with the reality that after joining the WTO, multinational capital will enter our country in a big way, and utilize effective policies and legal means to make better use of the positive aspects of multinational corporations' investment and limit their negative aspects. With multinational corporations to establish long-term strategic cooperation and *** with the development of relations conducive to China's industrial upgrading and technological innovation.

Thirdly, participation in the multilateral trading system and the strengthening of regional and bilateral economic cooperation go hand in hand, promoting and complementing each other. Active participation in the multilateral trading system and the strengthening of regional and bilateral economic cooperation under the multilateral framework are important links in creating a favorable external environment for the development of foreign trade and economic cooperation. WTO rules should be understood and familiarized with, and an effective policy coordination mechanism should be established to safeguard China's rights and interests in foreign economic and trade activities using the relevant WTO rules. At the same time, great importance should be attached to regional and bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and neighboring countries and regions, and regional economic and trade integration at all levels should be vigorously promoted.

Fourthly, China should give better play to its comparative and competitive advantages, optimize the structure of its export commodities, and push forward the plan of developing trade through science and technology. Utilizing comparative and competitive advantages is the basic requirement for realizing sustained and effective growth of foreign trade and economic cooperation. We should be guided by the international market and continue to implement a series of policies conducive to optimizing the structure of export commodities. We will actively promote the action plan of "promoting trade through science and technology", introduce advanced technology and equipment, transform traditional export industries, cultivate new industries that adapt to the trend of contemporary scientific and technological progress, and develop the export of high-tech products. Strengthening support for foreign trade and economic development, such as policy-based export credit and insurance. Encourage the development and application of new trade methods such as e-commerce.

Fifth, vigorously develop trade in services, and further expand the opening-up space through "going out". The service industry and trade are the areas with the most growth potential in the future. We should take the opening up of the service industry as an opportunity to accelerate the development of trade in services and encourage the export of service trade in which China has an advantage. Policy coordination and guidance should be strengthened to steadily develop foreign contracted projects, labor export, design consulting and foreign economic and technical assistance. While maintaining the sustained growth of labor-intensive processing and export industries and creating more employment opportunities, we will support domestic enterprises with strength to "go out" in various forms and participate in the international division of labor and competition at a higher level.

Sixth, the establishment and improvement of the foreign economic and trade system in line with the prevailing international rules. In accordance with the requirements of the socialist market economy and China's commitment to join the WTO, the foreign economic and trade system will be further reformed, and a unified, stable, standardized and efficient mechanism for the management of foreign economic and trade and the promotion of services will be established. Accelerate the revision and improvement of foreign economic and trade regulations. Vigorously promote the strategic reorganization of state-owned foreign trade and economic cooperation enterprises, the formation of foreign trade and economic cooperation in the field of multiple ownership coexist, large, medium and small and domestic and foreign-funded enterprises **** the same development, complement each other, the structure of the main body of the diversified business.