How to transform and upgrade the global automobile industry? Electrification is the best choice for China, the United States, Japan and Europe.

The global automobile industry is in a deep transition period. The development process of greening, electrification, intelligence, networking and enjoyment is accelerating. The development of electric vehicles in China has also entered a period of structural adjustment, and the automobile market is undergoing tremendous changes.

Under this background, it is an important task for the industry to analyze and grasp the latest changing trends of the global automobile market and industry, further consider and determine the technical route of new energy vehicles, study the medium and long-term development strategy of the automobile industry, and explore the industry policies and enterprise strategies to deal with the current and future market changes.

At the 2020 China committee of 100 International Forum on Electric Vehicles, industry stakeholders from major countries in the world, such as China, Britain, France, the United States, and Japan, shared the latest policies, objectives, and inspirations for developing electric vehicles, promoting zero-emission transportation, and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, which enabled us to have a more comprehensive, in-depth and objective understanding of the development and latest trends of the global automobile and new energy automobile industries.

Chen Qingtai, Chairman of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100: It is estimated that the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed150,000 in 2030.

The rapid development of China's electric vehicle industrialization and the innovation of new enterprises represented by Tesla on the definition and concept of future vehicles have ignited the once-in-a-century automobile revolution. Electrification is just the tipping point. Along with the automobile revolution, there are energy revolution, new generation mobile communication, intelligent transportation and smart city. The compatible connection of these factors will make the future cars move towards electrification, greening, networking, intelligence and enjoyment, which will greatly change the world and benefit the society.

Chen Qingtai said that China's oil consumption has increased year by year, while its own crude oil has decreased year by year. The external dependence of 20 18 crude oil exceeds 70%, which has exceeded the warning line of energy security. However, at present, the number of cars per thousand people in China is only 185, and it will still be in the growth period for a long time to come. "To realize the dream of China/KLOC-0.4 billion entrance personal travel motorization, the realistic choice is electrification." ?

Globally, in 20 10, China took the lead in promoting new energy vehicles as a national strategy. At about this time, the California government began to implement the zero emission credit policy for automobiles. 20 16 European governments put forward a timetable to restrict the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, and 20 17 European union put forward stricter standards for automobile carbon dioxide emission, which forced the automobile industry to transform. ?

The transformation of automobile power technology was originally a normal process of technological progress and market promotion, but the governments of many countries have repeatedly intervened uncharacteristically, which has become the first driving force of this round of automobile power technology transformation. It can be predicted that by 2025, the cost performance of electric vehicles will exceed that of fuel vehicles, and the power generation cost of renewable energy such as solar energy and wind energy will be lower than that of fossil energy. The market will promote the development of electric vehicles and the transformation of energy structure with strong power.

Therefore, he thinks that * * * enjoys traveling and is expected to reconstruct urban traffic. A number of studies show that electrified, networked and intelligent electric vehicles will reduce the "person-kilometer cost" of * * * travel by about 40%. In the future, self-driving cars can move to the travel demand point by themselves to achieve seamless connection; People, cars and roads can enjoy traffic information in real time, which improves travel efficiency. With the development of * * * travel, it will become the largest single seller of automobile manufacturing enterprises.

However, it is a great challenge for traditional car companies to upgrade electric vehicles to a "powerful mobile intelligent platform" and become a high-tech product with electrification, electronization, internetization, intelligence and software definition. It is precisely because of this development trend and new opportunities that the new forces of building cars broke in. This has become a major feature and advantage that distinguishes China from other automobile producing countries. "Tesla is the first star in the world and there will be no latecomers."

Chen Qingtai said that it is estimated that the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed150,000 in 2030, and autonomous driving at different levels will be basically popularized, with the number of vehicles reaching 80 million. This prediction will come true, involving energy structure adjustment, smart grid construction, transportation infrastructure upgrade, new generation mobile communication support, industrial chain adjustment and transformation, standards and regulations adjustment, job transfer and so on. This is a great industrial revolution. It is necessary for the government to plan ahead, do a good job in top-level design, systematically consider automobiles, energy, communications, transportation and cities from the beginning, and achieve technical coordination, planning coordination, policy coordination, and regulatory coordination, and advance in an orderly manner. Among them, it is very important to break down barriers, open markets and strengthen interdisciplinary and cross-industry collaborative innovation.

In this sense, it is an important condition to formulate a scientifically demonstrated top-level design and timetable to give the market and society due expectations. "If we grasp it well, we may become winners!"

Patricia, a member of the California Energy Commission? Monaghan: Electrification is the only way for California to achieve carbon neutrality in 2045.

In the past 30 years, the California government has been promoting electrification. 1990, the first electric vehicle was launched here, and it was also the first region to adopt zero-emission related policies. ?

At present, the California government has set new goals in electrified transportation. In 2025, we hope to sell more electric vehicles and build 200 hydrogen refueling stations to support the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The goal is to achieve 100% clean electricity in 2045 and 60% in 2030. By the middle of this century, it is hoped that the emissions of fuel-fired vehicles will be minimized, and the goal is to achieve negative carbon emissions rather than positive growth in 2045.

In the past ten years, the development of electric vehicles has reduced California's greenhouse gas emissions by half, which is the best solution, and electrification is the only way for us to achieve the above goals. ?

California Energy Commission has been subsidizing schools to electrify school buses, and now there are 200 electric school buses. ? In terms of clean transportation, the California Energy Commission invests $829 million every year, first of all, to ensure that consumers and enterprises have enough opportunities to obtain electric vehicles at extremely low cost. By 2029, the goal set by California is that all vehicles used in public transportation systems will achieve zero emissions. "We also lobby some unreasonable systems with 29 States, hoping that the US government can make changes."

The number of electric vehicles in California has reached 8%, exceeding the average level of 2%, and even exceeding 15% in some areas. Patricia? Monaghan believes that more infrastructure is needed to further promote market development. ?

Director of the Automotive Industry and Next Generation Technology Office of the Manufacturing Industry Bureau of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan: By 2030, Japan's electric vehicle sales will account for 50-70% of new car sales.

Japan also has "four modernizations" in the transformation of automobile industry, which is referred to as CASE: networking, automation, service and electrification. ?

Naoko Yoshimura first introduced the connotation of networked car and mobile travel service, that is, car networking service. The progress of car networking is the fastest. According to relevant research, by 2025, intelligent networked vehicles will become the mainstream of electric vehicles. With the advent of the 5G era, networked cars can realize the interconnection between cars and everything data, and car networking can promote the birth of data services in all walks of life. Only when the travel service itself is equipped with the commercial product of automobile can the value be maximized.

Many car companies are developing different levels of autonomous driving technology. Yoshimura Zhitai believes that it is very difficult to promote autonomous driving technology from the social level because of its high cost and high promotion cost. Therefore, commercial vehicles including trains, buses, taxis and online car rental are the most suitable models for self-driving cars. This year, Japan plans to launch a mobile travel service demonstration project using autonomous driving technology.

Regarding the services in the four modernizations, Japan will focus on building a complete ecosystem of travel and society, which has four pillars: the first pillar is travel service, which will be used as an energy infrastructure to create the interaction between cars and families, as well as the interaction between cars and power grids; The second pillar is to make travel service a solution to urban chronic traffic problems; The third pillar is to use travel services to establish data collection IOT terminals, and further optimize the information management system through the big data collected by smart connected cars to create better travel services.

There are many obstacles to the promotion of electric vehicles. In order to implement the socialization of electric vehicles, Japan has put forward three solutions: one is to integrate with the power system; Second, integrate the operation of the fleet; Third, focus on building a battery ecosystem. ?

In order to promote the transformation of mobile travel as an energy infrastructure, Japan has formulated a long-term goal and strategic plan for the transformation to zero emission, and firmly implemented the goal of the Paris Agreement. The long-term goal is to further reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of each vehicle by 80% compared with the standards before the implementation of the Paris Agreement by 2050.

The policy goal by 2030 is to integrate and compare different types of electric vehicles and set their own parameters. Among them, different types of electric vehicles, including hybrid electric vehicles, are expected to account for 50%-70% of new car sales in 2030, of which hybrid electric vehicles account for 30%-40%.

Japan will implement various policies and incentives to improve automobile fuel economy. In order to achieve the goal of truly zero carbon emissions in 2030, various technologies have also adopted more inclusive policies. It is estimated that by 2025, pure electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles will occupy at least 20% market share.

Luc, president of the French Automobile Industry Alliance? Chatel: France will stop selling fossil fuel cars in 2040.

For the whole automobile industry, promoting electric vehicles has become an inevitable choice. From 2020, the average carbon dioxide emission of automobiles needs to be reduced from1.20g/km to 90g/km, which is the new standard of European emission regulations. ?

France has also passed a new motor vehicle management bill. By 2040, France will stop selling carbon-based fossil fuel vehicles, and major cities in France are becoming powerful government regulators. For example, Paris will completely ban the use of diesel in cars in 2024 and gasoline in 2030.

Major French automakers are competing for large-scale investment and launching cleaner and more environmentally friendly electric vehicles. In 20 19, the number of electric vehicles in France exceeded 100, and in 2020, it will reach 228 and 202 15. To achieve this goal, the market share of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Europe must reach 50%. In other words, under the automobile market scale of 6.5438+0.9 million vehicles, the number of electric vehicles needs to reach 6-7 million, and the number of plug-in hybrid vehicles needs to reach 4-5 million.

It is predicted that by 2050, the structure of the French automobile market will be pure electric vehicles accounting for 66%, hybrid vehicles accounting for 17% and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles accounting for 17%. ?

Luke. Chatel said that the traditional automobile industry is facing a critical period and needs to be transformed. The main market in the future will be the automobile industry market dominated by electric vehicles, which needs the participation of the whole industry and the strong support of the government.

Simon, deputy director of the policy theme of the 26 th United Nations Climate Conference Group of the British Cabinet? Sharp: The speed of industrial transformation depends on policies.

Zero-emission traffic has become an irresistible trend, but how fast will the transformation progress be? In fact, Britain can play a special role this year, because we will be the guest country and host country of the United Nations climate change-related negotiations. .

I think the speed of change depends largely on the policy and the history of our early automobile development. The development of automobiles is slower than that of horse-drawn carts, and the subsequent development is due to the government's policy support and encouragement.

At present, in the process of transition to new energy vehicles, policies still play a decisive role, and strong incentives can accelerate the growth of the market. In addition, policies will also affect investment in innovation and research and development.

The speed of global automobile industry transformation is faster than expected. Bloomberg predicted earlier that the market share of new energy vehicles will be 43% from 20 17 to 2020, but now, this figure has far exceeded 43%.

Britain hopes that the speed of transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry will double. "We hope to achieve the goal of zero emission of automobiles by 2040. There are no so-called hybrid cars, no so-called fuel cars, all pure electric cars, and the specific actions need to be explained in detail.

With the implementation of policies and subsidies, it is believed that consumers will have more and more confidence, and believe that the future of electric vehicles will be better than that of fuel vehicles. The sales volume of electric vehicles in Britain ranks sixth in the world, which increased by 50% last year, accounting for 6% of all new car sales. At the same time, the charging infrastructure is also expanding and the cost is gradually decreasing.

Simon? Sharp believes that industrial transformation cannot be completed alone, and only international cooperation can promote the further development of technology. At the same time, it is necessary to unify the standards, so that countries with relevant policies can form a joint force and achieve a better guiding role. In the period of transformation and expansion, feedback can be strengthened to make small-scale actions have greater impact, further affect the direction of policy, financing and investment, and ultimately affect the development of technology. ?

It is believed that a large number of electric vehicles will be on the road in 2030 under the strong combination of relevant incentives from China and the European Union.

Raul, Secretary General of the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism? Blanco: Spain strives to achieve zero emissions in 2040.

Spain is the second largest automobile producer in Europe and the fourth largest automobile parts producer in Europe. In the future development of electric transportation, Spain hopes to become the representative of Europe and produce more low-emission cars.

According to Raul? Blanco said that Spain promised to achieve zero emissions before the EU by 2040, that is, 10 years ahead of schedule. By 2030, it is hoped that 5 million electric vehicles will be on the road in Spain, which means that 10% of the total car ownership in the EU will be replaced by electric vehicles. Based on this, Spain will invest 654.38 billion euros in the next four years to promote the development of electric vehicles. ?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.