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What is the current situation of China's financial industry?
Judging from the current situation in China, state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises have accumulated certain financial risk factors. But the basic factors of the healthy development of foreign-funded enterprises and joint-stock enterprises have not changed; Foreign investment has also maintained a relatively stable growth, with more and more investment projects, most of which are long-term investments, and foreign investors will not give up easily. Therefore, it is inferred that China will not have a financial crisis similar to that of other East Asian countries in three to five years. But the real danger is that three to five years later, under the pressure of the International Monetary Fund and the United States, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries will completely open their economic and financial systems, carry out thorough reforms, and establish an advanced system that is fully in line with international standards, thus creating enormous competitive pressure on China. For example, after World War II, the United States took over Japan and Germany and imported the American economic system, which made the economies of Japan and Germany develop rapidly and gradually left China behind at the same starting line. Therefore, China must seize the favorable opportunity for countries to enter the adjustment period after the financial turmoil, reform the financial and foreign exchange management system as soon as possible, improve banking services, further enhance export competitiveness, attract foreign investment to take root in China, and keep China's economy in real high-quality adjustment and growth. Because to really avoid the crisis, we must ensure the health of basic economic factors. In order to maintain an actual high-quality and high-speed growth, China must break the traditional development model in the past, that is, develop the economy-increase bank loans-state-owned enterprises-expand production-increase employment-and achieve economic growth. Chinese mainland's economy has formed two different parts, one is the part of state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises; The other is foreign-funded enterprises and joint-stock enterprises. The latter has benefited from advanced systems and preferential policies in recent five or six years and developed quite rapidly. Since foreign capital entered China, it has introduced the most advanced technology and management in the most advanced fields in China, and established enterprises that are basically in line with the world economy. Foreign-funded enterprises and some joint-stock enterprises have become the healthiest and most dynamic parts of China, and are the source of sustained economic growth in China. Now China is entering a critical moment. With the completion of some large-scale infrastructure construction, the "hardware" part of China's investment environment has been gradually improved, and the external conditions for China to attract foreign investment are getting better and better. So far, China has the cheapest labor force, the most land (for developing manufacturing base), a huge market and the most attractive foreign investment destination. Now it is "everything is ready, only the east wind is needed". What is the east wind is China's policy. Whether the policy is successful or not depends not on reducing the labor cost and land cost, nor on whether there is a market in China, but mainly on whether the "transaction cost" of foreign investors investing in China can be reduced. "Transaction cost" is different from physical cost. Physical costs, such as the cost of labor, land and capital, can be determined according to the supply and demand of a country. But "transaction cost" is an artificial cost, which can be high or low, but it cannot be avoided. When doing business, it may not be easy to ignore it, but it will play a decisive role in the final success. In China, the transaction cost is very high, which is mainly reflected in the services provided by the government, accounting, law, banks and capital markets. There are many artificial obstacles for government departments to get through, and banks and lawyers can't meet the needs of the international market economy at all, all of which increase the "transaction cost" in the China market. Foreign investors really want to invest in China, but they all think it is not easy to invest in China, so they take a wait-and-see attitude. The high "transaction cost" in China market mainly exists in the field of financial services. The main problem facing China at present is the financial industry. Therefore, it is suggested that China should adopt a limited and controlled financial opening policy at this stage, including opening loan business to foreign banks and allowing foreign-funded enterprises to trade in US dollars. On the one hand, it can show foreign investors China's determination to open its financial sector, and on the other hand, it can effectively guard against the risks of financial opening.
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