China's economic development trend

In the face of the current complex economic situation at home and abroad, there are both bullish and negative views on the future development of China's economy. The fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed due to new changes in the international and domestic situation, and the momentum of economic growth remains strong. We need to address the outstanding contradictions in economic operation, grasp the direction, strength and rhythm of macro-control, and promote economic growth to continue to develop in the expected direction of macro-control.

Currently China's overall economic development trend is good, economic growth from policy stimulus to independent growth in an orderly manner, continue to develop in the direction of macroeconomic control expectations. At the same time, the economic operation is also faced with high prices, economic growth slowdown, structural adjustment pressure to increase the challenges. In response to the outstanding contradictions in economic operation, to grasp the direction, strength and rhythm of macro-control, not only to bring down the rate of price increases, but also not to make the economic growth rate of large fluctuations, and take advantage of the favorable opportunity to promote economic structural adjustment, and deepen the reform of key areas and key links, consolidate the momentum of economic development.

A

Economic growth has slowed down, but is still in a stable and relatively fast growth range

The current momentum of economic growth is still strong, and the annual economic growth rate will still be higher than 9%

Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth has been stable in general, the rate of price increase is generally controllable, and structural adjustment is actively advancing, so that the overall momentum of economic development is good.

First, economic growth is generally stable. The first half of the economic growth rate than the first half of last year has slowed down, but still in a stable and relatively fast growth range. The role of domestic demand has increased significantly, private investment to maintain a higher rate of increase in the total retail sales of consumer goods growth stabilized at a high level. The moderate slowdown in economic growth, both the impact of the global economic slowdown, but also China's initiative to control and market demand changes in the combined effect of the overall macro-control in line with the expected goals.

Secondly, the rate of price increase is generally controllable. Although the year-on-year rate of increase in food and housing prices remains high, the rate of price increases tends to converge, and the momentum of price increases has been initially controlled.

Thirdly, structural adjustment has been actively promoted. In terms of demand structure, while the contribution of investment and exports to economic growth declined, the contribution of final consumption to economic growth increased. In terms of production structure, agricultural production inputs have increased, industrial production has grown steadily, strategic emerging industries have developed faster, and modern service industries such as modern logistics, software, information services, and cultural creativity have developed favorably. In terms of income structure, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents has grown faster, financial investment in social security, education and healthcare has increased significantly, and the transfer income of urban and rural residents has increased significantly.

On the whole, there are more favorable conditions for maintaining stable and rapid economic growth and controlling the momentum of price increases in the future, and the fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed due to new changes in the international and domestic situations, and the impetus for economic growth remains strong. Driven by the growth of investment in infrastructure such as water conservancy and livelihood projects such as guaranteed housing, industrial transfer and the development of strategic emerging industries, the rate of investment growth will remain at a high level; final consumption will maintain a relatively fast rate of growth in the face of improved employment conditions, sustained wage increases, and increased income and consumption capacity of both urban and rural residents; the rate of export growth will decline due to the impact of the slowdown in the global economy, but will still return to the normal level. normal level, the annual economic growth rate will still be higher than 9%. With the effect of prudent monetary policy to further show, the growth of aggregate social demand slowed down, coupled with food and the supply of major industrial products is relatively abundant, the tailing factor gradually weakened, as well as price stabilization measures are gradually put in place, the rate of increase in prices in the next few months will be reduced.

Two

The world economic recovery process is difficult and zigzagging, and unstable and uncertain factors are increasing

With the expansion of the total economy, it will be more difficult to maintain China's economic growth in a longer period of time

The world economic recovery process is difficult and zigzagging, and unstable and uncertain factors are increasing. The inherent conditions for China's economic development are relatively more favorable, but still face more contradictions, highlighted by high prices, slowing economic growth, and increasing pressure for structural adjustment.

First, prices are running high. Because of the factors driving price increases in the short term is difficult to eliminate, food, housing prices are still at a high year-on-year rate of increase in labor wages and other factors of rising cost pressure will exist for a long time, in the next period of time to curb the task of price increases is still very difficult.

Second, the economic growth rate slowed down. From the point of view of investment demand, since this year, the total planned investment in new projects has dropped significantly. From the final consumption point of view, by the automobile, housing and other consumer hotspots cooling impact, coupled with the expiration of some of the policies to stimulate consumption withdrawn, consumption of economic growth of the pulling effect will also be weakened. From the point of view of external demand, the global economic slowdown and export enterprises production, capital, exchange rate costs and other factors superimposed, making the export growth rate showed a slowdown.

Third, the pressure of structural adjustment increases. From the demand structure, the final consumption of economic growth is still lower than the contribution rate of investment. From the production structure, some of the high energy-consuming industry production growth, local power supply and demand is tight, energy saving and emission reduction task is very serious. From the point of view of income structure, the growth of financial income and enterprise profit is still significantly higher than the growth of urban and rural residents' income. Structural imbalance makes short-term and long-term problems intertwined, the total balance and structural contradictions superimposed on each other, increasing the difficulty of macro-control.

Meanwhile, affected by financing costs, rising prices of raw materials, rising wages, rising exchange rates and other factors, some enterprises are experiencing greater difficulties in production and operation, and economic benefits are declining. The real estate market turnover shrinks, the growth rate of housing completion declines, but most of the city housing prices are still at a high level, and the game between buyers and sellers puts the market in a stalemate.

Three

Taking full account of the impact of the domestic and international situation on the real economy, as well as the lagging and cumulative effects of the policy, to enhance the policy targeting, flexibility and foresight