How does the three-child policy affect the property market?

Industry: Long-term positive, this type of apartment will become more popular in the future

On May 31, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to further optimize the fertility policy and implement the policy of allowing a couple to have three children and supporting support measures.

my country's birth rate has "fallen for the fourth consecutive time". The per-household population in Guangzhou last year was 2.22. Starting from November 2011, all parts of my country began to fully implement the "two-child policy"; by December 2013, my country began the era of the independent two-child policy; In October 2015, the universal two-child policy was finally rolled out.

According to data released by the seventh national census, the number of births in my country in 2020 was 12 million, a decrease of 2.65 million or 18% compared with the number of births in 2019.

Since 2017, my country’s birth population has dropped for four consecutive years.

According to statistics, the population aged 15 to 59 currently accounts for 63.35% of the total population, a decrease of more than 40 million people compared with the sixth census, and the proportion dropped by 6.79%.

Even if the retirement age is extended to 65, the working-age population will decrease by more than 31 million.

Population aging is already a trend.

For families, data from the seventh national census released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the proportion of small families is increasing. The average population per household nationwide in 2020 is 2.62 people, 0.5 people less than in 2010.

In Guangzhou, the average population per household in 2020 was only 2.22 people.

In the sixth national census, the average population per household in Guangzhou was 2.73 people, 0.48 less than the 3.21 people in the fifth national census in 2000.

This is equivalent to a further decrease of 0.53 people in Guangzhou's per household population in the seventh census.

The liberalization of the three-child policy will increase the demand for home purchases in the long run. According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, the liberalization of the two-child policy will indeed promote a rebound in the number of births in the short term.

The proportion of "children" increased from about 30% in 2013 to about 50% in 2017.

He believes that the biggest impact on the real estate industry is the net population growth rate. The previous liberalization of the two-child policy also had a direct impact on real estate through the increase in demand for home purchases.

The liberalization of the three-child policy will generate new real estate demand in the long run, but it will not reverse the real estate trend.

A survey conducted by Shell Research Institute based on 35 first-tier and new first-tier cities as a research sample shows that currently two-bedroom apartments are the main transaction type.

The Northeast region represented by Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang has a significantly higher proportion of two-bedroom transactions.

In first-tier cities represented by Beijing and Shanghai, the proportion of two-bedroom apartment transactions is also relatively high. The main reason is that due to the pressure of home purchase, the demand side is more willing to choose small apartments with "high unit price and low total price".

In addition to two-bedroom units, three-bedroom units follow closely. Among the 35 sample cities, cities such as Foshan, Nanchang and Changsha have a higher proportion of three-bedroom units. In addition to being affected by the supply side, the pressure on home purchases in these cities

relatively low.

The demand for improved large apartments will increase. Although in the second-hand housing market, two-bedroom transactions account for a relatively high proportion, what more home buyers want most is a three-bedroom apartment.

According to a report released by the Shell Research Institute, 47.97% of respondents said that a three-bedroom apartment is the most ideal living situation.

Zhao Zhuowen believes that the introduction of the three-child policy will be a boon to the real estate industry.

With the current relaxation of the three-child policy, there has been a long-term demand for larger homes.

Zhang Dawei also said that judging from the impact on the property market after the implementation of the "two-child" policy in the past, the demand for improved housing has the most direct impact, followed by housing in school districts.

Therefore, benefiting from changes in family structure, the demand for larger homes may increase to a certain extent, and children's education will also create demand for housing in school districts.

"But we should also see that most of the families who are willing to have children and can afford to raise three children are families with sufficient housing conditions. Therefore, the demand for new large-sized apartments in the future will not be very large. Those who just need to live in their own homes will not

Small and medium-sized units still dominate the real estate market, especially in the context of high property prices," Zhao Zhuowen said.