When the tide of car price reduction is useless, canceling the purchase restriction is the final answer?

On March 6th, Hubei Province granted subsidies related to automobile consumption, and the tide of price reduction officially began. With the tide of price reduction fermenting in the whole country, the related effects are gradually emerging.

On March 17, china automobile dealers association issued a document pointing out that the wave of price reduction may trigger a series of problems affecting the orderly development of the automobile market;

On March 23rd, China Automobile Industry Association said that lowering the inventory price and recovering the cost appropriately are normal operation measures, but they should not be reduced to price war.

As time went into April, the dust of price reduction tide effect settled in March, and the early warning index of dealer inventory of automobile distribution association was 62.4%, up 4.3% from February. The Federation predicts that the sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March will be 6.5438+0.59 million, which is the same as that in March 2022. The sales data of major new energy mainstream car companies show that the new energy vehicles are selling better and better, while the traditional models that mainly participate in the price reduction tide are very quiet.

"The result of the price reduction tide is already obvious, and it doesn't matter whether it ends now." Senior media people who participated in the April 1 Hundred People Forum on Electric Vehicles commented on this. At the scene of the day, many car company leaders talked about the related topics of price reduction tide, especially the conclusion of the CEO of Deep Blue Automobile: the price war in the industry has basically ended, but it has not become the focus of the industry, nor has it been further spread and fermented in the follow-up like Wang Chuanfu and Yu Chengdong's views.

In the quarter just past 2023, in the main line of economic recovery, the biggest action was undoubtedly the automobile field. From June 5438+ 10, to February, to March, the government began to subsidize, but the expectation of automobile consumption growth has not been essentially released.

Hangzhou's exploration of lifting the purchase restriction has aroused new splash. In fact, it is meaningless to make new adjustments in price. Unless the head car companies, Tesla or BYD take the initiative to set off a new round of peaks, they have no reason and logic to cut prices. The whole automobile consumption market is watching, and even many people who buy cars in the tide of price reduction feel new anxiety.

Growth cannot depend on prices, and growth cannot depend on policies such as subsidies. In other words, in the existing gameplay, there are not many new good ways to rely solely on enterprises. However, while most consumers were watching, a news item from Hangzhou rushed to the hot search, which was related to the use and consumption of cars.

On March 3 1 day, the day before the forum of 100 people for electric vehicles was held, the relevant person in charge of the Hangzhou Municipal Transportation Bureau said that Hangzhou was exploring the cancellation of the "double limit", and the restrictions on the purchase of passenger cars on the ground and road restrictions caused a thousand waves.

Restricted purchase and restricted purchase are related policies implemented in many cities. It can be seen that there are many urgent expressions of potential consumers in the comment area below such policy adjustment news in various places. This is an online view, and there are corresponding expressions in reality. 2065438+On June 6th, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a plan to loosen the restrictions on automobiles and other aspects, and the related topics of automobile restrictions can always lead to extensive discussions.

Of course, people are most concerned about whether it is feasible and promising for Hangzhou to cancel the double limit this time, and whether it can trigger policy changes in other regions.

Is it feasible and expected? Judging from the current data, we can have strong confidence in it.

On may 5, 20 14, Hangzhou began to implement double-lane restrictions on passenger cars. In that year, according to the statistics of relevant media, Hangzhou ranked second among the "Top Ten Blocked Cities in China", with the congestion delay index of 2. 10, and the average delay time and speed were 14.47 minutes and 19.8 1 km/h respectively.

In 20 15, the Hangzhou index was 1.98, ranking fourth in China in the data jointly released by Gaode Map and China expressway Traffic Broadcasting.

20 16 years, with an index of 1.88, ranking eighth; 20 17, Hangzhou ranked 48th; 20 18 Hangzhou index 1.65, ranking 35th.

In different data dimensions, Hangzhou was once rated as the second most blocked city in China. For example, in 20 16, the urban traffic delay index was 2.0 1, and now it has dropped to about 1.6.

In addition, referring to the news about the Smart Expressway in Hangzhou in recent years, with the continuous improvement of the Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo Smart Expressway, the average speed of the road in any test section has increased by 8%, the capacity has increased by 20%, the road congestion time has decreased by 10%, the road traffic accidents have decreased by 10%, and the rescue time has shortened by 10%. Among them, in addition to the reasonable adjustment of roads, the integration of more big data, and the application of smart devices, auto companies have also secretly helped. For example, Geely Automobile entered the era of making cars 3.0 in this period, which coincided with the rapid development of systems such as the Internet of Vehicles. Geely has also introduced the functions of properly adjusting vehicle speed and driving state according to road conditions in the ePro scheme of PHEV technology, but this has not been popularized in the whole industry.

Road adjustment, regulation adjustment and smart big data adjustment have changed Hangzhou from a highly congested city to a less congested city. Therefore, based on this performance, exploring the cancellation of the double limit is the result of the medium and long-term development strategy. In addition to Hangzhou, many key cities are seeking relevant exploration. For example, Nanchang officially canceled the current motor vehicle tail number policy in June 5438+February 2020. 1 Years later, Nanchang was released in September 2022, becoming the first city in China to change the traffic congestion index from "restricted line" to "unlimited line".

It can be seen that based on the exploration of some key cities and the direction of the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in promoting the relaxation of policies such as car purchase restrictions in recent years, there are opportunities for loosening policies such as purchase restrictions. As for whether it can be gradually extended to the whole country, it actually depends on the exploration effect of cities like Hangzhou. If we can produce cost-effective solutions based on intelligence and big data, the natural future can be expected.

Can canceling the double limit really stimulate the scale of automobile consumption? Traffic congestion is easing, and the growth of automobile sales has also changed.

Summarize the automobile sales performance of Zhejiang Province from 2065438+09 to 2022 as follows:

Data source: Dashi data shows that in 20 19, the annual automobile sales in Zhejiang Province was1650,000, ranking third in the country after Guangdong and Jiangsu, which was lower than that in 20 18. In 20 19, the automobile sales volume in Hangzhou was 458,200, which was lower than that in 20 18, ranking eighth in China.

Data source: According to the insurance data of the Ministry of Public Security, in the first half of 2020, Zhejiang's automobile sales volume was 569,300, ranking fourth in the country after Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong, and Hangzhou's sales volume in the first half of the year was 6,543,800+042,600, still ranking eighth in the country;

Data source: According to the upper limit data of the Ministry of Public Security, in 20021year, the annual automobile sales in Zhejiang Province was 6.5438+0.652 million, and Hangzhou still ranked eighth in the country with a sales volume of 434,000.

In 2022, the annual sales volume of automobiles in Zhejiang Province was 65,438+0,865,438+0.8 million, and that in Hangzhou was 506,900.

According to public data, with the application of intelligent transportation, road congestion is decreasing, but the growth of automobile sales is not particularly obvious.

Automobile consumption is a whole project, involving local income, economic performance, infrastructure construction performance, urban planning performance, population base performance and so on. There are checks and balances between the two, so only from the current series of data, the cancellation of the double limit is stimulating to the automobile market, at least better than the price reduction tide in March, but the degree of stimulation is still difficult to estimate. Referring to the data given by CITIC Securities when Guizhou released the car purchase restriction in 20 19, it is estimated that the release of the car purchase restriction will release an increase of 654.38+10,000 cars. Combined with the permanent population of about 6 million in Guiyang, we can actually see the approximate consumption potential.

At present, the typical cities that restrict purchases are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Shenzhen. The per capita resources are relatively fixed and limited, so from the perspective of canceling the double-limit policy, the growth space is relatively limited. In addition, this wave of price cuts has also made people see that consumers have a heavy wait-and-see mood in the face of a large number of new changes, so it is also possible that even if the double-limit policy is fully liberalized at a speed exceeding expectations, it will face a high probability of being bought by the crowd and encountering more wait-and-see.

Policies stimulate growth, but a large number of sales should not be saved from the tide of price reduction, and the direction behind it is relatively clear, which is to promote the circulation and growth of the automobile market and drive the growth of the entire automobile market. However, in the fermentation of this price reduction tide, there has also been a new information increment, that is, the excessive switching of the national six A, which requires more time and people to transform.

At the 2023 Blue Book Forum of Automobile Circulation Industry, Shen Jinjun, President of china automobile dealers association, said: Relevant policies to extend the sales period of "National Six A" models will be announced in the near future. After the switch of the National Six B, the sales period of the National Six A model is extended, the relevant documents will be issued soon, and the boots will land soon.

A number of online public data show that there are about 2 million national six A emission models in the automobile market to be digested. According to the original national policy, all of them need to be licensed before July 1, otherwise they cannot be sold.

What is the number of 2 million to digest? This is a problem.

As early as the beginning of the price reduction tide in Hubei in early March, we have preliminarily verified this point. First of all, in Hubei Province, where the price reduction tide began, the mainstream models subsidized by Dongfeng have already completed the switch of national six B emissions. As early as 20 16, 12, the emission schemes of National VI A and National VI B have appeared in the documents of the Ministry of Environmental Protection. July 2020 1 country of implementation ⅵA, July 2023 1 country of implementation ⅵ b. There is a three-year transition period from country six A to country six B. At the same time, the vast majority of domestic car companies basically participated in the drafting of the national six emissions. In other words, seven years ago, the vast majority of car companies already knew about the switching of national six B emissions in 2023.

For several well-known models in this price reduction tide, they came out as early as the end of 2065438+2009 and in 2020. Shenlong Automobile (Peugeot, Citroen) has already given the products of Guoliu B to market and promote in advance. So is Honda. All new cars listed in 2022 can find the information of changing the country's six B power. Also in 2020, Dongfeng Nissan has also begun to switch the national six B emission power in advance.

Volkswagen also started to switch in 2020, and even Skoda completed the switch in 65438+2023 10. Geely's new National Sixth B product was released in June 2020, and even Great Wall Motor began to declare pickup truck models that meet the national sixth B emission in June 2065438+2009.

Basically, all the mainstream brands are laid out in advance on the National Six B, so it is not difficult to answer who will digest the two million National Six A models.

Among them, the domestic Fiat Chrysler was abandoned. In early 2023, Jeep Gladiator reduced its price by 654.38+0.2 million due to emission restrictions, as well as the guide and free light. However, most of the publicity materials of car companies only show the words that meet the national six emission standards, without specifying whether it is national six A or national six B. Many people on the Internet also started the discussion on the authenticity of national six B after buying a car, because many people found the relevant information. It will be determined when the vehicle is purchased and licensed.

So, if the information to be digested is true. That is either the inventory of some models that are not very good to sell on the market; Either many car companies said in the propaganda that they are all in country six B, but they are still producing models in country six A, and they want to complete the promotion before the switch.

The above two kinds, no matter which one, actually represent relatively backward product strength or technical strength. Therefore, from the market point of view, whether it is necessary to stimulate and save such sales is worth discussing.

Of course, we won't see any definite answer in front of us. This answer may appear around July 2023 1. Due to the huge number of cars that do not meet the rules, their flow direction will naturally become more obvious. Of course, if the postponement strategy comes true, that is another topic.

This article comes from Luca Auto, the author of Easy Car, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author if reproduced in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.