China as a textile industry as a large country, how to seek breakthroughs transformation and upgrading

Overview analysis of the development of the textile industry

China's textile industry is an industry handed down from ancient times, has been inherited for thousands of years, after the reform and opening up, China's textile industry has also entered a period of development, after decades of development, the textile industry and its upstream and downstream development is also very obvious.

Due to the global economic weakness, insufficient demand in the international market, China's traditional competitive advantages further weakened, trade friction has intensified and other factors leading to poor export situation. Despite the various challenges facing the development of the export market, but China's textile industry in the national economy to maintain a stable position, cloth production is a growing trend, the current share of China's textile industry in the world textile and clothing trade is still increasing, the industry's new economy has also shown great vitality.

Textile industry revenue, total profit analysis and forecast

According to the latest statistics of the "Cotton Textile Industry Production and Sales Demand Forecast and Transformation and Upgrading Strategy Analysis Report" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, China's textile enterprises above designated size in 2016 realized a sales revenue of 4.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%; in 2017, the sales revenue reached 3.80 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.08%. It is expected that the sales revenue of China's textile industry will reach 3.88 trillion yuan by 2018, with an average compound annual growth rate of about 2.84% in the next five years (2018-2022), and the sales revenue of China's textile industry will reach 4.34 trillion yuan in 2022.

In terms of total profit, the total profit of China's above-scale textile enterprises reached 219.41 billion yuan in 2016, an increase of 1.23% year-on-year; in 2017, the total profit reached 197.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.92% year-on-year. We expect that the total profit of China's textile industry will reach RMB200.8 billion in 2018, with a CAGR of about 2.95% in the next five years (2018-2022), and the total profit of China's textile industry will reach RMB225.6 billion in 2022.

Analysis of the revenue of each textile subsector

The textile subsector, 2017

In 2017

and 2018Q1, the revenue of each subsector continued to grow faster, mainly due to the following reasons: ① January-April 2018 export data continued to be good. ② The development of Xinjiang enjoys the support of multiple preferential policies such as cotton subsidies, freight subsidies, etc., and the enterprises laid out in Xinjiang benefit from the subsidy advantage and the market competitiveness of their products. ③ in the end of four batches of environmental protection inspections, printing and dyeing plate to production capacity results are significant, environmental protection normalization background, the leading "left for the king". ④ Under the cost-plus pricing model, cotton prices have remained high and oscillating since 2017,

Yarn price increases have slowed down and have a certain lag. However, due to the impact of foreign exchange losses, the growth rate of net profit on a net basis remained positive, but the growth range shifted downward.

National retail sales of apparel, footwear, hats, needles and textiles

Total retail sales of consumer goods in 2017 amounted to RMB 3,662.2 billion, up 10.2% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above the limit of 16,061.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%. Among the social consumer goods for the year, consumption upgrading goods grew faster, with communication equipment, sports and recreation goods and cosmetics growing by 11.7%, 15.6% and 13.5% respectively. As for the retail of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles amounted to 145.57 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, which was lower than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period of 10.2%.

From 2012-2017, China's clothing, shoes, hats, needlework category retail has been to maintain a steady growth trend, in 2017 the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needlework category amounted to 145.57 billion yuan, compared with 977.8 billion yuan in 2012, an increase of 477.9 billion yuan, it is expected that the national consumption of clothing, shoes, hats, needlework category in 2018 will continue to maintain a steady trend in the long. The growth rate will also remain stable, and it is expected that the national retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles will reach 1523.1 billion yuan by 2018.

Analysis of the current situation of the development of the textile industry

Cost advantage is no longer

In recent years, China's textile industry costs rose significantly, the cost advantage is no longer. China's textile industry is facing four major high costs, the first is the cost of labor. With the demographic dividend of China's cheap labor far away, Southeast Asia and other places the rise of the textile industry, the foreign environment to the domestic textile enterprises has brought a serious challenge. In the developed countries "re-industrialization" and developing countries to speed up the industrial process of the double squeeze, Asia, Africa, developing countries have a clear advantage in labor costs; China's textile industry is weakening the international comparative advantage. Next are: energy costs, transportation costs and environmental governance costs.

Lack of professionals

Textile workers are scarce year by year, skilled labor is in short supply. Accompanied by social transformation, the overall cultural level of the masses, the young generation is less willing to engage in textile and other skilled trades, workers are no longer the first choice of youth employment, textile factories are not enough situation.

Textile enterprises lack of innovation, textile designers lack of creativity and imagination. Most of the textile enterprises are foundry model, the main profit of the finished product is attributed to the textile designers. Domestic textiles are less likely to be recognized by the market and thus given a higher price. Enterprises produce low value-added products, mostly relying on "thin margins" to achieve economies of scale.

Low-end product overcapacity

China's textiles and clothing is traditionally low-priced exports to dominate the international market, although the export volume is very large, but the added value of the product is obviously low. At present, China's textile industry, the effective supply of high-end products is insufficient, low-end products there are phases, structural overcapacity. It is expected that the textile industry's supply-side reform or will continue to eliminate backward production capacity, especially in the context of high labor costs, low value-added products in the future will be more limited space for survival.

Analysis of the development trend of the textile industry

1, favorable policies

September 28, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Textile Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)". The Plan proposes to improve the quality and efficiency of development as the center, to promote the main line of supply-side structural reform, to increase varieties, improve the quality, create a brand of "three products" strategy as the focus, to enhance the industry's innovation capacity, optimize the industrial structure, to promote intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, the formation of new momentum for development, to create a new advantage in competition, to promote the The industry is moving towards the middle and high end, and initially build a strong textile country. The Plan puts forward specific tasks in six aspects, including enhancing industrial innovation capability, vigorously implementing the "three products" strategy, promoting textile intelligent manufacturing, accelerating green development process, promoting regional coordinated development, and enhancing the comprehensive strength of enterprises. As a special plan to guide the development of the textile industry in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the Plan will promote the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry and create new competitive advantages.

2, "Internet + textile" new model

The textile industry is trapped in the threat of stagnant sales, the industry through the application of the "Internet +" model, can produce a greater change. On the one hand, the industry can use the Internet to establish a direct sales platform to face the end customer, and at the same time can be the first time to obtain direct feedback from customers on the products produced in order to carry out a timely strategy to move forward. On the other hand, based on the Internet platform of big data technology is equal to the enterprise, can better establish the relevant early warning model, analyze the product supply and sales trends and customer preference fluctuations, in order to be able to grasp the business opportunities in a timely manner, timely divestment of defective products. In addition, the continuous development of the Internet can effectively improve the efficiency of enterprise management, through the streamlined operation of production, finance, after-sales management, strengthen the enterprise organization and management.

3, regional industrial restructuring

"One Belt, One Road", Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Cooperative Development, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the implementation of the three major strategies for the promotion of coordinated development of textile regions to provide new opportunities. Construction of the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Xinjiang, as well as support for the development of textile and garment industry in Xinjiang to promote the implementation of a series of policies will promote the development of the textile industry in Xinjiang to a new level. Promote the construction of new urbanization, especially to guide 100 million people in the central and western urbanization, will enhance the development of textile industry in the central and western endogenous momentum. The adjustment of the global textile division of labor system and trade system to speed up the change, will promote the enterprise more effective use of the two markets, two kinds of resources, more active and proactive "go out", to enhance the internationalization of the textile industry, to create a new situation of open development of the textile industry.

4, intelligent production

In the context of rising labor costs, to enhance the digitalization of textile equipment, intelligent technology has become the textile industry to improve labor productivity and product quality and stability of the important means. First of all, the introduction of high-end production machines to a certain extent can alleviate the urgent need for textile workers, the depreciation cost of the machine instead of increasing wages and salaries, a better transfer of the risk of rising labor costs. Secondly, the introduction of intelligent production network facilitates enterprises to better grasp the whole process of product production dynamically, so as to enable enterprises to reduce production costs. Intelligent platform can also improve product precision, so that the fineness of textile products beyond the artificial limit.