Can America continue to be great after the election of Autobots?

Those who have advantages need to move slowly and steadily, step by step, and only when the situation is unfavorable do they want to muddy the water and make a sudden attack. None of this can be solved by Biden. In the face of the historical trend, the power of an individual is very small, even if this person is the president of the United States.

Text/"Autobot" Huang

This year's American election is like an American drama. Full of gimmicks, the mid-term continues to reverse. There may be too many pits dug in the later period, which is easy to rot.

Election day was inconclusive. The last time this scene went back to 20 years ago, George W. Bush and Al Gore met in Florida. For two 70-year-old candidates, it is still difficult to fall asleep after the "longest day". After Wisconsin, Biden once again reversed with a slight advantage in Michigan. However, the latter has not yet announced the results.

As of 7: 00 am Beijing time on the 6th, 48 hours have passed since the election day. Biden and Trump's electoral votes are still 264:2 14, and the results of five States have not been announced. If Biden goes to the next state (except Alaska, because there are only three electoral votes), he can make up 270 electoral votes and declare victory. Of course, the Trump team did not admit defeat. Campaign managers and lawyers are seeking to start legal proceedings to get the game into "overtime". But from the outside world, the overall situation has been set, and the struggle only shows the attitude, not the result. According to the latest news, after Georgia, Michigan also rejected the Trump team's claim.

It is difficult for Biden to regain his knowledge.

The United States pioneered political entertainment. In the "great" period, the political agenda was fully exposed, accompanied by the declaration of political legitimacy, which is commonly called the "lighthouse" model. But now the word mentioned on social media is far more ironic than positive. Even Trump likes to say "make America great again", and the subtext is "not so great now".

When politics is out of order, the agenda becomes the deconstruction of political legitimacy. If political legitimacy is one of the pillars of American global strength, the consequences are particularly serious.

Now, Trump and Biden's supporters admit that there is no election that can be compared with the current one on the issue of splitting the United States. Biden declared: "I am running as a Democratic candidate, but I will be in power as the president of the United States. The position of the president of the United States is beyond the party. After that (coming to power), there are no red States and blue States, only the United States. " Biden obviously intends to bridge the differences and reorganize the unprecedented division within the United States. Even many scholars are seriously discussing the prospect of civil war.

When the results were announced at the counting point in Michigan, Trump's radical supporters knocked on the window outside the door and made explicit threats. Before the election, shops in new york hired people to nail doors and windows with strong boards. This reflects that ordinary people are also aware of the degree of differences.

Are Detroit's auto workers still capable?

The election in Michigan is a microcosm of America. 20 16, Trump wins here. From last night to today (Beijing time), Trump led at most 8%, and gradually reversed to Biden's lead of less than 1%. Even the election in wayne county (many states in the United States have wayne county) decided Michigan, and Michigan decided the whole country to some extent, just like Florida in 2000.

Trump knows this well. He flew to Detroit overnight and shouted to voters, "I have fulfilled my promise and will vote now." What he means is to bring employment opportunities to this motor city. In fact, only on 20 18 and 20 19, both GM and Ford made drastic layoffs. General Motors suspended production at eight plants around the world, including three in Detroit, at the expense of retaining the Hamtrak plant. However, this is due to UAW, and Trump may count it as his own.

He also claimed that the United States got rid of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and replaced it with a more favorable tripartite agreement among the United States, Canada and Mexico (American Institute of Management Certification). Although this move has reduced the export quota of Mexican cars to the United States, it has not stopped GM, Ford and FCA from continuously transferring production capacity to Mexico. So, "bringing jobs back to America", at least in Michigan, is a disappearing thing.

In September this year, the unemployment rate in Michigan was 8.5%, which was higher than the national average (7.9%) and seemed much better than the double-digit unemployment rate in summer (the highest was 13%), but the number of people applying for relief and financial bankruptcy increased. People who find short-term jobs and part-time jobs in the United States are no longer unemployed, but they still make ends meet. Seeing young people wandering in the streets of downtown Detroit, you can know that the official figures are unreliable.

In addition, the proportion of white unemployed people has never exceeded that of African-Americans and Hispanics. The proportion of white families in absolute poverty also exceeds the latter two, which disappoints those who voted for Trump on 20 16.

A brief illusion of repair

Some people think that Trump is a rare president who takes his campaign promises seriously. But his inefficiency and disorganization destroyed the global industrial chain, and hurt the auto workers in Michigan and the soybean farmers in Iowa.

Although the trade volume between China and the United States has all been included in the firepower circle of the trade war, the trade deficit of the United States has not been narrowed. Even without the epidemic, the GDP growth rate of the United States failed to reach more than 4% as he promised. In the past four years, the GDP growth rate has never exceeded 2.9%.

America's attitude towards its allies and unprecedented isolationism have made America's commitment retrogress in all directions. The United States has completely withdrawn from the international governance system or has an unconstructive attitude.

Then, if Biden comes to power (which is very likely now), it will help the United States to repair a series of dilapidated images and multilateral and bilateral relations in a short period of time, thus helping to repair the economy.

Of course, it will take Biden at least 1 year to clear Trump's remaining party and his thoughts. Just like when Trump first came to power. In fact, Trump is still largely a former technocrat. But in the end, there were hundreds of vacancies in the White House and the State Council. This not only reflects that Trump has no administrative team, but also reflects that his extreme policies lack the support of professional bureaucrats-just look at the fact that Blue State is spread all over two coasts, and voters with developed economy and good education (vested interests) rarely buy his account.

However, Biden will eventually find that he still leads a Trump America. He can ask the United States to return to the Paris Agreement, WHO, UNESCO and TPP. Of course, the possibility of returning to TPP is very small. As a believer of Obama's line, Biden is full of confidence in regaining globalism, but the new setbacks he encounters will make him understand that the United States can't go back to 200 1 year ago, or even 20 10/year ago.

The same is true of relations with China. Biden said he would reconsider imposing tariffs on China. However, the structural contradiction of their strategic competition has gone beyond the scope of trade. China and the United States must face the huge negative assets of the Trump era's extreme pressure policy on China.

China will agree to sit at the negotiating table, but there is nothing to talk about. Whether it is Taiwan Province Province, Nanhai, or the re-division of industrial chain.

Suppressing Huawei is to defend the position of the United States in the high-end industrial chain; The trade war was launched to defend low-end jobs. Besides bringing a series of economic losses to both sides, it can only make China "beautify" the supply chain. The policy of trying to separate and isolate China from the global supply chain is absurd.

The industrial added value of the United States is about 29% of that of China, 17%, and 5% of that of China. In fact, after 20 10, the United States lost the best opportunity to contain China. Although Trump seems to have done a good job, holding the technology with high-tech chips as the core in his hand, this part is not irreplaceable.

If the United States still had a way, people from all States would not fly to Pudong Airport with cash boxes and grab masks ordered by the French at three times the price.

If the United States had the means, it would not have ordered TSMC, MediaTek and ASML to stop supplying Huawei, while secretly issuing temporary supply licenses to Qualcomm, Micron and Intel.

If the United States still had a way, it would not have happened that Guo Taiming and Trump laid the foundation stone in Racine County, Wisconsin, claiming to invest 654.38 billion US dollars, create thousands of jobs, and then fired empty guns. There is no factory building, no investment (strictly speaking, there is $350 million), no tax incentives, no production capacity, and nothing.

If the United States had a way, it would not have repeatedly squeezed China's bottom line on the issue of Taiwan Province Province and acted as a game breaker. This shows that the status quo is not good for it. Who did George W. Bush call a troublemaker in 2004?

This is a simple truth. People who are in the ascendant need to move slowly and steadily, and only when the situation is unfavorable, do they want to muddy the water and make a sudden attack, so as to comfort themselves after failure.

None of this can be solved by Biden. In the face of the historical trend, the power of the individual is very small, even if this person is the president of the United States. (Text/"Autobot" Huang, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot, and the copyright belongs to Autobot.

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