Where will Xingtai Iron and Steel Plant be relocated?

There is a big V in Weibo asking when you will use the word "winter is coming". I left the following comments:

When introducing the situation of iron and steel industry

What a sad reality. Happiness depends on misfortune, and misfortune depends on misfortune. After careful analysis, the reality may not be so pessimistic, but it may be more pessimistic. So I want to make a few points, maybe it's pain, maybe it's itching, maybe it's refreshing. Please judge for yourself.

As I said before, I graduated from metallurgical engineering, went to a small and medium-sized stainless steel factory and stayed in the first line for about a year. So there must be wrong ideas, inaccurate information and individual typos.

Viewpoint 1: China still needs a lot of steel, and steel is by no means a sunset industry.

When I was in college, I heard a point that China's per capita steel savings (refers to the total amount of steel in a country's actual metal assets, including all kinds of machinery and equipment, buildings, railways, ships, automobiles, home appliances, military weapons and steel products, etc. ) is far less than developed countries. According to the estimation of steel reserves of major steel-producing countries in the world (Xie Kaihui), we estimate a figure on this basis. The steel reserves of the United States are about 6 billion tons, that of Japan is about 2.5 billion tons and that of China is about 8.5 billion tons. Roughly taking 320 million people in the United States, 65.438+300 million people in Japan and 65.438+35 million people in China, we can get the approximate data of per capita steel saving: 65.438+08.75 tons in the United States, 65.438+09.23 tons in Japan and only 6.3 tons in China. So from this perspective, China still needs a lot of steel, and steel is by no means a sunset industry.

On the other hand, China will continue to promote urbanization. In 2008, the average level of urbanization in the world was 49.9%, while the level of urbanization in developed countries was generally above 70%. The urbanization level of some developing countries and some newly industrialized countries seems to be equivalent to that of China, but it is also much higher than that of China. Find more abundant data, as shown in figure 1. And this also needs steel support.

Figure 1. Urbanization level of major countries in the world

Viewpoint 2: China's steel production in recent years is indeed excessive.

According to the statistics released by the World Iron and Steel Association in June, 200015, the global crude steel output reached16.62 million tons, and the crude steel output of China reached 822.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year, and its global share dropped from 49.7% in the previous year to 49.5%. This is the so-called:

World first, China second.

How much did we use to produce so much? I don't know.

However, according to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national crude steel capacity utilization rate was 82% in 20 10, and only 72% in 20 12. Capacity utilization rate can be understood as the ratio of actual output to full-load theoretical output. For example, I can cook ten dishes a day, but only seven, and my capacity utilization rate is 70%. Why not cook eight or nine or even ten dishes? Oh, I can't eat alone without a girlfriend.

PS: What is our production capacity? The blue bar in figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Overall data of China crude steel.

Note: Some data are forecast data or estimated data.

Viewpoint 3 Overcapacity leads to serious homogenization competition in steel industry, including low-end and high-end.

This is easy to understand. In the past, China lacked steel, especially steel. You can almost say how much you ate when you came. After eating, you wiped your mouth and asked if it was enough. There are many rich people in China. Rich people want to make money. As soon as you see the business opportunity, that boy, go! At that time, as long as we could practice, we could make a steady profit without losing money, but there were not many factories. According to former workers, the rebar of a factory fell to the ground and broke when getting on the bus! The steel bar is broken! Sold!

Under the huge profits, we went to new projects together, causing a financial crisis, and then found overcapacity. New projects have low requirements for low-end steel, which can probably be practiced with a little tinkering, but the requirements are higher. As for special steel, male and female servants can't do it. So now low-end steel is really not as cheap as cabbage. Here you are.

Of course, there are also many lucky, discerning and rich enterprises in the steel industry, and they are also developing high-end production capacity when everyone blindly expands low-end production capacity. So this passage appeared in the 20 14 iron and steel industry operation and 20 15 prospect of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology:

Industrial concentration has decreased, and homogenization competition has further spread to high-end products. In recent years, the benefit of the steel industry is not good, and the willingness of enterprises to merge and reorganize has declined. In 20 14, the output of the former 10 crude steel enterprises accounted for 36.6% of the national total output, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year. The high-quality plate projects of large iron and steel enterprises are mostly high-end products such as automobile plates and electrical steel, and there are signs of surplus. The market pressure of low-grade oriented electrical steel, non-oriented electrical steel and ordinary quality automobile plate is further increased, and the homogenization competition of high-end products is increasingly intensified.

Viewpoint 4 Overcapacity leads to thin or even negative profits of iron and steel enterprises.

Don't say anything, just go to the picture.

Figure 3. Industry sales profit rate (key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises) (some are the whole industry, some are only large and medium-sized enterprises)

In 20 10, the average level of industrial enterprises in China was 6.2%. There is a voice in the industry that low-end steel products are profitable only because of high-end steel products. In other words, enterprises with technological advantages can earn a little, otherwise they will lose money.

Viewpoint 5 Operational difficulties lead to the difficulty and high cost of bank loan financing, and the capital chain becomes more fragile.

If you lose money, the bank will not lend you money and will force you to repay the loan. It should be common to borrow money from Bank A today to buy raw materials for production, sell products tomorrow, and borrow money from Bank B to pay back to Bank A to buy raw materials and rob Peter to pay Paul. (the profit is a drop in the bucket or even negative, and the loan is still unclear. Suddenly, I won't lend to Bank A next time! What should I do? Raw materials can't be bought back, stop! Stop production for maintenance! B bank urges loans, where does it get the money if it doesn't produce? It is also necessary to make losses in production. As long as it is produced, it is possible to repay it. If it is not produced, it will never be repaid. So Bank B continued to bite the bullet (; P0YU7yl: I'm sorry that these characters were visited by a cat. All I have to do is type the question mark at the back. ), forcing steel mills to produce. Or the enterprise finally found a D bank loan, yes, the interest rate is going up again. (This paragraph is a personal guess, not touching the management level, just a guess. )

Personal experience: It is normal for steel mills to stop production and repair in the second half of the year (medium frequency furnace, electric furnace and ladle refining furnace, mainly electric arc furnace). I don't know when I can get my salary, so I'm vague. After I left my job, there was even a saying that I would stop production and only issue a minimum living allowance (practice? )。

Viewpoint 6: If you grow up, you will die; if you grow up, you may live.

The future of small and medium-sized enterprises is bleak. Although production is very flexible, it can ignore environmental protection and evade supervision, and it is relatively easy to make profits, but there are still more fundamental problems that are difficult to solve. First, financing is difficult, the financing method is single and the risk is high. Second, technology is backward, and new technologies are piled up with money. Third, management is difficult, there is no perfect system and the quality of personnel is not high. Fourth, sales are difficult and sales channels are narrow. Fifth, the supply of raw materials is difficult, and the reputation of enterprises is difficult to be recognized.

Big companies may survive.

Large enterprises can create an industry situation, saying that there is no winter in late autumn.

Large enterprises can build an industry platform, and it is clear at a glance who makes money by singing opera or buying tickets.

Large enterprises are not afraid of losses, and big losses are achievements.

It is easy for large enterprises to reduce costs. At the beginning, money was willful, but now it is money if it is not willful.

Large enterprises are more likely to borrow money and will not refund the cash if they have it.

Large enterprises are more secure, please arrange employees before closing down. (I want to interrupt here: I accidentally caught a glimpse of a person's WeChat chat record on the bus before leaving my job. Even employees of private enterprises, when they were questioned about wage arrears and were on the verge of bankruptcy, even chose to shrink their heads, believing that the state would uphold justice. Oh, I said it alone, without interruption. )

……

The most painful point of view 7 is Iron Man!

The steel plant is very closed. Serious pollution makes almost all steel mills not around big cities (it is increasingly impossible to build cities by factories, and it is even more impossible to build cities by factories). There are roughly two kinds at present. One is the closure of large factories. The closure of large factories can be closed to a person without leaving the factory, such as Pangang. It is said that kindergartens, primary schools, middle schools, universities, canteens, hospitals, supermarkets, barbershops and other living facilities have everything in short; Small factories close down because although living facilities are not complete, they usually work in three shifts or even two shifts, with a single holiday every week and low wages. Not only do you have no time to go out, but even if you go out, you have no money.

I'm afraid of "\\I8[ (cat language)".

When it comes to money, you can say income in general, and income should be said together with position. A steel mill in southwest China said. The minimum wage for ordinary workers is 2000~2500 yuan/month, which may be the only working income of the whole family after deducting five insurances and one gold. In addition, most diplomas are primary schools or junior high schools, and there is no room for promotion. A diploma may be better. The starting point may be 2.5~4K, the group leader may be above 5K, and then it may be the furnace leader and section chief of 8~ 15K. The higher the factory level, the greater the promotion, and all kinds of dividends and gray income. However, because the steel mill is a place that relies on technology on the spot, it is difficult to get a breakthrough because there is not enough time to accumulate. Maybe capable people (including the relationship here is also part of the ability) can reach the level of the factory in 5~8 years, and it is almost impossible for incompetent people to make progress in 5~8 years.

In steel mills, the promotion of general positions will be accompanied by the promotion of knowledge. On the front line, you may only see your own acre of land, which may not take care of everything. Being a small grass-roots leader may have a certain understanding of the upper and lower processes. When the leader of the team or workshop (workshop) arrives, he will gradually realize the production rhythm of the whole factory, pay more attention to cost and quality, and may have contact with upstream suppliers and downstream distributors. At the factory or company level, you will pay more attention to the whole production and operation, and have a certain understanding and understanding of human resources, finance, supply and marketing. In other words, the road is getting wider and wider, but it will be a particularly long process to get to the point where you don't rely on professional technology at all, especially since the previous knowledge accumulation is too slow, it is difficult to see hope.

It is such a long process, which is both opportunity cost and sunk cost. The so-called opportunity is that if you endure long enough, you will have the opportunity to go to a higher level and discover a bigger world. The so-called sunk cost means that if you don't want to go to the end of a road, but choose a new one, then all your previous efforts, sufferings and accumulation will be in vain. I've met too many people who have worked in steel mills for 3-5 years, and their academic qualifications are not low. They can't find jobs, have no savings, or even have girlfriends (steel mills don't have single girls). Go, not willing; Stay, there is no hope. Where are you going?

Most of the tangled people mentioned above will not leave. Their livelihood skills are almost useless because they are out of the steel mill. What percentage of people who want to do general or interdisciplinary things are better than those who work under the same conditions? Those graduate students are here to do this major. What are the chances of winning? To start a business, what is lacking is capital and projects, and what is not lacking is risk. Don't leave, you still have a job; Walking is almost unemployment-and unemployment is unbearable for people of this age.

Eight winds winter has come, and spring can't be far away.

The above may be too pessimistic, but I want to say something optimistic. In fact, it may be a good thing that the steel industry is so difficult now. Overcapacity is the main cause of all difficulties and pain points, and it will naturally be better to decompose some. Of course, this is a very irresponsible statement (I don't have to bear those responsibilities). After all, every steel plant is a powerful engine to stimulate local economic growth. What should we do if we hire so many workers? What about the peripheral service industry (I only ask the formal service industry this question). However, it is still going to collapse. Since last year, not one or two famous domestic steel mills have merged and reorganized, and there are countless steel mills that have been downsized this year.

The pain is certain. How long the pain will last is uncertain. It will be fine after the pain. When it hurts, it is the time when all the steel mills that should close down close down.

In addition, "internet plus" and big data are new opportunities for the steel industry. Although I don't quite understand it, the use of these two new technologies (concepts) is of great significance to the rational layout of production capacity, including improving quality and reducing costs.

"Winter is coming" is Xu Lejiang's view on the steel industry. It used to be said that it was only in late autumn. These people who stand at the top of the industry will naturally see farther and estimate more accurately. Time has not stopped, and it is a little closer to spring.

Viewpoint 9 How to retain talents

This is an additional pain point. It is really difficult for steel mills and even the steel industry to retain talents. Take college students as an example.

First of all, parents who know a little about the steel industry will not let their children choose metallurgy and other related majors. Even after graduating from college, most undergraduates will change careers directly if they know something about steel mills.

Secondly, there will be a huge gap for graduates who go to steel mills. First, the school's professional practice is too little, too far away from production; Second, the working environment of the steel mill itself is difficult; Third, the human environment of the steel plant is far from the ivory tower of the school. This huge gap cannot be easily eliminated or accepted. Once it is unacceptable, people will leave.

Moreover, the treatment of steel mills is really afraid to look at it. Between students, majors are different and industries are different. Others at least get high salaries cleanly and are shameful, just like migrant workers who only make contributions-more importantly, they pay more than those students. Don't say that people can't compare with others, be content, and say that "not enough" means "enough" is hooliganism.

Also, the development prospects are really worrying. Don't talk about others, just me (of course, I'm not a talent, but I am, let alone a talent. )。 It's not too bad, but it's hopeless. Whether the factory can survive is one thing, and how many years it will take to survive is another. My parents are old, and there is no deposit or industry at home. I really can't afford to gamble. That is not my own future, but the happiness of my family. I just want to give my parents a better life when they are not too old, which steel mills can't give.

In addition, the human environment of steel mills, I am directly blind. There is an old worker urinating on the road (crown block, usually operated by female workers), and he is not ashamed but proud; People in steel mills did not cover up eating, drinking, whoring and gambling; Even the little girl who delivered the meal, those old guys (children are about the same age as that little girl) are touching; I'm embarrassed to take it out like I'm drunk to death.

Finally, I dare not think about the steel industry where there are not enough talents flowing in and staying.

(Source: Zhihu)