Why is manufacturing still the main driving force of China's national economic growth?

The mode of economic growth refers to the input, combination and use of various production factors that promote economic growth, which can be divided into two types: extensive and intensive. The transformation of economic growth mode is from extensive growth mode to intensive growth mode. It is very important to change the mode of economic growth. Over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, but the change of growth mode is not satisfactory. The characteristics of high input, high consumption, high emission and low efficiency are still obvious. Without fundamentally changing the growth mode, it is impossible to achieve sound and rapid economic development. 1. The importance and urgency of accelerating the transformation of economic growth mode. Changing the mode of economic growth is the need to reduce the pressure on resources and environment and realize the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. As a large developing country with a large population, China is relatively short of per capita resources, and the per capita resources of many important resources are far below the world average. At present, China's land, fresh water, energy, mineral resources and environmental conditions have seriously restricted its economic development. For example, the external dependence of major mineral resources has increased from 5% in 1990 to more than 50% in these two years. At the same time, the utilization efficiency of resources in China is low. In terms of input and output of resources, China's GDP in 2004 accounted for 4% of the world's GDP at the current exchange rate, but it consumed 8% of the world's crude oil, 10% of electricity, 19% of aluminum, 20% of copper, 310% of coal and 30% of the world's total. Especially, the energy consumption is high, and the energy elasticity coefficient (GDP growth rate of energy consumption) has been below 1 from the reform and opening up to 2000, and reached1.29,5438+0-2004 in 2006, of which 1.6 in 2004. This high-input, high-consumption, high-emission and low-efficiency growth mode in extensive economic is unsustainable. We should achieve the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way and the strategic goal of quadrupling the gross domestic product by 2020 compared with 2000. If we continue to adopt extensive economic growth mode, China's resources and environment will be overwhelmed. During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the energy consumption per unit output value decreased by 20%, which was 4% last year, but increased by 0.8% in the first three quarters. Only by accelerating the transformation of economic growth mode can we fundamentally reduce the pressure of new economic development goals on resources and environment and promote sustainable economic and social development. 2. Changing the mode of economic growth is the need to effectively improve the quality of economic growth. Extensive growth mode leads to a kind of speed benefit, that is, only when the economic growth rate reaches a high level can the economic benefit be improved. The growth of speed benefit mainly depends on the overload operation of machinery and equipment and the overtime work of workers, especially the rise of product prices, while the quality and combination of production factors have not been improved, and the actual productivity and growth quality have not been improved. Under this model, many localities and enterprises have formed a tendency to pursue growth rate unilaterally. At the same time, the growth mode of high input and high consumption also leads to an excessive proportion of energy and raw materials industries, which is not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the improvement of economic growth quality. For example, in 2004, the growth rate of electricity and coal in China was significantly higher than that of GDP, and the elasticity coefficient of electricity growth was as high as 1.6, but the tight supply and demand situation has not been reversed. Therefore, we must speed up the transformation of economic growth mode, change the situation of over-reliance on growth rate and high proportion of basic industries, and turn to relying on scientific and technological progress to promote the optimal allocation of resources and effectively improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth. 3. Changing the mode of economic growth is the need to improve the quality of import and export trade and enhance China's international competitiveness. At present, China's foreign trade has entered an important turning point, and it is at a critical stage from quantitative growth to quality and efficiency growth, and from a big trading country to a powerful trading country. First, speed and efficiency are not coordinated enough. In the past three years, China's foreign trade has increased by more than 30% on average, but the quality and efficiency have not improved simultaneously. Taking textiles as an example, compared with 200 1, the export quantity of products with quotas cancelled in China has soared, and the export prices to the United States and the European Union have dropped by about 60%. In 2003, China exported 60% of the world's footwear, and the average unit price was only 15 in Spain and12 in Italy. At the same time, many export commodities in China are "three highs and one low", with high material consumption, high energy consumption, high pollution and low added value. The characteristics of China's export quantity expansion and incremental inefficiency are obvious. Second, trade frictions have increased. Although the trade volume of China accounts for less than 6% of the world, the anti-dumping cases against us are as high as 15%. By 2003, China has been the country that suffered the most anti-dumping for nine consecutive years. From 1995 to 2003, WTO members initiated 24 16 anti-dumping cases, including 356 cases against China. In 2004, 16 countries and regions launched 57 anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguard measures and special safeguard investigations against China, involving a total amount of 126 billion US dollars. For example, China's textile exports account for 73% of the Japanese market, 17% of the United States and 16% of the European Union, all ranking first in the international market, and there is limited room for further expansion. If we continue to engage in quantitative expansion and low-price competition, it will lead to more and more anti-dumping The same is true for imports. In 2003, China imported iron ore, accounting for 6 1% of the global trade volume, which caused the international market price to rise by nearly 2 times and the international freight rate to rise by 1.9 times, which aroused the concern and worry of the international community. Therefore, trade friction will not only cause losses to our country, but also be detrimental to the goal of common development, which is unsustainable. 4. Changing the mode of economic growth is the need to prevent economic ups and downs and maintain stable and healthy economic development. The process of economic growth in China has experienced many ups and downs, which has brought great influence to the operation and development of the national economy. The reason lies in the influence of extensive economic's growth mode to a great extent. This is mainly manifested in: First, it leads to the expansion of investment demand. Extensive growth mode mainly relies on a large increase in capital investment to promote economic growth. In the rising stage of the economic cycle, the growth of fixed assets investment often greatly exceeds the economic growth rate. In addition, under this growth mode, local governments and enterprises are focusing on projects, increasing investment and expanding economic scale, which is prone to blind investment and low-level redundant construction, further aggravating the expansion of investment demand. The second is to lead to an increase in the price level. Extensive growth mode is characterized by high consumption and low efficiency. In the process of economic growth, the consumption of material materials increases at a high speed, which makes the demand for production materials products excessively expand and the price level rises accordingly. If the price of the means of production rises sharply and lasts for a long time, it will inevitably be transmitted to the price of consumer goods, causing the overall price level to rise. The third is the bottleneck of basic industries and infrastructure. An outstanding performance of extensive growth mode is that the industrial sector consumes a high proportion of energy and raw materials. When the economic growth is accelerated, the processing industry has the ability to expand rapidly in a short period of time, and the consumption of energy and raw materials has increased sharply, which has formed a greater demand pressure on the extractive industry and transportation industry. However, these basic industries and infrastructure departments have weak short-term expansion ability, and it is difficult to adapt to the sharp increase in demand, and soon there will be industrial bottlenecks. Economic ups and downs, the root of the problem still lies in the extensive economic growth mode. Only by accelerating the transformation of economic growth mode can we fundamentally eliminate the ups and downs of the economy, prevent the recurrence of this stubborn disease, and make the national economy enter the track of steady and rapid development. Second, several points of changing the mode of economic growth Changing the mode of economic growth is a major systematic project, which requires long-term and unremitting efforts. The most important thing is to fully implement Scientific Outlook on Development, improve the ability of independent innovation, adjust and optimize the economic structure, pay attention to saving energy and resources, protect the ecological environment and deepen the system reform. 1. To change the mode of economic growth, we must improve the ability of independent innovation. In order to narrow the technology gap with developed countries, domestic market share is often transferred to multinational companies in exchange for foreign advanced technology, which is usually called market for technology. This can narrow the technological gap and promote the development of emerging industries. We emphasize independent innovation and do not exclude technology introduction and utilization of foreign capital. However, due to the intergenerational differences in product life cycle and technology, developing countries always exchange second-rate or third-rate technologies. Multinational companies are bound to "keep one hand" in technology transfer, and it is difficult for developing countries to obtain core technologies. From a practical point of view, while introducing technology, insisting on independent research and innovation will help enterprises improve their technical level and market share. Focusing on improving the ability of independent innovation, relying on scientific and technological progress to promote structural optimization and upgrading. First, accelerate the development of key technologies that have a significant driving effect on intensive economic growth. These key technologies include not only cutting-edge technologies and core technologies that have a breakthrough driving significance for the development of high-tech industries, but also * * * technologies, key technologies and supporting technologies that can promote the upgrading of traditional industries. Second, vigorously develop high-tech industries. Increase support and promote high-tech industrialization. 2. Adjusting and optimizing the economic structure is an important link to improve the quality and coordination of economic growth. At present, the outstanding problems in China's industrial structure are: the relationship between primary, secondary and tertiary industries is uncoordinated, and the development of agriculture and service industry is lagging behind; Some industries have overcapacity but are still blindly expanding; The contradiction of insufficient supply of energy raw materials and high consumption coexist; The industrial organization structure is unreasonable, the enterprise scale is uneconomical and the degree of specialization is low. (1) Continue to strengthen the basic position of agriculture in the national economy. The fragile agricultural foundation and the obvious lag of rural economic and social development are the most prominent contradictions in China's economic structure. In 2005, the proportion of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in GDP was 12.4%, 47.3% and 40.3% respectively. It is an inevitable trend that the proportion of the primary industry with agriculture as the main body will decline. The problem is that the decline in the proportion of agriculture in China is not accompanied by the synchronous transfer of agricultural labor. At present, there are still 360 million people engaged in agricultural production, with a GDP of only about 2 trillion yuan and a per capita output of 5,550 yuan. Including migrant workers, there are 500 million people employed in non-agricultural industries, with GDP 16.23 trillion yuan and per capita output of 32,500 yuan, 5.85 times that of the former. This structural difference leads to the lack of agricultural expansion and reproduction accumulation capacity, which is the main reason for the lag of rural economic and social development and the structural reason for the widening income gap between urban and rural areas. (2) Continue to strengthen the construction of basic industries and infrastructure in a differentiated and focused manner. Under the guidance of special planning, we will do a good job in the development of energy industries such as electricity, coal and oil, and continue to strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as water conservancy, transportation and communication. Pay close attention to the introduction and implementation of industrial policies and plans for steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and fertilizer, and rationally control the development speed of important raw material industries. (3) Actively develop the tertiary industry, especially the modern service industry. Pay close attention to formulating implementation opinions to accelerate the reform and development of China's service industry, deepen the industrial division of labor in various fields of service industry, and guide the service industry to develop in a professional direction. Vigorously develop emerging service industries such as modern finance, modern logistics and information services, accelerate the development of intermediary services such as legal services, scientific and technological services and consulting services, actively develop consumption upgrading services such as tourism, culture and sports, and encourage and support the development of community service industries. To correctly handle the relationship between the development of capital and technology-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries, we should not only accelerate the development of capital and technology-intensive industries and promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also continue to develop labor-intensive industries and promote the expansion of social employment. (4) Focus on solving the problem of industrial overcapacity. From the perspective of product capacity, the current overcapacity problem is mainly concentrated in resource-intensive and capital-intensive heavy chemical industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, coke, cement, automobiles and chemical fiber. The reasons for the relative overcapacity are as follows: First, the investment in fixed assets has grown too fast, and the production capacity formed by investment in previous years has been put into production one after another, making the supply capacity exceed the effective demand; Second, the market access rules are imperfect or poorly implemented, and a number of new projects with backward technical and economic level have been launched; Third, the pricing mechanism of production factors is unreasonable, and the entry threshold of heavy chemical industry is too low, leading to low-level redundant construction. The main manifestations are as follows: a large number of investors who do not have the economic ability enter the capital-intensive heavy chemical industry through low-cost land supply agreement; The right to exploit natural resources and the right to discharge pollution are obtained free of charge or at a low price, and there is neither a market pricing mechanism nor effective supervision. As a result, some enterprises have obtained excess profits, but they have not assumed the necessary social responsibilities. (5) Actively adjust the industrial organization structure. Due to the long-term influence of the mode of production of small-scale peasant economy, the socialization of production, circulation and consumption in China is not sufficient. Self-contained, "big and complete" and "small and complete" situations are still widespread. First of all, according to the trend of concentration of production factors, speed up the concentration of production capacity of resource-intensive industries to large enterprises. Such as coal mining, steel and nonferrous metal smelting and rolling, petrochemical industry, thermal power generation, building materials, paper making and other industries. This concentration is conducive to the use of large-scale equipment with advanced technology, the integration of upstream and downstream, reducing the consumption of energy and raw materials per unit product, reducing waste discharge and managing the environment, improving labor productivity and developing circular economy. Secondly, leading by leading enterprises, we will promote the socialization and specialization of processing, assembly and manufacturing. Most enterprises in China have a low degree of specialization, and most of the production processes from raw material procurement, casting, processing of various parts to product assembly and packaging are completed within the enterprise. If there are no small and specialized enterprises in the processing and assembly manufacturing industry, there will be no large and strong mass production. Under the condition of specialized division of labor, small and specialized, small and sophisticated enterprises are the basis for realizing large-scale production. The adjustment of industrial organization structure should vigorously promote the specialized division of labor outside the core enterprises. 3. Pay attention to energy conservation and rational utilization. In the past two years, the rapid economic growth promoted by extensive methods has led to tight supply and demand of energy and important raw materials. As a large developing country with a great demand for resources, it is unsustainable to rely on a large number of imported resources to support economic growth. Therefore, to alleviate the contradiction between energy resources and economic and social development in China, we must base ourselves on China and greatly improve the utilization efficiency of energy resources. First, resolutely implement the policy of giving priority to development and conservation. Second, pay close attention to the formulation of special plans to clarify the goals and policies and measures for energy conservation and consumption reduction in various industries. To control the advanced level at home and abroad, in-depth analysis of energy-saving potential, determine the standards and objectives of energy-saving management in all aspects, such as focusing on the use of electricity for motors, air conditioners and lighting, implementing science of electricity and saving electricity; Establish a water-saving index system, and improve the standards and limits of equipment water use; Strengthen the management of land conservation and promote the intensive use of land. Third, vigorously develop circular economy. Circular economy is based on the principle of "reduction, reuse and recycling" and is characterized by low consumption, low emission and high efficiency, which is an important form conducive to saving and rational utilization of energy resources. The fourth is to strengthen the management of mineral resources development. The exploitation and utilization rate of mineral resources in China is low and the waste is serious. The total recovery rate is only 30%, which is 20% lower than the advanced level abroad. * * * The comprehensive utilization rate of associated mineral resources is only about 35%, and most of the more than 20 minerals associated with coal measures are not utilized. The tailings utilization rate of some super-large complex metal deposits is only 10%. Fifth, vigorously advocate the production mode and consumption mode of saving energy and resources, form a saving consciousness and atmosphere in the whole society, and accelerate the construction of a conservation-oriented society. 4. Strengthen environmental protection and ecological construction, and promote the harmony between man and nature. Extensive economic growth has led to serious environmental pollution and ecological destruction. According to the World Bank's estimation, from 65438 to 0995, the losses caused by air and water pollution accounted for 8% of GDP in China. According to the estimation of experts from China Academy of Sciences, the losses caused by environmental pollution and ecological destruction accounted for 15% of GDP in 2003. To change the mode of economic growth, we should reverse the situation of high emissions and pollution as soon as possible, solve the problem of environmental pollution that seriously threatens people's health and safety, and further strengthen environmental protection and ecological construction. We must deepen the reform and form an institutional mechanism to promote the transformation of economic growth mode. First, it is necessary to effectively transform government functions from the protagonist of economic activities to a public service-oriented government. To truly separate government from enterprise, government from capital, government from business, and government from market intermediary organizations, the government shall not directly interfere in the business activities of enterprises. The second is to deepen fiscal and taxation reform. The current fiscal and taxation system encourages all localities to be keen on extensive industrial development, especially heavy chemical industry, because of the rapid GDP growth and high fiscal and taxation income. In the future, it is necessary to establish a central and local fiscal revenue and expenditure system that is compatible with the power of affairs; Financial funds will no longer be invested in general competitive industries, but in public services; Standardize the land revenue management law, and bring all extra-budgetary income such as land revenue and special funds into budget management; Adjust and improve resource tax and value-added tax, implement fuel tax and steadily implement property tax; Wait a minute. Third, deepen the price reform, focusing on making the prices of production factors and resource products reflect the market supply and demand situation and the scarcity of resources. Fourth, reform the system of assessment, promotion and appointment of cadres. The performance of cadres depends not only on the growth rate of GDP (and green GDP), but also on the level of market supervision, social management and public services, including employment, social security, education, culture, environmental protection, ecological protection, medical and health care, social order, credit and improvement of the legal environment.