Tenth Five-Year Plan: New Goals, New Orientation and New Direction (Tianfeng Macro Song)

Text: Tianfeng Macro Song Xuetao/Contact Zhao Honghe

First, the overall judgment of the current and future situation.

The overall judgment of the meeting is that "China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, but there are new developments and changes in opportunities and challenges." The new opportunities mainly come from China's transformation to high-quality development, which shows certain advantages compared with other major economies in the world in terms of "social system, governance efficiency, material foundation, human resources and market space"; The new challenges are mainly related to the "great change in a hundred years" that the world is experiencing today, and the international environment is complicated; At the same time, the problem of insufficient development imbalance in China is still outstanding, involving reform and innovation, agricultural foundation, urban and rural regional development, income distribution, ecological environment protection, people's livelihood security, social governance and so on. Therefore, on the basis of "coordinating the overall situation of the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation and the great changes that have never happened in the world in a hundred years", we should "keep our strategic strength and do our own thing well" and define the main goals of the next stage of economic and social development with the new five-year plan and the long-term plan for 2035.

Second, new development goals.

The overall goal is "to achieve sustained and healthy economic development on the basis of obvious improvement in quality and efficiency", without mentioning the specific growth target in the next five years.

Judging from the actual situation, the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward the quantitative target of economic growth in the form of "doubling the GDP in 2002 compared with 200 1 year". The background is that "building a well-off society in an all-round way" is coming to an end, so it is presented in the form of "new target requirements". The communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee did not mention the quantitative target, but the full text of the official announcement clearly pointed out that "the annual GDP growth rate is 7%".

It is worth noting that the long-term goal for 2035 mentions that "the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries". According to 20 10262 domestic per capita nominal GDP 10262 USD and moderately developed countries' per capita nominal GDP 15000-20000 USD, it is assumed that in the next 15 years, the per capita nominal GDP of moderately developed countries will increase by 2.5%-3.5%, and that of China will increase by 5. According to the GDP deflator of 2%-2.5%, the average growth rate of real per capita GDP should be between 3. 1%-5.7%. It can be seen that in order to achieve the long-term goal in 2035, China will still maintain a certain economic growth rate in the future, but the path and difficulty of the final realization are quite uncertain, which is closely related to the global economic situation, international diplomatic environment and domestic circular development. Achieving the goal is both feasible and challenging.

Third, the orientation of emerging industries.

Science and technology industry: This plenary session sublimated the general requirements of the industrial field from "building a new industrial system" at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee to "developing a modern industrial system", further extended the connotation from "manufacturing power", "strategic industry" and "modern service industry", emphasized "quality power, network power and digital China", and demanded "upgrading the modernization level of industrial chain and supply chain".

Real estate finance: "Insisting on focusing on the real economy" shows that the probability of real estate speculation, excessive financial liberalization and even bubble reappearance is further reduced. The medium-and long-term goal of real estate is to steadily decline and gradually reduce its dependence on the economy without causing systemic risks, while finance is to return to its origin and insist on serving the real economy.

Infrastructure investment: It is worth noting that this part mentioned "promoting infrastructure construction as a whole", which may mean that infrastructure, especially new infrastructure, is still one of the important starting points for high-quality development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to maintain a certain low growth level.

Green development: Consistent with the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, green development and sustainable development are still the basic requirements for the next stage of economic development, which may involve energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental protection, clean energy and so on. Correspondingly, "promoting the energy revolution" mentioned in the part of modern industry may put forward higher requirements for the development of new energy and clean energy industries during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.

Fourth, the new policy direction.

Independent innovation: The orientation of innovation is completely consistent with the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, and it is the "overall core position". However, compared with all-round innovations such as "theory, system, science and technology, culture" at that time, this plenary session focused on the connotation of innovation and clearly pointed out that "self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology is the strategic support for national development", and the strategic positioning of independent innovation was further improved. Independent innovation is an important support for China's "by going up one flight of stairs's self-reliance" under the "great change in a hundred years".

Domestic market: This is an important proposition that was not mentioned at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee but has been repeatedly emphasized this year. The background is the profound changes in the external environment in recent years, which requires us to "form a strong domestic market" to cope with potential external shocks. The strategic basis for realizing a strong domestic market is "expanding domestic demand", the way to achieve it is "dredging domestic circulation and promoting dual circulation at home and abroad", and the specific measures are "promoting consumption in an all-round way and expanding investment space". Therefore, consumption and investment are still the two key carriages to stimulate domestic demand during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and reasonable and effective investment is still an important starting point to achieve economic development, improve quality and increase efficiency.

Aging: Compared with the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, this plenary session deleted "adhering to the basic national policy of family planning" and proposed "implementing a national strategy to actively respond to the aging population". The problem of population aging in China is becoming more and more serious. Considering that population is a long-term factor, this problem may be further fermented during the tenth five-year plan period. Compared with Japan, South Korea and other developed economies in East Asia in 1980s, China's current relative development level is similar, but the problem of population aging appears earlier and more severe, and it is urgent to strengthen the response. It can be predicted that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the encouragement policy for fertility issues may continue to increase, and the restriction policy may gradually decrease.

Risk warning

Team introduction

Song Hong Team Leader

Ph.D. in Economics, North Carolina State University, USA, most valuable analyst in 20 18- 19 Golden Bull Award, and cutting-edge analyst in 20 19 Golden Kirin Award. He has published papers on the work of the central bank, CF40 financial books and many academic papers.

Go to Jing Shu.

Master of London Business School, mainly responsible for overseas macro and large-scale asset research. He worked for AHL, the core quantitative hedge fund of Eastman Investment Company.

Zhao Honghe

Master of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, mainly responsible for domestic macroeconomic and policy research. Worked in the development strategy department of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation.

Lin Yan

Master of Financial Engineering, Wuhan University, mainly responsible for the research of asset allocation. I work in Shang Hong Assets Company.

Guo Weiwei

Master of Finance, Wuhan University, mainly responsible for industry comparison and industry trend research.