If Russia and Ukraine start a war how the oil price trend analysis

If the Russia-Ukraine conflict heats up, the supply of Russian crude oil exports will inevitably be affected, and the price of oil will easily soar to $120 a barrel, or even up to $150 a barrel, hitting a new record high since July 2008 is not impossible.

S&P Global Platts energy information data show that the North Sea Brent crude oil futures contract reached $100.80 a barrel on Feb. 16, for the first time since 2014 to break through the $100 high.

This spot premium in the futures market suggests that the crude oil market is now at its tightest supply point ever. The biggest reason for this phenomenon is the disturbance of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict situation under the geopolitical premium.

Since mid-December last year, the price of Russian Urals crude oil transported through Ukraine has risen in tandem with global oil prices, driven by the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical crisis. The rise accelerated further after February, when Platts Energy valued Urals crude at $91.00 a barrel on Feb. 11, sharply higher than the $68.35 a barrel on Dec. 2 last year.

WASHINGTON

Platts Energy believes that geopolitics is leading the bullish sentiment in the market. With Russian and Ukrainian troops massing on the border, market concerns about disruptions to oil and gas supplies in Europe are growing. That could amount to 250,000 barrels per day of oil and more than 4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

JPMorgan also warned that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict heats up, Russian crude export supplies will inevitably be affected, and the price of oil could easily soar to $120 a barrel, or even to $150 a barrel, a record high since July 2008, is not unlikely.

However, Huaxia Energy Network noted that from the international oil prices now, Brent crude oil did not continue to rise, but fell back. As of February 18, the price of Brent crude oil is 92.30 U.S. dollars per barrel.

From the domestic point of view, this international oil prices rose on China's new round of refined oil price adjustment also has an impact.